Tropical 2026 Tropics Thread 🌀

[Shaggy]

Not sure I can remember a storm that produced TS force and H force winds to a location for almost 72 hours straight. Maybe Mitch or Dorian but Sinilauku sat over Saipan/rota/Guam for a very very long time.

 

[CyclonicFury]

NC State released their forecast, predicting a near-average season with 12-15 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes. (Graphic from WRAL)

 

[NCSNOW]

I think the shear puts a lid on the Atlantic and we have a much BN year. This EC trough we just started for closing out April into May is perhaps a percussor of things to come over summer and fall 2026

 

[lexxnchloe]

I think the shear puts a lid on the Atlantic and we have a much BN year. This EC trough we just started for closing out April into May is perhaps a percussor of things to come over summer and fall 2026

I doubt the trof is dominant in summer, though it would be nice to cut down on the heat. We have had an East coast trof for years now even with strong Nina's

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS off and running

 

[Tarheel1]

May hurricane on the 18Z GFS, what could go wrong??

 

[Brent]

May hurricane on the 18Z GFS, what could go wrong??View attachment 195804

Oh no... I'm not ready for this haha

 

[vtrap90]

May hurricane on the 18Z GFS, what could go wrong??View attachment 195804

Drought buster!

 

[GaWx]

Lucky us. We got not one but two posters posting about the same fake late in the run GFS hurricane. I hope this isn’t a sign of posts to come ITT.
Can there possibly be a separate thread for fake hurricanes? Wasn’t there one before?

 

[NoSnowATL]

May hurricane on the 18Z GFS, what could go wrong??View attachment 195804

Big bend to Naples. That’s been a track favorite for a few years.

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

View attachment 196034

The Ole GFS with its annual Central American gyre spinoff. Sooner or later, it'll get one to work out.

 

[Wulfer]

Does the GFS take in account for the colder waters from this years winter and spring?

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Does the GFS take in account for the colder waters from this years winter and spring?

Yes. The GFS is coupled.

 

[Brent]

Euro now also showing something trying to form the first few days of June

 

[Shaggy]

Euro now also showing something trying to form the first few days of June View attachment 196159

That would go a long way to help with the drought situation

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The GFS remains insistent on spinning up a CA gyre spinoff. The genesis of the circulation is now within a week, so it deserves a bit more attention. There is some support from the CMC, but the EURO isn't biting.

If nothing else, rain chances in the SE US look to remain elevated.

 

[GaWx]

The GFS remains insistent on spinning up a CA gyre spinoff. The genesis of the circulation is now within a week, so it deserves a bit more attention. There is some support from the CMC, but the EURO isn't biting.

If nothing else, rain chances in the SE US look to remain elevated.
View attachment 196174

 

[lexxnchloe]

The GFS remains insistent on spinning up a CA gyre spinoff. The genesis of the circulation is now within a week, so it deserves a bit more attention. There is some support from the CMC, but the EURO isn't biting.

If nothing else, rain chances in the SE US look to remain elevated.
View attachment 196174

Nice storm whipping into New England

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

GFS for Monday:

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS for Monday:
View attachment 196178

 

[lexxnchloe]