Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

[SnowNiner]

GFS showed this 5 days out for this past Sunday...that didn't work out so well.

View attachment 113064

Similar situation too, GFS was amped, Euro was flat and late, GFS kept correcting to flat and crap like the Euro. Not the same but I wouldn't be surprised if GFS continuously ticks less amped.

It's just the theme for the winter. Last year was cold rain wedges, this year is positively tilted whiffs.

 

[Hypsometric]

GFS showed this 5 days out for this past Sunday...that didn't work out so well.

View attachment 113064

Here was the GFS evolution for the potential big dog storm before the one you're showing.



Also, the EPS had a much stronger signal and it didn't work out also. But how quickly we forget and worry about what the ensembles are showing.

 

[superjames1992]

A lot of our S/Os are going to be disappointed come Valentine’s Day weekend given how many inches some of the models are showing now.

 

[superjames1992]

Y’all can share storm analogs all you want but I’m not a fan of my cold air feeding in from the westView attachment 113059

I don’t think a high pressure over the Ohio Valley has historically been a bad spot. We’ve had systems with no high pressure systems at all that have worked out, for that matter.

 

[Tarheel1]

A lot of our S/Os are going to be disappointed come Valentine’s Day weekend given how many inches some of the models are showing now.

Yeah, a lot of let downs over the years with overhyped inches, only to verify at 1/3 of promised totals! Perfect holiday for this!

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Since models are bad always, we must not look at anything they’re saying at all or any trends going forward our Valentine’s Day storm is now a NOWCAST!

 

[ATLwxfan]

Kiss of death. Thread opened. Rain.


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[NickyBGuarantee]

First call for Valentine’s Day:
GSP 1”
CLT 2-4”
RAH 1-2”
Subject to change as bufkit warrants!

Charlotte 2-4 but RAH 1-2?! So biased! I want a second opinion from a real meteorologist like bird!

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Kiss of death. Thread opened. Rain.


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Oh ---------- and Shane opened it .. great early onset ice

 

[Hypsometric]

Since models are bad always, we must not look at anything they’re saying at all or any trends going forward our Valentine’s Day storm is now a NOWCAST!

Yeah that's what we're saying. (Spoiler: it's not).

 

[ATLwxfan]

First call for Valentine’s Day:
GSP 1”
CLT 2-4”
RAH 1-2”
Subject to change as bufkit warrants!

Do I extrapolate 5” for ATL and BHM based on these numbers?


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[NoSnowATL]

Do I extrapolate 5” for ATL and BHM based on these numbers?


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Atlanta should get around 8-12in

 

[Tarheel1]

Do I extrapolate 5” for ATL and BHM based on these numbers?


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Yes

Oh ---------- and Shane opened it .. great early onset ice

its the stupid heart emojis that killed it! Can’t have worldwide domination with 7 year old emojis! ?

 

[superjames1992]

Yes

its the stupid heart emojis that killed it! Can’t have worldwide domination with 7 year old emojis! ?

Should’ve opened it with ? emojis.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Yeah that's what we're saying. (Spoiler: it's not).

There’s a reason I put it in the whammy my brother ?

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

Looking forward to this week! Gonna see wishcasting, bittercasting, all-in, cliffdiving, meltdowns. Same old characters getting banned from storm thread and complaining about in here. Love it. ?

 

[ForsythSnow]

Kiss of death. Thread opened. Rain.


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Energy will trend so far SW by the end of the week that there won't even be rain. Fail!

 

[superjames1992]

Rates will overcome. ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I don’t think a high pressure over the Ohio Valley has historically been a bad spot. We’ve had systems with no high pressure systems at all that have worked out, for that matter.

Yep. Mean high location on Miller A cyclones is back towards that area similar to the GFS, it’s actually pretty common to not have a High in the NE with Miller As.

 

[Metwannabe]

Upper trough has to phase in or it's likely going to be mostly rain.

Ok thanks