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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

SD said:
This is the way
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The ol “sacrifice” the Baja wave for the greater good move. arcc referenced it too. This run is probably about the best we can do for both cold and storm. Folks to the north and northwest likely have some higher aspirations though - which is understandable
 
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Mitch West said:
Yeh SD said it earlier. Bump the Baja wave. Let’s rage with the drop down the middle & connect the rage
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Yep unless it trends considerably faster or weaker it has to come out of the equation to a large degree. It can hand off some energy or do a partial phase but absorbing/ getting phased into by the trailer is immediately going to pump the SER and warm the pattern regardless of the north Atlantic
 
griteater said:
The ol “sacrifice” the Baja wave for the greater good move. arcc referenced it too. This run is probably about the best we can do for both cold and storm. Folks to the north and northwest likely have some higher aspirations though - which is understandable
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This may be what we get, but it ain't what would happen if I had my rathers. If all we end up with is a 2-4" event I'd rather get nothing.
 
I just have a hard time buying that warm solution. With the amount of cold and dry air and I think a heavier snow pack than initially modeled. I just don’t think it’s mid 50s rain.


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Forevertothee said:
Some of us have not had a flake since January 2022. Others, longer. I would take 2-4 inches and be as happy as a Gamecock win over Clemson.
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I haven't either. But in order for this to work, we're going to need a northern stream injection stronger
and further south than modeled and it may as well catch at least a portion of the Baja wave while it's at it. We've pretty much already screwed this whole pattern up anyway with the western ridge folding over, so odds are it's not going to work out for most of us anyway.
 
SD said:
Yep unless it trends considerably faster or weaker it has to come out of the equation to a large degree. It can hand off some energy or do a partial phase but absorbing/ getting phased into by the trailer is immediately going to pump the SER and warm the pattern regardless of the north Atlantic
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Do you think more digging or energy on the back side could tilt this a little negative, making it a bigger storm?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Look how dry on the immediate Lee side of the apps. Pass
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Considering how we have not had the same look often, I am sure we will get different looks in future runs. It's definitely true that you don't want to be in the bullseye until under 72 hours. In this time frame, just be hopeful the signal for a storm is there with favorable temps and boundary layers. Would be nice to have the Euro came in better. Not going to lie, frustration is building if we waste a prolonged period of cold and miss out after the last two years.
 
CLOTT01 said:
I just have a hard time buying that warm solution. With the amount of cold and dry air and I think a heavier snow pack than initially modeled. I just don’t think it’s mid 50s rain.


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Rule #1 of Raleigh snowstorms, there is never enough cold air. Temps are always an issue.
 
packfan98 said:
We always get a few decent looks with Miller A healthy lows in the gulf, but then the upper energy doesn’t corporate and goes to sh@t. I’m really starting to have my doubts that we can get something of significance for a large portion of the board. I hope I’m wrong.
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Just take the same GFS progression and sharpen the wave some and you have a moderate event. Will need to get Baja involved for something bigger (but more challenging to get it to work)
 
I got it everyone, we use reverse phycology on the models! All last week we had a snow storm and come time for the storm we're getting rain. Now that the model have taken our storm for next week, that must mean we'll have a snow storm. See, the models think its a game to us!
 
wow said:
I think I like the 18z euro but I could be wrong lol
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I honestly do not think the pig is just going to sit and rot in the SW. I think it will come east. What is hard to know is whether it will come out too late or not.

Gun to head, I think it moves east in time for a partial phase.
 
Rain Cold said:
I honestly do not think the pig is just going to sit and rot in the SW. I think it will come east. What is hard to know is whether it will come out too late or not.

Gun to head, I think it moves east in time for a partial phase.
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Euro just made a big shift in that direction was not expecting that at all.


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