• Hello guests. Please take a minute to sign up and join in the conversation. It's free, quick, and easy!

Severe 10/31-11-2 Severe Threat (1 Viewer)

Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
1,469
Likes
1,426
Location
Atlanta
#1
Models showing agreement on significant storms across the southeast during this time period.

Will be something to monitor!
 
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
3,505
Likes
2,542
Location
Wake Forest, NC
#6
Looks like we could see more of a threat here Friday. Of course, we have seen severe weather and tornado outbreaks here in November before. Seems the middle of November and the week of Thanksgiving have been ripe in the past for severe weather.
 
Joined
Jan 15, 2018
Messages
1
Likes
2
Location
Columbus, GA
#7
I was reading today’s discussion from BMX about tomorrow’s severe weather, and saw this about 11/6. Never good when they say “rather ominous” in a forecast discussion. Still 6 days out, but definitely something to keep an eye on.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Storm5

Staff member
Administrator
Supporter
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
9,812
Likes
14,476
Location
Birmingham Alabama
#8
I was reading today’s discussion from BMX about tomorrow’s severe weather, and saw this about 11/6. Never good when they say “rather ominous” in a forecast discussion. Still 6 days out, but definitely something to keep an eye on.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yeah that system looks better for severe vs tomorrow’s


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Joined
Aug 18, 2018
Messages
122
Likes
98
Location
Baton Rouge, LA
#10
Details from this afternoon's weather disco from my local LIX office:

This s/w is still expected to take on a neutral to negative tilt
overnight and the strong forcing will deepen the sfc low. The winds
in the mid and lower levels will respond significantly with h5 winds
out of the southwest around 50-60kts, h85 winds will be out of the
south around 40-50kts, and sfc winds may begin to back out of the
SSE due to the deepening sfc low. This will lead to a very favorable
shear environment with 0-1km SRH possibly around 250-350 m2/s2 and
0-3km SRH around 400 m2/s2 maybe even approaching 500. Deep layer
shear is impressive too with 0-6km bulk shear around 40-55kts.
Obviously fcst soundings show a very favorable hodograph for
tornadic development. Instability again is not overwhelming but is
sufficient with MLCAPE likely peaking over 1000 j/kg and 0-3km
CAPE of 60-140 j/kg, definitely good enough in the LL. Showalters
are still forecast to be around -2 to -4. With these features any
storms that develop ahead of the main line will be able to
maximize the shear and could provide the greatest tornado threat.
These could also produce a strong tornado or two. The tornado
threat won`t end with the approach of the squall-line which will
likely be more of a QLCS. The shear will still be very strong and
embedded tornadoes will be possible if not likely in the line.

As for timing, this is the one thing we aren`t extremely
confident about. If storms fire ahead of the line then locations
like BTR could see activity right around midnight while locations
along the north and south shores and coastal MS could see activity
at and well before sunrise. If we are waiting on the line then it
could be more of a 2/3am around the BTR area to 13-16z coastal
MS. One concern though with timing is if the squall-line really
consolidates and is intense then there is a good chance it could
rapidly accelerate east. If that occurs then the timing would move
up and the straight-line wind threat will really increase and
could be widespread. A possible good example is the squall-line we
saw on April 27th 2015.

As for the rain potential this is still impressive. This will still
be a fairly transitory system but these storms will be very
efficient rain producers. Still forecasting K index values of around
38 and PWs near 2" which is at the top of climo. This will combine
with a very diffluent pattern aloft and some of these storms will
drop a considerable amount of rain in a very short time which could
lead to localized flash flooding. There is a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall and widespread 2-3 inches with locally higher
amounts looks are possible.
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 1)

Top