Just wanted to pull this out of the other thread so we aren't all talking over each other
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Wintry 1/17/24 coastal?
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yay our very own little thread, hopefully it's not like this in here tomorrow
I think the cold will catch the moisture for someone towards ENC. This isn’t the worst thread that was ever started.
Good chance but I figured someone in the other thread might get in their feels if we didn't.
I know it's hard for some to believe but sometimes threads are simply traffic management tools
BHAMWX
Member
I can only watch and learn. Hopefully some of the more educated members will jump on here.
Yeah this ain't it but might eek out a few flurries
Let's just drop the whole friggin tpv in the trough and see what happens. That's not too much to ask is it?
If the WAR would just flex a little, it would probably be enough to sharpen that trough and tilt it negative at just the right time. I believe that was one of the things that happened with the 1/21-22/2022 storm that caused it to turn so much in the last 36 hours. I mean people that don’t follow this stuff would never have any idea how close this is to being a really good storm
SimeonNC
Member
Figured this is relevant for this thread too 3k NAM has much more precip.
Yeah really only model now. You can see it digs a tad more, with a little more tilt, can see vorticity bubbling up off the coast as well as pulling a little more moisture westward
Figured this is relevant for this thread too 3k NAM has much more precip.
but man temps are problematic and unless it really cranks up to pull cold in with it, I feel this one is dead. Hope I'm wrong
packfan98
Moderator
Yes, I’m afraid we are chasing light rain showers. Doesn’t look light enough development at our latitude.
Yeah it’s hard to imagine that we’ll see that much of a change with the trough in the next 48 hours… it’s close just not enough. As for the temperatures, I’m fairly certain that if the trough were to tilt negative at the right time, then that would take care of cooling the column. Still won’t be shocked to see a few flurries come through as the energy swings through here Tuesday night and Wednesday
This one stings but mostly because the overrunning event is just to our NW/W and then this coastal is so close but nada... so close!! Lol hopefully something will pop down the road for us
Downeastnc
Member
Naw this is the part were we talk about how the models always lose the coastal part in the 3 day range and will trend back to it inside of 36 hrs.....
Problem is, the models never had the coastal, not anything affecting land in the SE in any appreciable way. All we had was a bunch of if/then analysis, which is fine...that's what we're supposed to do.
But this wasn't a case where the models put a big coastal storm together on and off and then lost it for a few runs. There were a few hints of some minor influx of moisture here and there, but that was about it.
Our tools today are generally good enough that if nothing is showing anything, like ever, then there's probably not going to be anything.
Downeastnc
Member
Need to change your name to Wet Blanket.......?
Why?
Downeastnc
Member
Cause realistic views of the data have no place in this thread....we need more what ifs and wishcasting.
In all seriousness though you post was spot on......
“Our tools today are generally good enough that if nothing is showing anything, like ever, then there's probably not going to be anything.”
100% and a great lesson for us to remember