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Wintry 12/4-6 Winter Weather Potential

KyloG said:
I love precip holes

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north carolina is outside of the best fronto/forcing, a form of this will verify. rubbing salt on the wound is that the warm nose is weak because of the weak nature of the parent system and better forcing could have made this a "rates will overcome" storm for the southern periphery. sorry yall. many more bites at the apple coming
 
NWS GSP Early Afternoon Update... no mention of increased icing risks into the foothills and western piedmont....

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Wintry precip expected across the NC mountains and even parts
of the NC Foothills tonight into Friday morning...with a mix of
snow and freezing rain expected in the mountains, and mainly snow
expected in the Foothills.

2) Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 7PM this evening
through Friday morning for portions of the NC mountains (no changes
from previous forecast).

3) Precip will change over to rain and will taper off by early
Friday afternoon, but cold and cloudy conditions will continue

A southern stream upper-level shortwave trough will become sheared
out as its energy merges with a northern stream trough currently
crossing the Great Lakes. This energy will strengthen an upper
jet streak over the Mid- Atlantic, which will support some upper
divergence atop the forecast area tonight into Friday. The southern
stream jet will continue to spread a lot of mid and upper moisture
across the region, maintaining a thick cirrus shield thru the rest
of the day. Even spotty light rain or sprinkles may reach the ground
in the far southern part of the forecast area, but no measurable
amounts expected thru sunset. Temps may struggle to get into the
50s across most of the area this aftn as a result of the clouds.

Tonight, the center of a 1030 mb sfc high pres will track into
Upstate NY and weaken as it reaches the New England coast by late
Friday. The high will be in a good position to produce a hybrid
cold air damming wedge into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, cyclogenesis
will occur along the central Gulf Coast and spread frontogenesis
and isentropic lift along a stalled frontal boundary across the
Southeast. The low will quickly track east along a baroclinic zone
to the Carolina Coast overnight. Forcing doesn`t look appreciably
strong, so QPF is expected to be light, but categorical PoPs look
on track for the overnight thru early Friday morning. Low- level
thicknesses are a little colder than the previous winter wx event,
allowing for more snow and sleet to start out this evening into
the overnight across the higher elevations. A warm nose will punch
in from the SW and change precip over to mostly rain and freezing
rain by daybreak Friday. No big changes were seen in the latest
guidance on temps or QPF, so the current Winter Weather Advisory
looks good. In addition to the mountains, up to half an inch of
snow may accumulate out across the foothills and NW Piedmont
north of I-40, but should change over to rain by mid-morning
Friday. Impacts from this don`t seem to warrant expanding the
advisory at this time. Temps will lock in the upper 20s to lower
30s in the high elevations and along the eastern NC Escarpment,
and mid to upper 30s elsewhere.

By midday Friday, the upper shortwave will exit to our east and take
the better isentropic lift with it. Sfc low pressure will begin to
deepen near the Outer Banks, but a residual CAD wedge will linger
thru the rest of the day. Precip chances taper off from NW to SE,
but low clouds and fog will persist, keeping temps in the upper
30s to mid 40s for most of the area. All but the highest ridges
of the northern mountains are expected to get above freezing by
the end of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Thu:

Model guidance has trended drier in the wake of the departing low
pressure system Friday night into Saturday. That said, another low
pressure center moves east along the stalled frontal boundary to our
south. This will bring a return of some moisture and weak forcing,
however; this will mainly be limited to NE GA and the Upstate with
some slight chances for NC. Even with the lingering cold air, this
will help limit the chance of any wintry precip to the highest
elevations of the NC mountains, with no significant additional
accums expected.

The stalled frontal boundary does move south Saturday night, but yet
another wave of low pressure spins up and moves east along the
front. A northern stream short wave also moves into the area
bringing an increase in moisture and forcing. The Canadian model has
trended significantly drier with this system, while the GFS and
ECMWF remain on the dry side. This is due to the surface low being
farther south and less interaction with the northern stream short
wave limiting moisture return into the area. Still, there is enough
moisture and forcing for chance PoP to return Sunday and Sunday
night. Temps look to be warm enough for just rain for all but the
higher elevations of the NC mountains where any wintry precip would
be snow. There could be a decent period of snowfall for the higher
elevations, but it`s too early for good confidence on any accums.
Precip chances taper off quickly Monday as the low and short wave
move east of the area.

Lows near normal Friday night rise a few degrees by Sunday night.
Highs 5 to 10 degrees below normal Saturday rise a few degrees on
Sunday, then fall back to around 10 degrees below normal Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Thu:

Quasi-zonal flow develops on Tuesday with southwest flow developing
late Wednesday ahead of a northern stream short wave diving toward
the area. The short wave crosses the area late Wednesday night or
Thursday. At the surface, high pressure settles over the area
Tuesday then moves east Wednesday. A cold front crosses the area
late Wednesday night or Thursday. Moisture and forcing do increase
with the front, but there is no significant Gulf or Atlantic inflow
ahead of the front. Also, the air mass moderates significantly Wed
into Thu as the high moves east well out of cold air damming range.
This will help keep precip as rain for all but the higher elevations
of the NC mountains where precip may begin as or mix with snow with
some additional northwest flow snowfall after frontal passage on
Thursday. Accumulations are possible but too early for any
specifics.

Lows around 10 degrees below normal Monday night rise to slightly
above normal by Wednesday night. Highs Tuesday around 10 degrees
below normal rise to around 5 degrees below normal for Wednesday and
Thursday.
 
Nomanslandva said:
Bring it east! HRRRs have been a little dry looking with all the pretty purples all the way up in WVA so hoping for something more on the southern side than what it has been showing.
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Yeah I have been seeing that, not cool
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Shucks, they said wouldn't start till after midnight. look at radar it'll be gone by midnight... wow
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I seen that! I wish precip could have held off a little longer. My forecast says precip likely till 11am. It will be gone by 3am. Good luck my friend. I hope you at least get a dusting.
 
SNOWMANN said:
I seen that! I wish precip could have held off a little longer. My forecast says precip likely till 11am. It will be gone by 3am. Good luck my friend. I hope you at least get a dusting.
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Thank you, but I really don't know if it'll get cold enough to snow before the moisture is gone.
 
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