RDU has backed off the extreme high temperatures from the point & click forecast released earlier today. Now, Thursday is showing a high of 100 degrees and Friday is showing a high of 102.
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Pattern July Fry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Maybe someone came in on the afternoon shift and freaked out. “WHY are we forecasting to tie the all-time record??? Get more consensus. Back that off a bit”..
Yes! That’s exactly the way I describe them to people, HGT of baseball!! Saw them last year in KC at the Royals field! Loved it!
This game is at Iowa Hawkeyes football stadium! It’s very entertaining, and I love that they keep the ticket cost so low! 40$
Raleigh had rdu 5 day at 100 for tommorow. So maybe next week we can rinse it out come go time
Here it is. I posted tuesday in the NC thread
Here it is. I posted tuesday in the NC thread
The record high H5 ht at 12Z over GSO is 599.0 dm (8/14/03 and 7/7/86):
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The record high H5 ht at 0Z, which is typically slightly higher than 12Z, over GSO is 600.9 dm (7/7/86):
@JHS
8/14/2003: 599 dm but actually had NN temps
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The record high H5 ht at 0Z, which is typically slightly higher than 12Z, over GSO is 600.9 dm (7/7/86):
@JHS
8/14/2003: 599 dm but actually had NN temps
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lexxnchloe
Member
I admit that with all of the superlatives being thrown out at the general public concerning weather (HEAT DOME HIGH! SUPER EL NINO! ARCTIC MELTDOWN! among others) it is easy to lose track with the actual and expected outcome of atmospheric conditions around the world. Especially in the USA, where some broadcast and social media outlets are losing it. Like the recent Japanese and Venezuelan earthquakes being CAUSED BY GLOBAL WARMING. Even if that is definitely not true, you know it will jazz numbers on some enthusiast or ratings-starved station or network. Trouble is we will have a tough period of conditions coming up where we must toss aside the hype and pay attention to timelines and intensity of weather systems.
An example of this is the infamous cries of "summer cancel" at the start of the month blamed on your El Nino. Which has now escalated to moderate but will never be a true "super" since some northern Pacific waters are cool and the equatorial Atlantic Basin/MDR is almost entirely below seasonal averages. A truly exceptional +ENSO signature, similar to the late summer of 2015, was essentially wall-to-wall warm. We are likely going to touch on or exceed the "strong" benchmark average at sector 3.4, but many of the prediction schemes suggest a collapse of the warming around New Year's Day 2027. The point of all this is simple: we need to monitor the 500MB ridge/trough scenario (+PNA/-AO expected) and excessive heat displays. Climatology for stronger 0 deg Pacific Basin warm waters is usually skewed hot from California to Texas, occasionally reaching the Pacific Northwest. The chief analogs for RONI are 1976, 2023 and 2025, so the worst of the summer heat should be along and west of the Mississippi River.
It looks like the current build-up of very hot weather (597dcm or higher ridge core at 500MB by next weekend), will start to retrogress in the second week of July. An East Coast weakness and occasional shortwave injection shows up on many of the ensemble platforms, which would leave the hottest values over the West and Central parts of Canada and the lower 48 states. There may be a "bleed-through" injection of hot air into the Mid-Atlantic and New England in the fourth week of July, with thunderstorms an ongoing threat with cold fronts from the Great Lakes into the Carolinas. But I see the JAS time frame as being a risk to power overuse in CAISO, SPP, ERCOT and some MISO districts, not so much the NYMEX, PJM and SEISO domains. Monsoonal moisture in Mexico may occasionally get into the Desert and Intermountain Regions, but will likely not have high impacts with the subtropical high (Sonoran) in the way.
Southern branch moisture and storms will be a factor with cooling through the southern third of the nation starting at the end of September. I suspect that the first half of winter will be that oft-abused "typical El Nino" mild/dry North/Central vs. cool/wet South alignment. But give it time, that could change.
An example of this is the infamous cries of "summer cancel" at the start of the month blamed on your El Nino. Which has now escalated to moderate but will never be a true "super" since some northern Pacific waters are cool and the equatorial Atlantic Basin/MDR is almost entirely below seasonal averages. A truly exceptional +ENSO signature, similar to the late summer of 2015, was essentially wall-to-wall warm. We are likely going to touch on or exceed the "strong" benchmark average at sector 3.4, but many of the prediction schemes suggest a collapse of the warming around New Year's Day 2027. The point of all this is simple: we need to monitor the 500MB ridge/trough scenario (+PNA/-AO expected) and excessive heat displays. Climatology for stronger 0 deg Pacific Basin warm waters is usually skewed hot from California to Texas, occasionally reaching the Pacific Northwest. The chief analogs for RONI are 1976, 2023 and 2025, so the worst of the summer heat should be along and west of the Mississippi River.
It looks like the current build-up of very hot weather (597dcm or higher ridge core at 500MB by next weekend), will start to retrogress in the second week of July. An East Coast weakness and occasional shortwave injection shows up on many of the ensemble platforms, which would leave the hottest values over the West and Central parts of Canada and the lower 48 states. There may be a "bleed-through" injection of hot air into the Mid-Atlantic and New England in the fourth week of July, with thunderstorms an ongoing threat with cold fronts from the Great Lakes into the Carolinas. But I see the JAS time frame as being a risk to power overuse in CAISO, SPP, ERCOT and some MISO districts, not so much the NYMEX, PJM and SEISO domains. Monsoonal moisture in Mexico may occasionally get into the Desert and Intermountain Regions, but will likely not have high impacts with the subtropical high (Sonoran) in the way.
Southern branch moisture and storms will be a factor with cooling through the southern third of the nation starting at the end of September. I suspect that the first half of winter will be that oft-abused "typical El Nino" mild/dry North/Central vs. cool/wet South alignment. But give it time, that could change.
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 11:20 P.M. MT
Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 11:20 P.M. MT
All time high at Greensboro is 104 Back during the man made Global warming days of 1914.
Not gonna be fun, but looks like the "heat wave" has morphed into just about typical July weather for us in AL.
The bad part is after that mostly "cool" and rainy May and June, its gonna slap us in the face.
The bad part is after that mostly "cool" and rainy May and June, its gonna slap us in the face.
Kind of an interesting thing about the record highs from back then is the amount of land that was dedicated to agriculture and barren of trees, especially in the Piedmont. A lot of old photos from that time period look like the plains instead of the Carolinas. Always wondered how that affected local weather to not have large forested areas we do now.
We have already had three 100 degree days at RDU in 2026 and it looks like a safe bet we will add at least three more during the coming heat wave next week. The record for one year is twelve which was set in 1999. There were ten 100 degree days in 2024. There is a good chance we may approach it with all of July, August and September to go before things cool off during the Fall months.
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Brent
Member
Well at least I don't have to watch the radar!
Feel like the official forecast may be going a little low especially for the 3rd and 4th but we will see
This is when a trip to elevations of 8,000+ feet in the amazingly refreshing Colorado Rockies can be most appreciated. I’ve been almost only in summer for that reason since I don’t ski or snowboard. Even the warm days in the 80s feel fantastic due to dew points usually only in the 10s or 20s outside of PM monsoon convection. And then the PM monsoon convection is cool to follow. It often gets downright chilly after these with temps suddenly falling to the 50s! One time I saw small hail that looked like snow on surfaces! I always travel there with a light jacket.
Euro suite was pretty mixy for the heat wave, id be ok is we could get into the upper 60s each night
Snow on ground salt lake city this a.m.
And a Lemon has popped off our coast. Old decaying front inbound. Maybe it will pull out a rabbit and thwart the death ridge inbound
And a Lemon has popped off our coast. Old decaying front inbound. Maybe it will pull out a rabbit and thwart the death ridge inbound
Think Hickory has a better chance of hitting 100 than GSP
Rain chances start back locally on the 4th. Going to be interested to see what the mountains do under the heat ridge and something can pop their and drift out into the piedmont
Shaggy
Member
Wilmington backing off our highs and no longer showing triple digits.
I think the RDU sensor has skewed reality over the past 5 years a bit. It still takes a very special pattern for most of us to go well over 100 just like it does for most of us to go below 5. The pattern modeled 5 to 7 days ago was it with the WNW mid level flow driving in the 23-28c 850s across the whole state. As we have gotten closer to go time the pac trough has nudged the ridge to the E which has directed the core of the heat into the mid atlantic while it's a slow build of heat on a north mid level flow for us. Heat is still likely to peak on the 4th for many of us in the 98-103 range and RDU sensor may still hit 106 but this isnt what it was with Thursday-possibly Tuesday all above 100
It's big heat, but I think that when the dust settles the perception will be that this heat wave was slightly overhyped.
Models have slightly backed off in ridge strength. It's pushed the axis of the ridge eastward. So, not only is the ridge weaker, but our region loses downsloping off the apps. That's the secret sauce that pushes our most severe heat waves over the edge. I'm not diminishing it, a lot of places may still break 100 (RDU probably breaks 104!) but the all-timer rhetoric from a few days ago probably doesn't come to pass.
The ridge repositioning eastward also hinders our "ring of fire" surprise storm potential. Harder to break the cap when the ridge is directly over us.
The usual suspects (great lakes eastward) are likely getting an MCS, maybe a full blown derecho. The ridge repositioning eastward means we don't benefit from the southern turn. I do think that the mountains do get some terrain storms eventually but I don't think there's enough shear to organize anything and their outflow won't have the juice to push things to lower elevations. Happy to be proven wrong though. Weird things can happen under ridges.
Models have slightly backed off in ridge strength. It's pushed the axis of the ridge eastward. So, not only is the ridge weaker, but our region loses downsloping off the apps. That's the secret sauce that pushes our most severe heat waves over the edge. I'm not diminishing it, a lot of places may still break 100 (RDU probably breaks 104!) but the all-timer rhetoric from a few days ago probably doesn't come to pass.
The ridge repositioning eastward also hinders our "ring of fire" surprise storm potential. Harder to break the cap when the ridge is directly over us.
Maybe; we might get lucky once or twice. It will be a mixed bag for CAPE under the ridge. It looks like it's going to draw in both dry air from Canada as well as advecting in a dry EML from the west. This is Friday:
The usual suspects (great lakes eastward) are likely getting an MCS, maybe a full blown derecho. The ridge repositioning eastward means we don't benefit from the southern turn. I do think that the mountains do get some terrain storms eventually but I don't think there's enough shear to organize anything and their outflow won't have the juice to push things to lower elevations. Happy to be proven wrong though. Weird things can happen under ridges.
It’s still notable heat, but the GFS as often occurs past day 5 in summer for highs in the SE US on mainly sunny days was quite a bit too hot:
These were highs for July 4th on a run from just 4 days ago: RDU 107, CLT 105, CAE 110, CHS 106, SAV 105
In comparison, here are the July 4th highs on today’s 6Z GFS: RDU 103, CLT 101, CAE 101, CHS 94, SAV 96 or 4-12 F less hot:
These were highs for July 4th on a run from just 4 days ago: RDU 107, CLT 105, CAE 110, CHS 106, SAV 105
In comparison, here are the July 4th highs on today’s 6Z GFS: RDU 103, CLT 101, CAE 101, CHS 94, SAV 96 or 4-12 F less hot:
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It felt like D6+ snow stuff with the heat hype on some posts I saw. Always too many definitive statements at range.
Here is a more apples to apples comparison with 24 hour highs on the GFS runs of 12Z 6/25 vs 6Z 6/29: most of Carolinas are 5-9F less hot! This is a common bias of the GFS in summer on mainly sunny days.
12Z 6/25 GFS 24 hour max ending 0Z 7/5:
6Z 6/29 GFS 24 hour max ending 0Z 7/5:
12Z 6/25 GFS 24 hour max ending 0Z 7/5:
6Z 6/29 GFS 24 hour max ending 0Z 7/5:
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Misery either way... this is for the birds.
Exact same thing. Reversion to mean. July's version of "gfs has a -11 monday morning in greensboro with fresh snowpack!". sadly i do think rdu's asos does have something wonky going on and will top out at 109
Brent
Member
The older I get the more and more I hate this time of year. No we're not gonna set any records probably but it's still ugh
And all these people online who begged for this weather despite being largely above normal since last fall.... I hope they are miserable every second for the next 3 months
At this point I just hope it isn't above 70 half of next winter too
And all these people online who begged for this weather despite being largely above normal since last fall.... I hope they are miserable every second for the next 3 months
At this point I just hope it isn't above 70 half of next winter too
At the same time who really cares if its 98-101 vs 103-106. Hell either way
Watch the loop and she's ( blob) trying to breathe it appears. Pinch off
BrickTamland
Member
Duke Energy is asking their consumers to set their AC to 78 or 79 during the heat wave. Maybe they should take some of that record profit they make every year and put it into updating their infrastructure.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Hard to believe this is somewhere in the US with us looking at triple digits! Enjoy!
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tennessee storm
Member
Love this weather be honest, got be smart slow. down drink plenty water Stay hydrated
From a heat index perspective- pretty much the same
103-106 readings are possible when dews are lower and you can mix more
With higher dews you have lower temps as cumulus field limits heating
But in both cases your heat index, on hottest days, will be around 110-115
Yea I noticed while high temp has fluctuated a bit back and forth, forecasted DPs have remained around 65 here during height of heat wave. Forecasted heat index (RDU) around 110 July 4th has been pretty consistent. It’s still gonna be as hot as $#@!, but we’ve seen worse in recent years.
JHS
Member
That's huge there. That's exactly why the major heatwave back in 1986 was so bad. The flow in the Carolinas came straight off the mountains. We can knock 3-6 degrees off of our temps if the downslope flow stays away.
I think that our heat coming right after the European heatwave (which was a genuine all-timer for them) influenced the perception a lot.
Euro AI really wants to turn on the seabreeze storms in ENC/NESC starting around the 7th or 8th run after run. Not sure if it's reflecting climatology or a real pattern. I don't think we've had any seabreeze storm days yet this year. We've had westerly outflows interact with the seabreeze and blow up into showers but not the pulsing type we'd normally see in summer off the boundary itself as it moves inland.
Even in our worst drought years July seems to pull through at least most of the time. So we shall see.
Even in our worst drought years July seems to pull through at least most of the time. So we shall see.