LickWx
Member
Is it really forecasting and serious discussion if what we mostly discuss and post is the snowiest models…..
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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
oh, if rgem had a big snowstorm and nam didn't you can bet the nam would be tossed but the rgem not.
LickWx
Member
I’ve found the best approach to get an idea of what’s going on is to visit multiple forums . Right now my go to are here , mid Atlantic americanwx and nyc American wx. Each paint a different picture . I do the same for long range pattern . Here and wxdisco ( old accu weather forum )oh, if rgem had a big snowstorm and nam didn't you can bet the nam would be tossed but the rgem not.
LovingGulfLows
Member
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That's literally the three forums I go on as well lol.
BelmontWX79
Member
Lol nobody wanted to post the RGEM in the main thread!
LickWx
Member
Doesn’t the euro essentially show a dusting ? CMC ? Haven’t heard anything about the UKie lately .
But it’s not 33 and 34 degrees the entire time. You keep saying this but we’re dealing with a column that’s crashing and already cold antecedent conditions.
It was 38 degrees when it started snowing on both 12/18 and 1/23/03. You are not dealing in reality.
Broken024
Member
I am canceling the rgem. Riding the nam until the wheels fall off.
LickWx
Member
@NickyBGuarantee you should contact NWS caribou maybe you could get an internship . Would be pretty sick . Also contact NWS Raleigh. They are right on centennial , I’ve been inside and hung out with em before . Cool stuff. Met @YetAnotherRDUGuy there.
LickWx
Member
Yeah , heavy wet snow . Column crashing is fun.
6Z GFS should have more buzz! It was a great run! Winter’s not over! Mega analfrontal incoming for our torchy February 
It’s getting testy in here this morning!
LickWx
Member
So if the nam is the short range gfs so to speak and rgem short range canadian, why dont we got a euro version? That would be cool.
smast16
Member
I never stated the entire event, but there will be a several hour window of snow (maybe more) @ or above 32 degrees. You will not get efficient accumulations.
This whole column crashing is 100% rate driven, so if the rates aren't as strong as depicted on the NAM, then you can be even warmer.
And since I was referring to Bern in my first post, here's the GFS sounding for Bern.
And here's Durham. GFS doesn't show below freezing till after precip is moving out.
You must not be on here much. Too busy doing “things” that you say you really need to do all the time
Both situations would verify as 32/SN for both locations. It’s not ideal, I’ll agree, but it’s also not going to snow for hours at 34 like the models show, either. Models often keep BL temps too high in such situations, when in reality 2m temps almost always drop to freezing.
You know me man...most of the time, I'm going to ride out with you and suit up with the cold first jersey. In this case, if we get light precip, honestly, who cares if it's rain or snow. It's going to come down in the middle of the night and probably won't amount to more than a dusting. But if we get rapid cyclogenesis off the coast, there will be plenty of precipitation and plenty of that will be snow. It won't be efficient at first, but it'll get there.