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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

It is tough to know what to root for now. Many people will have different opinions on this I am sure. It seems to me though if we are still going to pull for the baja low energy, we need it to speed up & eject quicker... Not just eject later. If it's going to eject later (like the 12z Euro), I imagine we need to go all in on the Northern stream dig.
 
In my opinion today didn't really answer any questions and brought more uncertainty. It's worth noting that we should get better sampling of our potential UL energy within the next few days or so once it reaches land. 18z ECMWF follow suit in swinging our ULL east. We will have to monitor to see if future runs follow this solution.
 
EmilyWx said:
In my opinion today didn't really answer any questions and brought more uncertainty. It's worth noting that we should get better sampling of our potential UL energy within the next few days or so once it reaches land. 18z ECMWF follow suit in swinging our ULL east. We will have to monitor to see if future runs follow this solution.
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Correct. Rarely in these situations where phasing is involved do we get any sort of clarity beyond 4 days out or so. The important thing to me is just not losing any of our main players. So far, we haven't.

You can't make the cake unless you have all the ingredients, so that's step one. Step two is putting them together.

Watching these models try to figure out whats going on at D7+ is like not knowing how to cook and trying to make a cake without a recipe. But I guess as long as we have all the ingredients, we might accidentally get it right.

Welcome aboard, btw!
 
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End of the 18z eps looks to bring the energy out.
 
Like the look on the end of the 18z ECMWF.. We're at 180hrs or so.. I don't think the very high end scenarios are completely off the table. A scenario is still in the cards where the Baja SW kicks out and phases and bombs out in the gulf, leading to a classic Miller A like we were seeing in models several runs ago. I'd say the 18z ECMWF took a decent step in that direction. It isn't the most likely scenario, it also isn't the only snowy scenario, but it can't be ruled out.
 
A lot of different options here that will affect people differently. If we stick to leaving the S/W in the southwest we have got to hope and pray the N/S energy drops down fast and further west, scoop of a piece of the Baja low in a partial phase and try and pop a nice coastal. If we get the 18Z GFS the 85 and I20 crew east of the apps are going to get absolutely robbed. And even those further west probably are looking at a 1-4” max. The I95 guys would also get into the mix like those out west. People will be happy but it really puts a damper on things if all we can do is get a partial 1-4” snow for part of the board in what is easily the best pattern we’ve had in 3 years.

The other option is the S/W ejects in time and we try and hold confluence to keep heights out east down and get a mauler or even get a a full phase with the northern stream dropping down to inject fresh cold air into the system. That would require a lot of timing and a lot can go wrong in that scenario also. A true boom or bust kind of thing. If you miss the phase it’s going to get shredded from the N/S or if the N/S doesn’t drop you’re going to get amplification out ahead.

Again, I’d rather just try and trend to a nice overrunning setup and get an over performing FGEN front end thump minimum and see where the warm nose ends up setting up at this point. That seems like the easiest option to get multiple portions of the board involved and while it may damper an all snow event you can get some big totals still.
 
bouncycorn said:
Like the look on the end of the 18z ECMWF.. We're at 180hrs or so.. I don't think the very high end scenarios are completely off the table. A scenario is still in the cards where the Baja SW kicks out and phases and bombs out in the gulf, leading to a classic Miller A like we were seeing in models several runs ago. I'd say the 18z ECMWF took a decent step in that direction. It isn't the most likely scenario, it also isn't the only snowy scenario, but it can't be ruled out.
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I think we can narrow the snowfall depth range down to 0-30"
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
18z euro View attachment 159166View attachment 159167View attachment 159168
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Just my two cents, but I think it could be better because it's dropping the first northern piece down far enough behind the first lobe that it may sort of allow some of that part to escape and get pulled in to the next northern stream wave coming down and heading our way. While the middle vort gets left behind and shunted towards the pacific.

We saw some of these scenarios a day or two ago and they lead to a decent overrunning type event, maybe?
 
I don't post here much, but I love to follow this thread and others. I appreciate many of yall's dedication and vigor towards the evolving trends and weather. I like the end of the look on the RGEM at 84 hr with a less detached Baja low in sync with the broader flow. I'm too young to remember, but a weather mentor friend of mine a lot older than me told me a story about Matthew Holiday/Firsthand weather making a wild prediction about a subtle ULL over the four corners that ended up phasing with the main jet and brought snow to AL and other parts of the south. How the story was told to me was Matthew made the bold forecast and then was blasted by James Spann online only for Spann to be humbled because the storm evolved exactly as Matthew said it would. Based on how it was described to me, I'm wondering if this situation is similar or if anyone remembers what I'm talking about, as I was too young at the time. It may have been around 2014. I have attached a comparison between the RGEM and GFS at 84 HR for reference. Note how different the energies look. One of these models if going to have to make a big adjustment in the coming days.
 

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rburrel2 said:
We're back! well sort of... The 18z Euro AI leaves behind our cut off, but does a much better job digging the northern stream and generates a light event for all of us. We can take baby steps and improve on this!
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I'm fine with this...really we don't want to see a trend to a big dog until mid next week. I guess I am old school but I would rather expect a middling event and have it trend to something better at the last moment than watch run after run smoking us with a big dog only to see it trend away the last 48 hrs. Overall the pattern is one that pays off so we just have to hope it comes through.
 
I invite everyone to read the model discussions from Gary Gray leading up to the '96 blizzard starting just 4 days prior. The MRF and AVN are what became thr GFS and the ETA became the NAM for all you youngins.

The Gary Gray Files - Jan '96

I had these archived and published on a site but no longer hosting it. Figured I would post them all here. These are the usenet posts from Gary Gray leading up to the Blizzard of '96. Keep history alive. Jan 3 1996: Subject: The Mid-Atlantic's Turn??... <1/3> From: [email protected] (A.K....
www.americanwx.com www.americanwx.com
 
Mitch West said:
It is tough to know what to root for now. Many people will have different opinions on this I am sure. It seems to me though if we are still going to pull for the baja low energy, we need it to speed up & eject quicker... Not just eject later. If it's going to eject later (like the 12z Euro), I imagine we need to go all in on the Northern stream dig.
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I am rooting for everyone to have a good time :)

I am also rooting for the low to get shoved to the Galapagos at this point
 
wow said:
I invite everyone to read the model discussions from Gary Gray leading up to the '96 blizzard starting just 4 days prior. The MRF and AVN are what became thr GFS and the ETA became the NAM for all you youngins.

The Gary Gray Files - Jan '96

I had these archived and published on a site but no longer hosting it. Figured I would post them all here. These are the usenet posts from Gary Gray leading up to the Blizzard of '96. Keep history alive. Jan 3 1996: Subject: The Mid-Atlantic's Turn??... <1/3> From: [email protected] (A.K....
www.americanwx.com www.americanwx.com
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Trying to visit that site on a mobile device is hell with all the pop up ads. Will need to visit from my desktop.
 
The 18z AIFS reminds me a bit of the first mid-January 2022 storm (the bowling ball ULL one, not the coastal).

The waves follow similar paths and have fairly strong SE Canada lows. Although, I remember the January 2022 storm trending to more mixing because the bowling ball wave separated from the cold source too much. Fortunately, we have a bit more cold air in place with this setup.

With this potential, we have less amplification but a greater cold source. My personal rule is that if precipitation is non-zero, it will usually trend upward by the time the CAMS show up. See January 2018, and December 2017.

If we say goodbye to the Baja low interaction, I foresee the wave trending sharper as we get closer.
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I think the 18z EC AI represents an almost best-case scenario, but one I think stands a realistic chance, also. It phases with vorticity streaming out ahead of the baja low, and explodes just offshore. Had the northern stream dug harder and phased sooner, that would have been a big dog closer to the coast.
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All the flipping and flipping is insane. Wait till Sunday afternoon and there will start to be consensus. We will also know whether models ice or under perform. I’m just trying to be real patient and glad we got a look that could be fruitful


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CLOTT01 said:
All the flipping and flipping is insane. Wait till Sunday afternoon and there will start to be consensus. We will also know whether models ice or under perform. I’m just trying to be real patient and glad we got a look that could be fruitful. As someone said earlier. Really complex forecast


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1300m said:
I think the 18z EC AI represents an almost best-case scenario, but one I think stands a realistic chance, also. It phases with vorticity streaming out ahead of the baja low, and explodes just offshore. Had the northern stream dug harder and phased sooner, that would have been a big dog closer to the coast.
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Imagine we do manage to bomb out the northern stream over us/just past us and set up confluence/a cold feed for the actual ejecting Baja low later on…. Hehe
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
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god if we reel this storm in it will be like catching a 15 pound bass out of a farm pound a day after 10 inches of rain. This some hard work up in here

Here's the latest Graphcast (from 12z). It's pretty much like what I mentioned earlier - a sharper wave version of the 18z GFS - and it yields a bit more snow this run compared to its last run. The wave digging into the C Plains taps the baja wave, then moves east.


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