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Wintry 1/25 Winter Weather Potential

ForsythSnow

ForsythSnow

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12Z NAM was a good hit for many in AL and GA, let's bring an event for us home
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Parker said:
Hope the NAM is onto something but there is absolutely not a single ensemble member from the EPS or GEFS with any snowfall, I don’t like that.

Such a beautiful track though
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Given the track and upper air, this system really has a chance. In the end, though, it has heartbreak written all over it. As modeled, above freezing surface temps with rate dependant snowfall happening during the middle of the day will any real make accumulations extremely difficult.

But we weenies will do what weenies do.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Wow I hadn’t been following this. Let’s reel it in
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Not sure how far it is from what happened in Feb 2020 but I have a similar feel to it. Small event that showed up and was really mostly ignored to be maybe a dusting event at best until the modeling got closer and it turned into a nice event for many across N GA.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not sure how far it is from what happened in Feb 2020 but I have a similar feel to it. Small event that showed up and was really mostly ignored to be maybe a dusting event at best until the modeling got closer and it turned into a nice event for many across N GA.
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I think this is the event you were referring to.

Brief dusting to RN/SN mix down this way. 4 to 6 for my in-laws near Cumming

February 8, 2020 Snow in North Georgia

www.weather.gov

I recall it being picked up by short-range models but essentially ignored by globals until they were useless
 
Cold Miser said:
I think we should wait until the NAM gets into better range to start the thread tbh
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Thread stays as there's still discussion regarding the system as well as a potential. It's also 3 days away so if it's showing up on modeling then it's valid enough for its own thread. With all the flipping globals have been on recently they're not too smart on tracks and moisture output so I would pay more attention to H5. Our wave is sitting over the SW rn as that Baja low. Its interaction with the jet will be what makes or breaks it. The NAM keeps it a lot stronger while the GFS weakens it too much but its still there.
 
Zander98al said:
Wow when did this happen? looks like central and north Alabama won't be getting out of the lower to mid 30s Tuesday. Very intrigued. Is this system even sampled yet?
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It comes down to interactions with the jet. It's over Baja right now as the cutoff and is supposed to merge Monday or so before making its way east.
 
Everything looks about 4 hours slower this run which isn't a bad thing. The Low on frame 60 looks about 50 miles SW of 12z but progression is still moving NE should still be okay?
 
Wonder if a winter weather advisory would be issued with conditions being really close in central Alabama and north Alabama. Also interesting wording by nws bham, for there long-term update. Monday through Friday.

Models continue trend farther southward with next weather system
impacting area Monday night and Tuesday. Looks like most of the
rain will be south of I-20, with amounts less than one-quarter of
an inch. Reduced rain chances during this period. Big spread in
model output with the system expected to impact the Southeast
States late in the week. Models agree in a highly amplified trof
developing east of the MS river by Friday, but position of trof
axis will make a difference in the precipitation coverage/type
over Central Alabama. Added small rain chances to the northeast
counties on Friday, but changes likely needed as the week
progresses.
 
weatherfide said:
At 69 hours this is all rain for Atlanta. I think this is only going to be rain here. Mountains may still have a chance at frozen.
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Definitely looks like snow levels will be around >2500' right now, but still a few days away.
 
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