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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

Vince was originally forecast to peak at around 90kts I'm gonna guess he is an overachiever when the next advisory comes out

IR Satellite Loop for Tropical Cyclone VINCE | Tropical Tidbits https://search.app/8GZiMPaot9WRL82W8

Edit: he jumped to 135kts this afternoon and should peak at 140kts
 
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accu35 said:
Should be a busy year then
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Actually, JB didn’t say 2025 wouldn’t be busy. He said it wouldn’t have the same level of impacts as 2024, which obviously wouldn’t be hard to do due to 2024’s extremely high level of impacts:

“Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Forecast

Named Storms: 15-19
Total Hurricanes: 7-9
Major Hurricanes: 2-3
ACE Index: 120-150

Impact Forecast

Tropical Storm Conditions: 5-7
Total Hurricanes: 3-4
Major Hurricanes: 1-2”

These numbers would mean very active with regard to impacts.
 
From LC

Note that the La Nina episode has largely translated into a negative/neutral ENSO register. If this signature holds through the coming summer, which I think likely, hot weather will emerge dominant in all but the Pacific Northwest and New England. Tropical cyclone potential will probably be a bit higher than last summer/fall. If the European model monthly forecasts are correct, this will be an active Gulf of Mexico scenario, first in the FL Panhandle, then the Mississippi Delta, and finally into Texas by Labor Day weekend. I suspect that the ECMWF idea of a weak El Nino, however, is incorrect. I favor a La Nina comeback (weak to moderate) in the ONDJF time frame before another trend toward warming and ENSO 3.4.
 
lexxnchloe said:
From LC

Note that the La Nina episode has largely translated into a negative/neutral ENSO register. If this signature holds through the coming summer, which I think likely, hot weather will emerge dominant in all but the Pacific Northwest and New England. Tropical cyclone potential will probably be a bit higher than last summer/fall. If the European model monthly forecasts are correct, this will be an active Gulf of Mexico scenario, first in the FL Panhandle, then the Mississippi Delta, and finally into Texas by Labor Day weekend. I suspect that the ECMWF idea of a weak El Nino, however, is incorrect. I favor a La Nina comeback (weak to moderate) in the ONDJF time frame before another trend toward warming and ENSO 3.4.
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It’s hard to believe that the Gulf will have more activity than last year’s epic level of activity there though LC is not outrightly saying that. I hope not.
 
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