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Severe 2026 Severe Thread 🌩

Key message 1: Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the
area Sunday afternoon and evening, some of which could be severe.

The synoptic pattern becomes highly amplified tomorrow as an intense
Pacific jet diving through the Rockies carves out a vigorous trough
over the Great Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will be underway across the
high plains of Colorado tonight with a rapidly deepening surface low
lifting into the Midwest as pressures fall below 990mb. Resulting
low-level mass response will foster the development of robust wind
fields with a 50-60kt low-level jet transporting moisture north from
the Gulf and Atlantic. Across the Carolinas, this will be further
aided by southeast flow advecting additional moisture off the
Atlantic. The 12z suite of CAMs is in generally good agreement that
at least scattered showers will develop across the area and lift
north tomorrow afternoon within this leading plume of moisture
return as dewpoints surge back into the upper 50s to low 60s.

The uptick in moisture will also support an increasingly unstable
airmass with surface-based CAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range. As such,
varying CAM members depict several embedded thunderstorms within the
broader batch of showers. Any storms will reside in an environment
characteristic of 40-50kts of deep-layer 0-6km vertical wind shear
with 25-30kts of 0-1km shear and 200-250 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH.
Forecast soundings within the near-storm environment reveal strongly
curved hodographs owing to impressively backed southeast winds at
the surface. As such, transient supercell structures will be
possible along with the potential for locally damaging winds and a
couple brief tornadoes should any more robust supercells be able to
take advantage of a favorable environment.


Key message 2: A strong cold front will bring the potential for
severe weather late Sunday night through Monday morning with the
main hazards being damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. We are
only one day out, so start preparing now. Make sure you have
multiple ways to receive warnings and think about where you would
seek safe shelter if a warning was issued for your location.

A highly anomalous and amplified trough will take on a negative tilt
as it lifts from the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the
Appalachians late Sunday night through Monday morning. A very deep
sub 980mb surface low will also shift northeast across the Great
Lakes region with a strong cold front racing east. A well
established line of deep convection will reside within a prefrontal
surface trough with the line of storms rapidly approaching the
mountains very early Monday morning. The line is expected to quickly
push across the area through the morning hours before pushing east
by early afternoon. The main focus will be the potential for a
widespread damaging wind event. A 50kt low-level jet translating
across the region in conjunction with extreme wind fields will
support more than enough wind shear for organized convection. While
thermodynamic parameters won`t be as eye popping overnight, at least
300-500 J/kg of MLCAPE will likely be realized with values
increasing closer to 1000 J/kg east of I-26 through mid to late
morning. This will be more than sufficient for maintenance of a
severe convective line, especially in light of intense forcing and
dynamics. In these cases, strong synoptic forcing from such a
powerful trough can offset poor thermodynamic fields. The main
threat will be for damaging winds along with a few tornadoes,
especially with any northeast bowing line segments or line breaks.

Now is the time to make your severe weather preparations. Make sure
you have multiple ways to receive warnings such as NOAA Weather
Radio, Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA), social media, or local TV
and radio. If you live in a mobile or manufactured home make plans
ahead of time to stay with friends or family who live in a sturdy
building as mobile/manufactured homes are not safe when it comes to
tornadoes.

Latest from GSP for tomorrow and Monday. Fairly strong wording there and this would only be worse if the line slows down. Then again, it may not matter. An event like this one on 2-10-1990 came through before 9 am and brought major severe weather from Pickens to Cherokee counties in SC. Atlanta had a 60+ gust from this event even earlier that morning, a little before 6 am I think.
 
Severe Weather Threat is looking more and more likely on Sunday afternoon in Mississippi and Sunday night in Alabama and Georgia and then Monday South Carolina and North Carolina will need to be weather aware!
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Looks like the end of the most recent HRRR keeps the majority of the discrete activity relatively close to the coast and eastern sections of the region, which would be good news for the western areas that could still see a nasty QLCS, but with the threat a little lower from a lack of instability during the late night and morning. However, the 48 hour HRRR should always be taken with a grain of salt; hopefully the other 18z guidance is coming in like this. 1773518275881.png
 
HailCore said:
Looks like the end of the most recent HRRR keeps the majority of the discrete activity relatively close to the coast and eastern sections of the region, which would be good news for the western areas that could still see a nasty QLCS, but with the threat a little lower from a lack of instability during the late night and morning. However, the 48 hour HRRR should always be taken with a grain of salt; hopefully the other 18z guidance is coming in like this. View attachment 195021
Click to expand...
Why would this be good news? If you are a weather nerd like myself give me the worst. Whatever nature has let’s see it. We aren’t in here for sunny days and clear skies.
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
Severe Weather Threat is looking more and more likely on Sunday afternoon in Mississippi and Sunday night in Alabama and Georgia and then Monday South Carolina and North Carolina will need to be weather aware!
306f799abdf72040ea9357bcf7455a7b.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
This is something to keep an eye on. I would not be surprised to see a moderate risk for some areas from the SPC in tomorrow's forecast for Monday. This could be the first widespread severe weather outbreak for folks in Virginia and the Carolinas in 2026.
 
Stevo24 said:
Why would this be good news? If you are a weather nerd like myself give me the worst. Whatever nature has let’s see it. We aren’t in here for sunny days and clear skies.
Click to expand...
I am the same way, but I try to inject empathy into my desire for severe weather because I know most people don't want it, and I don't want to see terrible damage from it, knowing how destructive it can be to regular people. Best case scenario is tornadoes over forests and open fields, but it doesn't always play out like that.
 
Stevo24 said:
Why would this be good news? If you are a weather nerd like myself give me the worst. Whatever nature has let’s see it. We aren’t in here for sunny days and clear skies.
Click to expand...

Although it obviously occurs regardless of my desires, I especially don’t want severe wx anywhere near myself and my loved ones. The bad (deaths, injuries, and damage) that can come out of it is obvious, especially from tornadoes. People have various reasons for enjoying being on wx boards. Theres no reason to put them all in the same category.

@HailCore
 
NBAcentel said:
Hrrr is nasty
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Yeah, it sure is. It is 2-3 hours slower and now brings 1300 CAPE here to Jonesville instead of 500. It looks especially nasty from the northeast upstate up through central NC. The area from Charlotte up to the Triad may just be ground zero for this. We also now have a small threat for some of us tomorrow afternoon too.
 
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