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Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

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18z looks awesome. Significant snowstorm for Arizona while I'm out there.

Flakes in Tucson, 3" at my family's place in Nogales
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I didn’t see a problem with the 18Z. Did I miss something?DE12FA59-B15A-40CD-A036-0FC58FBB723A.png
 
DeeeeeTeeeee about to bust a ??on FB with the 0z run! 65B01CFB-3319-41BF-82EF-B71AC974403F.png
 
One trend I’m noticing with the GFS/GEFS is that it’s getting warmer and warmer each run through middle month. They are both fairly consistent with each other. I think this is onto something. If so, I do not see anyone in the southeast receiving a below normal December. The west is in prime spot to see a cold and wintry weather no matter what in December. East has a chance to flip the pattern but it seems much more unlikely IMO.


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Oh my Bouncycorn! 4434ABC8-2F83-42D2-AE99-A4221F701CE1.png
 
One trend I’m noticing with the GFS/GEFS is that it’s getting warmer and warmer each run through middle month. They are both fairly consistent with each other. I think this is onto something. If so, I do not see anyone in the southeast receiving a below normal December. The west is in prime spot to see a cold and wintry weather no matter what in December. East has a chance to flip the pattern but it seems much more unlikely IMO.


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how so?
 

Well if a pattern change occurs around the 20th, I find it very difficult for the east to receive a below average December. November seemed quite chilly to me but it was over 3 degrees above normal.


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Crazy how similar the GEFS is compared to the 6:00 run all the way through hour 330 for the SE. I want cold wintry more than anyone else but this is not encouraging at all. Troubling trend.
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Nothing like waking up to my twitter feed flooded with mid/low level jets, moist sectors, and CAPE.

Boy oh boy do i love severe weather threats in December. Brings great joy to my life...

The immature weather nerd in me wishes people would put more energy & excitement towards Winter weather over Severe lol
 
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