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Severe 11/29 - 12/1 Possible severe weather

Myfrotho704_

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Kinda surprised no one is talking about this, well not really since it’s headed towards winter time, but this is definitely a setup that’s worth watching and has support, deep layer shear is going to be off the charts, not far from record territory, and most models show enough CAPE (especially in the western SE), one thing that may help the tornado threat stay lower is linear forcing, but with low level shear over 25kts, that’s something to watch, those looks at H5 would be scary if it was May 567D2C47-5FAC-4542-8871-DA9291756218.jpeg F09B3270-290B-4730-B500-FDA703147411.png 665BCC48-CD34-46D9-B114-83863D44D13E.jpeg 12B7C3FF-0BF8-4833-9FB7-12DEA36EC786.jpeg 2712601A-C7F0-4F77-A49B-296D6C0336D5.jpeg
 

Myfrotho704_

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While it’s not the SE (yet) and this outlook was done by broyles, it’s not often you see a 15% lemon in the plains at the end of November lol 99209AEC-39C1-4BA8-8389-D658016F4807.jpeg DE4EF030-1256-47E4-87E0-122D8C091CE0.jpeg
 

Arcc

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Kinda surprised no one is talking about this, well not really since it’s headed towards winter time, but this is definitely a setup that’s worth watching and has support, deep layer shear is going to be off the charts, not far from record territory, and most models show enough CAPE (especially in the western SE), one thing that may help the tornado threat stay lower is linear forcing, but with low level shear over 25kts, that’s something to watch, those looks at H5 would be scary if it was May View attachment 26457View attachment 26458View attachment 26459View attachment 26460View attachment 26461
Sure would, nasty look at H5.
 

Brick Tamland

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Well, November is the secondary severe season around here. And if we get any severe weather in November, it always seems to happen the week of Thanksgiving for some reason.
 
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Kinda surprised no one is talking about this, well not really since it’s headed towards winter time, but this is definitely a setup that’s worth watching and has support, deep layer shear is going to be off the charts, not far from record territory, and most models show enough CAPE (especially in the western SE), one thing that may help the tornado threat stay lower is linear forcing, but with low level shear over 25kts, that’s something to watch, those looks at H5 would be scary if it was May View attachment 26457View attachment 26458View attachment 26459View attachment 26460View attachment 26461
You beat me to the punch ... nice job... I was going start the topic last nites 0z got my attention for sure ... if we can get enough moisture return out ahead that trough. ... threat comes east Saturday ... imo
 

Rick

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No wonder the threat of severe here is really low seems storm systems just cant get going anymore here the weather pattern is boring hope this winter isnt a repeat of last one:(
 
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snowcool776

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For MS, You better watch out, because this may become severe.
NC doesnt look too bad, no Quality matches seen at this time.
 

Myfrotho704_

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Some nasty looks today, nice EML advection, lots of low level shear, definitely could see a few tornadoes today, forcing is a bit linear but still F9579344-1077-4ED1-A3F8-7E2D82468F1B.png
 
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snowcool776

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Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Birmingham AL 919 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019 ALC005-271545- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0061.000000T0000Z-191127T1545Z/ Barbour AL- 919 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN BARBOUR COUNTY... At 918 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Clio, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Clio, Louisville, Tyler Crossroads, Texasville, Blue Springs State Park and Millers Ford. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3167 8569 3176 8568 3176 8567 3178 8566 3180 8567 3183 8541 3174 8538 3171 8539 3171 8542 3165 8542 TIME...MOT...LOC 1518Z 269DEG 28KT 3173 8565 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...0.00IN $$ 89^GSatterwhite
 

Myfrotho704_

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soundings out of west Texas/Louisiana is interesting, EML, but winds aloft are mostly unidirectional/forcing is linear, but with curved hodos like that a few tornadoes is definitely possible, especially with low level shear that high EEDFBD1D-FFBA-41A4-A5CA-ECEE88FD6A45.png
 

Zander98al

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Itll be intresting to see what happens tommorow instability isnt a whole lot, but dewpoints are in the mid and upper 60s so any little change could mean more instability 😶. Either way itll be a windy day refcmp.us_se-2.png sim_ir.us_se.png sbcape.us_se-1.png
 

Myfrotho704_

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Itll be intresting to see what happens tommorow instability isnt a whole lot, but dewpoints are in the mid and upper 60s so any little change could mean more instability 😶. Either way itll be a windy day View attachment 26668View attachment 26669View attachment 26670
Not lots of surface based cape, 3CAPE/sfc-3km lapses look minimal, reduces the tornado threat a lot, maybe more of a threat down into Louisiana/southern Mississippi but most of those storms aren’t surface based which reduces the tornado threat significantly
 
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