• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern August is the worst month of the year and it's not even close thread

4d2507e854055750e338cde7ebaede85.jpg

So much for the storms falling apart before crossing NC/VA
 
Last edited:
BufordWX said:
Light show dropping south from Tennessee. I wonder how far south this will hold together?View attachment 197310
Click to expand...
After all of the over performing events we have seen in the recent days, I wouldn’t be surprised if this made it all the way to Atlanta and even south of there some distance before it looses steam.
 
SD said:
Lol nino aam. Will be interesting to see if this moves poleward and we get a blocky sept/oct
Click to expand...

1786517868673.png ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-mslp_anom_7day-1786406400-1788307200-1790380800-10-1.gif

Honestly I would not be shocked to see at least a somewhat present STJ kicking into September, as we currently have a good thermal gradient in the Pacific that should remain if typhoons/storms can track over the current cool blobs ESE of Japan.
 
@SD new articles on Dolly and Edouard? Storms will be initiating advisories at 11am today!
 
And I'm right (the voice of doom)
Special Message from NHC​
Wed, 12 Aug 2026 14:20:27 +0000 ​
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Cristobal (formerly AL93) located well west-southwest of the Azores, at 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

Special Message from NHC​
Wed, 12 Aug 2026 14:21:18 +0000​
The National Hurricane Center will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C (formerly CP93), located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands at 5:00 AM HST (1500 UTC).
 
SD said:
Both if you have them
Click to expand...

I apologize if this is an absolute wall of GIFs lol; unsurprisingly, there isn't a great correlation here, especially with ensemble noise. There is definitely development of a troughing/LP system off of Alaska at the end of the run though—last run did this as well, but weaker. By that point, we've really cooled in the troposphere for changes to probably kick in faster; lower MSLP as well is shown off into the Central and Eastern Pacific, as the Seasonal suggested.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-npac_wide-z500_anom-1786492800-1787162400-1787788800-10.gifecmwf-weeklies-avg-npac_wide-z500_anom-1786492800-1787788800-1790467200-10.gif
1786547539812.png
 
Last edited:
annunciated said:
I apologize if this is an absolute wall of GIFs lol; unsurprisingly, there isn't a great correlation here, especially with ensemble noise. There is definitely development of a troughing/LP system off of Alaska at the end of the run though—last run did this as well, but weaker. By that point, we've really cooled in the troposphere for changes to probably kick in faster; lower MSLP as well is shown off into the Central and Eastern Pacific, as the Seasonal suggested.
View attachment 197326View attachment 197327
View attachment 197329
Click to expand...
That might be the epitome of meh but the weak split flow signal out west is interesting
 
Ain't looking great for storms making int into NC today outside of the mountains.
 
There is no way it gets as hot as forecast in the coming days with this much soil moisture, if it does we would basically live on the coast of Iran.
 
J.C. said:
There is no way it gets as hot as forecast in the coming days with this much soil moisture, if it does we would basically live on the coast of Iran.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately it likely will. Even if we in GA do not verify >=100F, it'll still be hell as is the usual for mid-August's "last stand" of summer.

The good news, this should be our last major summer heatwave.

1786560958449.pngecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg-namer-z500-1786536000-1786816800-1787832000-10-4.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top