Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

[rburrel2]

god if we reel this storm in it will be like catching a 15 pound bass out of a farm pound a day after 10 inches of rain. This some hard work up in here

Here's the latest Graphcast (from 12z). It's pretty much like what I mentioned earlier - a sharper wave version of the 18z GFS - and it yields a bit more snow this run compared to its last run. The wave digging into the C Plains taps the baja wave, then moves east.

That looks a lot like how the 12k Ukmet was progressing, imo.

 

[rburrel2]

Notice the ukmet at hr 168, has that same hook like feature at the bottom of the trough just like the graphcast. Very similar interaction being depicted. Also the precip field is similar.

 

[griteater]

Here's the Graphcast sucking in some moisture out of the southern stream / baja low and into the storm. By the way, the Graphcast had a better storm in the SE at the end of its run

 

[jackendrickwx]

Here's the Graphcast sucking in some moisture out of the southern stream / baja low and into the storm. By the way, the Graphcast had a better storm in the SE at the end of its run

That looks pretty solid to me. Give the “best” of both worlds with less pumping up heights ahead and more moisture to use

 

[Arcc]

god if we reel this storm in it will be like catching a 15 pound bass out of a farm pound a day after 10 inches of rain. This some hard work up in here

Here's the latest Graphcast (from 12z). It's pretty much like what I mentioned earlier - a sharper wave version of the 18z GFS - and it yields a bit more snow this run compared to its last run. The wave digging into the C Plains taps the baja wave, then moves east.

Dang a few degrees from a pretty good smash along I20, BHM east.

 

[wow]

Would be good to see an OP run follow one of those ensemble members that shows a historic run. That'll reinvigorate the masses!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

icon might be good, maybe not ? Lol

 

[Forevertothee]

Euro AI is also painting a light event in a large area. 850mb looks good. Looks to be a solid 1-2 inch event so far.

 

[Rain Cold]

icon might be good, maybe not ? Lol View attachment 159239

Probably not lol

 

[iGRXY]

 

[iGRXY]

 

[JoshuaWx]

Euro Ai is just the GFS in disguise

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[iGRXY]

ICON is a board wide winter storm. Snow along and north of I20 and then into the upstate SC.

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[NCSNOW]

Far out she goes. Thats last frame. Id cash out now with this for mby.

 

[rburrel2]

The Icon is cooking with grease tonight! That's all frozen for almost everyone...

 

[Bready86]

Around 7 days out - I’d take that

 

[malak05]

Thats the best look the Icon gave so far another random solution on table... So many options and surprises good and bad we playing roulette guys

 

[bouncycorn]

A beaut!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This looks…. Good

 

[Snowlover34]

View attachment 159254View attachment 159255View attachment 159256This looks…. Good

@Myfrotho704_ can you post the totals a little to the west?

 

[DLI4SCwx]

Doesn't ICON have a known warm bias? So theoretically it could be a colder solution.

 

[EmilyWx]

Correct. Rarely in these situations where phasing is involved do we get any sort of clarity beyond 4 days out or so. The important thing to me is just not losing any of our main players. So far, we haven't.

You can't make the cake unless you have all the ingredients, so that's step one. Step two is putting them together.

Watching these models try to figure out whats going on at D7+ is like not knowing how to cook and trying to make a cake without a recipe. But I guess as long as we have all the ingredients, we might accidentally get it right.

Welcome aboard, btw!

Exactly! We have a long ways to go for this event and we probably won't have a good idea of things till early next week. Happy to be along for the ride! Thanks for having me!

 

[NCSNOW]

Thats a 4-8 incher across alot of NC, especially northern coastal plain. But it was just getting going good on that last frame.

Nice start to the evening. Guessing it was a partial phase at H5

 

[Stormlover]

ICON

 

[hky1894]

If gfs comes in with a good run I’m gonna be feeling good. The 18z euro was intriguing think we may be coming back to a more favorable solution quickly


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[Rain Cold]

Doesn't ICON have a known warm bias? So theoretically it could be a colder solution.

People say it does, but I don't know if there's empirical data that supports that.

 

[bouncycorn]

00z ICON looks pretty similar to Aurora (Microsoft's model)

 

[griteater]

The Icon dropped wave 1 from NStream down into the baja wave which kicked it out some, then it dropped wave 2 from NStream which phased with ~70% of the baja wave before moving east. wow. coming out of our darkest hour, we are now cooking

 

[CaryWx]

If gfs comes in with a good run I’m gonna be feeling good. The 18z euro was intriguing think we may be coming back to a more favorable solution quickly


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I would just like to see it come in with the ICON track, even if not as intense necessarily as there would be room to hone better in the coming runs as we get closer to the event.

 

[griteater]

The Icon dropped wave 1 from NStream down into the baja wave which kicked it out some, then it dropped wave 2 from NStream which phased with ~70% of the baja wave before moving east. wow. coming out of our darkest hour, we are now cooking

Big thing is that everything is on the move there - can't have any big delays, else the cold temperatures needed will / may be gone

 

[CaryWx]

The Icon dropped wave 1 from NStream down into the baja wave which kicked it out some, then it dropped wave 2 from NStream which phased with ~70% of the baja wave before moving east. wow. coming out of our darkest hour, we are now cooking

Hasn't the ICON been onboard with set up but just outside it's range until tonight

 

[Ross]

i think we can do better than the icon

 

[CaryWx]

i think we can do better than the icon

The aSpire model?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

@Myfrotho704_ can you post the totals a little to the west?

 

[Rain Cold]

i think we can do better than the icon

We will. And you will see it show up over the next couple of days.

 

[Tokenfreak]

i think we can do better than the icon

Yeah the icon wasn’t that great for most of SC, southern GA and some costal areas