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Misc 2018 Banter & Venting Thread

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I will never buy into all the BS signals of a great SE winter again. The mjo, el nino, strat bull crap and all the other great stuff that's supposed to happen. If and that's a big if right now the pattern flips mid January then theres the delays and garbage talk that goes with it. Next thing you know its February and the days are longer blah blah blah
 
Oconeexman said:
I will never buy into all the BS signals of a great SE winter again. The mjo, el nino, strat bull crap and all the other great stuff that's supposed to happen. If and that's a big if right now the pattern flips mid January then theres the delays and garbage talk that goes with it. Next thing you know its February and the days are longer blah blah blah
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*cue someone saying how much snow everybody already got in early December*
 
At least, in all likely hood, it's not going to stay THIS bad all winter. We'll likely have an opportunity or two to cash in somewhere down the line
 
Look at goofus!
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Who likes El Ninos?! Constant chilly, warm, rain, chilly, warm, rain, chilly, warm, rain . . ., with mildew growing in the garage.
 
I really don't understand why so my forecasters use analogs outside of ten years old. It's fairly obvious we live in different times now. Here is your winter forecasts for the next decade: above average temperatures. This forecast will be right at least 90% of the time.
 
J.C. said:
I really don't understand why so my forecasters use analogs outside of ten years old. It's fairly obvious we live in different times now. Here is your winter forecasts for the next decade: above average temperatures. This forecast will be right at least 90% of the time.
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Simple answer. Its simple size. By using only 10 years it would mean that every forecast would bust even further. Yes we have warmed as a globe but that doesn't mean atmospheric principles have changed dramatically. Yes it gets annoying hearing the same year as an analog every 2 years but it's better than not having anything to compare to or only 1 year.
 
SD said:
Good god guys I've been as miserable as anyone but its not even half done

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As good as 2009-2010 winter was to some, despite the flizzard dusting on 01/07/10, the only good snow that winter came 2/10/10. Then came one of the most hated storms in my life that March, when despite <0C temps at 850mb it poured rain at 38 degrees all night thanks to a slightly warm boundary layer.
 
1300m said:
Some got another storm just a few weeks later. We got the shaft in a supreme way.

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Yeah, I was talking more about the Raleigh area. We are lucky to get one big storm a winter, but if we do get a big storm, it usually ends up being the only one we get all winter worth talking about.
 
I’m aware I’m a glutton for punishment but I’m waiting on the next two days of model runs like a kid on Christmas
 
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