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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Arcc said:
Yuck to the umpth degree.

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It’s funny you bring this up, and this all related to the initial trough near the GLs before the storm that’s been trending progressive/quicker to move out, but the 06z icon is finally going back our way and is deeper/slower with that feature. Hopefully a sign of things to come. At this point gotta hopeIMG_3122.gif
 
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LP looks a little too amped for what most would need for a decent snow. Arklatex gets the paste job this run before the LP angles ENE.

Storm signal is still there, thankfully- just another possibility
 
Major differences still existing on models. The icon has a nice extension off the SE can vortex around the lakes which would likely keep temp issues at bay for much of the SE, but still maintains a good look with our Baja low and digging energy about to drop into it, but the GFS scoots it off rather quick and doesn’t develop that extension, instead scoots the confluence off quick. We just cant get afford to get a fully phased bomb anymore with a GFS like solution, the icon gives room.

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Major differences still existing on models. The icon has a nice extension off the SE can vortex around the lakes which would likely keep temp issues at bay for much of the SE, but still maintains a good look with our Baja low and digging energy about to drop into it, but the GFS scoots it off rather quick and doesn’t develop that extension, instead scoots the confluence off quick. We just cant get afford to get a fully phased bomb anymore with a GFS like solution, the icon gives room.

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Many will disagree, but I rather get rid of the Baja low & make this Northern stream dominated. But it’s pretty obvious with overnight trends that it’s likely not gonna happen that way.

Seems like we need perfecting timing these days in the SE. (East of the Apps). Not entirely sure why Mother Nature is stuck on repeat with areas in the Southern plain, Western Deep South & Mid South getting hit. Some creativity would be awesome.
 
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The majority of the CMC members have a low in the Gulf, some track that low just a bit inland (warmer)and others track the LP off the SE coast (colder)we really need option 2, and I’m assuming that’s b/c of a better/stronger interaction with the northern stream trough?


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packfan98 said:
6z GEFS sucked as far as I can tell. I’m a little jealous of the jolt of energy from the 0z gfs run I slept through. Back to reality.
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Can’t really tell what the 06z euro was about to do. The airmass ahead of it sucked, but it was coming in quick with the new cold feed from a TPV in Canada. Looked more amped then last run. Storm and that feature. This TPV interaction has become a new feature/player in this setup recently, and more then just some northern stream IMG_3136.gifIMG_3139.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Can’t really tell what the 06z euro was about to do. The airmass ahead of it sucked, but it was coming in quick with the new cold feed from a TPV in Canada. Looked more amped then last run. Storm and that feature. This TPV interaction has become a new feature/player in this setup recently, and more then just some northern stream View attachment 159364View attachment 159365
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If we can get the northern wave out in front ala December 2017, obviously we are in much much better shape.
 
We're in the over-amped/warm stage of modeling now. No need to worry. They'll cool a down a little in a day or two and we will probably be sweating suppression again at some point.

The air mass out ahead of this storm looks very cold and dry, even if the TPV extension isn't perfect. I'd suspect worst case, CAD area's will be in for a solid front end hit as the midlevels saturate and cool. Those type of front end hits almost always overperform in my experience and that's exactly the type setup the 06z GFS is showing. Hi-res models would go to town with that front end stuff.

I like where the Upstate is sitting.
 
rburrel2 said:
We're in the over-amped/warm stage of modeling now. No need to worry. They'll cool a down a little in a day or two and we will probably be sweating suppression again at some point.

The air mass out ahead of this storm looks very cold and dry, even if the TPV extension isn't perfect. I'd suspect worst case, CAD area's will be in for a solid front end hit as the midlevels saturate and cool. Those type of front end hits almost always overperform in my experience and that's exactly the type setup the 06z GFS is showing. Hi-res models would go to town with that front end stuff.

I like where the Upstate is sitting.
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And banding means a lot to the front end thump.
 
rburrel2 said:
This is not a lack luster airmass.

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The initial air mass is cold but as storm approaches it warms very quickly...as precip is on the door step it's already very borderline. Lows are only 30F in DC at 1am on Saturday with no high pressure to our north. This isn't going to trend colder, we just need a really good track.




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KyloG said:
The initial air mass is cold but as storm approaches it warms very quickly...as precip is on the door step it's already very borderline. Lows are only 30F in DC at 1am on Saturday with no high pressure to our north. This isn't going to trend colder, we just need a really good track.




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I mean yea, the track on the 06z GFS is too far north and inland. Let's hope that's the the backstop for how far north it can go. But even with that north track we're getting hit with a front end thump thanks to the cold/dry air in place. Without that we would be going from rain to more rain as depicted.
 
rburrel2 said:
I mean yea, the track on the 06z GFS is too far north and inland. Let's hope that's the the backstop for how far north it can go. But even with that north track we're getting hit with a front end thump thanks to the cold/dry air in place. Without that we would be going from rain to more rain as depicted.
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Yeah, I'm not saying it can't but we don't have any wiggle room, we need a near perfect track. It can happen...and to be honest we are kind of due for some good luck. But I just posted this in the Jan thread...this period had looked really good a few days but evolved like this. Can't help but laugh at our luck.

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06z Euro AI has more trough/cut off interaction. It's going to be a little warmer initially. Oddly its showing a rain to snow scenario instead of a snow to rain situation(GFS depiction).

Verbatim, it obliterates me with snow I think(may have boundary layer issues). I would have rather kept it further south for now. At least the surface low track is better than the GFS.


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rburrel2 said:
06z Euro has more trough/cut off interaction. It's going to be a little warmer initially. Oddly its showing a rain to snow scenario instead of a snow to rain situation(GFS depiction).

Verbatim, it obliterates me with snow I think(may have boundary layer issues). I would have rather kept it further south for now. At least the surface low track is better than the GFS.


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What model is this map from?
 
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