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Pattern Ninovember

The latest GFS finally gets some rain in here on two seperate occasions first week of November. To the tune of 3-4 inches statewide.

However the 0z Euro Op still has us in a the Nada Doghnut hole out through Nov 7th. Ugh!!!!

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I was surprised to see this today, felt like we were heading in a positive direction with the 12z runs yesterday toward getting more substantial rain chances. It seems like it's only a matter of time with the pac jet getting more consolidated and extended as we get toward Halloween.
 
The CFS 10 day for Nov for the E US has warmed 2-3F since 20 days ago:

Latest:
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20 days ago:
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No surprise here. I'll believe we're below normal when I see it

Just like the Thanksgiving "snow" I saw last night. Everyone always jinxes it here anyway(hence my sarcasm about it being 80 instead)

It's gonna be a long winter like I said before
 
No surprise here. I'll believe we're below normal when I see it

Just like the Thanksgiving "snow" I saw last night

It's gonna be a long winter like I said before

Agreed, no surprise at all. Early winter should be mild as all indications have been suggesting, including super Nino/+QBO analogs, despite the weaker than avg SPV in the 1st 1/2 of Nov. Our greatest hope remains Feb.
 
The annual snowfall means in the SE are about the same in Feb as Dec. In fact, snow means after Jan tend to be more than before Jan. (little bit of March skew there compared to Nov)

Obviously we want January if we get to pick and choose, but we don’t get to.

I think some are overweighting how “bad” Feb traditionally is, but that’s just my opinion. The optimum winter window in this region has always been late Dec to mid Feb.
 
I believe February 2014 was the last time Atlanta had any meaningful winter precip in February. 12 years and counting.
 
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