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Misc 2018 Banter & Venting Thread

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whatalife said:
I hope no one was getting their hopes up over yesterday’s 12z GEFS run. It was fun to look at the snow map and over the last three runs everything has moderated a little bit.


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I admit, my hopes were up. The GFS sure did trend away from deep cold. Hopefully it's just delayed for a little later in February.

gfs_T2ma_us_fh108_trend.gif
 
The shaft express runs straight through the Midlands of SC. Had our chance in January, now I fear we will have to wait til next Winter :(
 
packfan98 said:
Boy, these 12z runs stink so far.
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Something is wacky about the GFS today. First it skips hours 114 and 120 and finally fills it in. Now I show it skipping 186 and to prove I'm not crazy I attached a screenshot. Lol.

GFS issue.jpg

Edit: It finally showed 186 but I have never seen this before.
 
Starting to think we are wanting February to be great so bad that we are slipping to realize what may be reality. I want it also, especially since I haven't seen a winter storm since Feb 2014 in my yard, but maybe the reality is, is that February may not be very freezing or ferocious. Man I hope I'm wrong...
 
That sun sure is getting pretty intense. I can only imagine how strong it is in the deep south. Fact is that the deeper you get into Feb the harder it is to get cold air very far south. The sun angle definitely plays a huge role in moderating temps later into Feb. The sun angle will be equivalent to October in about a week.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
That sun sure is getting pretty intense. I can only imagine how strong it is in the deep south. Fact is that the deeper you get into Feb the harder it is to get cold air very far south. The sun angle definitely plays a huge role in moderating temps later into Feb. The sun angle will be equivalent to October in about a week.
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Lol. Question is will you state in October how much lower it will be?
 
If models have such a tough time predicting the MJO why would we believe it will just fade out all of a sudden? Either way I will be happy with this winter regardless.
 
How about everybody who wants to cancel winter or only sees a bad trend due to a few model runs don't even bother reading or posting any more, winter is over for you. Just look outside and enjoy the weather as it comes.
 
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SoutheastRidge said:
That sun sure is getting pretty intense. I can only imagine how strong it is in the deep south. Fact is that the deeper you get into Feb the harder it is to get cold air very far south. The sun angle definitely plays a huge role in moderating temps later into Feb. The sun angle will be equivalent to October in about a week.
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Not this again
 
Brent said:
Not this again
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giphy.gif
 
SoutheastRidge said:
That sun sure is getting pretty intense. I can only imagine how strong it is in the deep south. Fact is that the deeper you get into Feb the harder it is to get cold air very far south. The sun angle definitely plays a huge role in moderating temps later into Feb. The sun angle will be equivalent to October in about a week.
Click to expand...

giphy.gif
 
LetItSnow said:
How about everybody who wants to cancel winter or only sees a bad trend due tp a few model runs don't even bother reading or posting any more, winter is over for you. Just look outside and enjoy the weather as it comes.
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giphy.gif
 
SoutheastRidge said:
That sun sure is getting pretty intense. I can only imagine how strong it is in the deep south. Fact is that the deeper you get into Feb the harder it is to get cold air very far south. The sun angle definitely plays a huge role in moderating temps later into Feb. The sun angle will be equivalent to October in about a week.
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Yeah, I got a sunburn yesterday, it's the dog days out there!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
That sun sure is getting pretty intense. I can only imagine how strong it is in the deep south. Fact is that the deeper you get into Feb the harder it is to get cold air very far south. The sun angle definitely plays a huge role in moderating temps later into Feb. The sun angle will be equivalent to October in about a week.
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Yet we get way more snow in February than in October.
 
Argue for sun angle all you want, there's a Heat Budget entering October...Not so much in February. Apples an Oranges to an extent.
 
SASQUATCH said:
Argue for sun angle all you want, there's a Heat Budget entering October...Not so much in February. Apples an Oranges to an extent.
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It can still get very HOT in February. It was in the 80s 9 times in Dallas last February and 2 times it nearly hit 90.
 
I see in the main thread that the cliff diving has started up again. A week ago everyone was like oh joy oh joy it’s going to be a cold and snowy February. Then just 3 days ago some claimed winter cancel due to some not so great model runs. Then the next 2 days model runs are good and we are on our way to the most epic February ever. Now it’s back to winter cancel lol. The thing is is that even if February ends up above normal it doesn’t mean we won’t get snow or even a big snow. Hell we could also end up well below normal and not see any snow at all. This actually happens every year where people literally start canceling winter in late November when in reality everyone is in the game until the 3rd week of February and some of us till the 2nd week in March. I posted something a few weeks ago about how Nashville and areas around there got snow last March in one of the most horrible warmest winters in years. I personally didn’t get more then Fluries but Nashville managed 2.5 inches last winter. February is always full of surprises weather it be early season tornadoes or big late season snowstorms. No need to get down because the models aren’t showing us going into the freezer on today’s runs. Hopefully our friends that haven’t seen snow yet end up getting some as I’ll gladly sacrifice snow up here to share it with them. Of course I’ll love it if I get more but I’m not going to freak out or jump for joy with every changing run of the models.
 
olhausen said:
I see in the main thread that the cliff diving has started up again. A week ago everyone was like oh joy oh joy it’s going to be a cold and snowy February. Then just 3 days ago some claimed winter cancel due to some not so great model runs. Then the next 2 days model runs are good and we are on our way to the most epic February ever. Now it’s back to winter cancel lol. The thing is is that even if February ends up above normal it doesn’t mean we won’t get snow or even a big snow. Hell we could also end up well below normal and not see any snow at all. This actually happens every year where people literally start canceling winter in late November when in reality everyone is in the game until the 3rd week of February and some of us till the 2nd week in March. I posted something a few weeks ago about how Nashville and areas around there got snow last March in one of the most horrible warmest winters in years. I personally didn’t get more then Fluries but Nashville managed 2.5 inches last winter. February is always full of surprises weather it be early season tornadoes or big late season snowstorms. No need to get down because the models aren’t showing us going into the freezer on today’s runs. Hopefully our friends that haven’t seen snow yet end up getting some as I’ll gladly sacrifice snow up here to share it with them. Of course I’ll love it if I get more but I’m not going to freak out or jump for joy with every changing run of the models.
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You will probably see some snow in February. Everyone south of you is done, though. Here's to 2018/2019!!!!
 
i spent the day moving my winter apparel back into storage. Stick a fork in this one, folks. It's been a pretty decent winter
 
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SoutheastRidge said:
It can still get very HOT in February. It was in the 80s 9 times in Dallas last February and 2 times it nearly hit 90.
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its also hit 90 in every month of the year :p not really a surprise stat

February also has the record for several of the biggest snowstorms in Dallas history

besides last winter wasnt really a winter anyway

also hit 94 twice in November... what about sun angle then :p
 
Brent said:
its also hit 90 in every month of the year not really a surprise stat

February also has the record for several of the biggest snowstorms in Dallas history

besides last winter wasnt really a winter anyway

also hit 94 twice in November... what about sun angle then :p
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That probably won't happen this year, it may go above average but 80s aren't gonna happen unless something goes totally wrong.

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Brent said:
its also hit 90 in every month of the year :p not really a surprise stat

February also has the record for several of the biggest snowstorms in Dallas history

besides last winter wasnt really a winter anyway

also hit 94 twice in November... what about sun angle then :p
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Well obviously sun angle isnt everything but its one very important factor. February is basically the first spring month in the deep south where you can get a wide variety of weather from tornado outbreaks to big snows.
 
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