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Pattern June Gloom

Most of NC under a level 2 risk today for severe storms. Things could get interesting later today. I think the Triad southeast to Sanford and Fayetteville could get the worst of it.
 
View attachment 196573

“Periods of wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to 4 inches above 6500 feet, with localized amounts in excess of 8 inches near highest peaks.”

Road trip?

Wisdom, MT, is at 6.1K elev. The fcast is for up to 4” >6.5K ft. So, no measurable SN is forecasted there with their lowest per what you posted of 36. On record, they’ve had no measurable SN June 22nd-Aug 22nd.
 
Whereas Wisdom, MT, isn’t expecting any measurable SN, I’m wondering if W Yellowstone Gateway, which is at 6,666 ft, could get some:


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON MDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...PERIODS OF WET SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
4 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET


INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BIG SKY, WEST YELLOWSTONE, TARGHEE PASS,
AND RAYNOLDS PASS
942 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026

TONIGHT
COLDER. RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EVENING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 4 INCHES. LOWS 31 TO 37.


IF W Yell. Gate can somehow get any measurable SN late tonight, it would be a new record latest in season meas. on record by 20 days! They’ve had no meas. June 9th-Sep 14th although records go back only to 2007. But even just a T would be notable as they’ve had only 2 Ts June 28th-Sep 4th since 2007:

Records:
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #404 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 9PM TONIGHT
ww0404_radar.gif

mcd1349.png

EDIT: GOD ------- ------ SPC - WHY DID YOU HAVE TO INCLUDE US!?!!
 
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Mesoscale Discussion 1349
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...southern Virginia and northern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 271806Z - 272000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may occur this afternoon across portions of southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. A watch may be needed.

1000060773.jpg
 
Mesoscale Discussion 1349
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...southern Virginia and northern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 271806Z - 272000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may occur this afternoon across portions of southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. A watch may be needed.

View attachment 196576
See my previous post for more details.
 
Idk why my NWS dropped the 20% chance because there’s storms all over the place.

But…my not liking pop ups at all is playing out atm. This storm is going to miss me by a few miles.

Edit: Went under a severe warning for…cloudiness and some wind. Maybe the stuff that’s well to my west won’t rain out but I doubt it.
 
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The black powder shoot went well this morning (no brush fires). Now I am watching the rain taper off at my house near Lake Wheeler and Raleigh. I've got around .75 inches in the rain gauge and the Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Southern Wake County is about to expire. Not too much here to report as far as severe weather except for one lightning strike that got a little too close to the house for my dog. He was shaking for a little bit but he is fine now.
 
I am curious if those storms out to the west are going to weaken due to the fact that rain already stabilized the atmosphere? We already have seen our tstorms for the day and wonder if the storms are going to actually weaken.
 
Another swing and a miss here. I think this is going to be another 1993 here when we got .30 for a June-August total. 12 inches below normal here that summer.
 
Heavy popup over me just started!

The above popup, which didn’t last too long, still gave me ~0.3-0.4”. And now a new popup line of t-storms along the seabreeze is moving in with heavy rainfall potential per radar.

This 2nd one ended up fizzling quickly as it came in after just a brief period of mainly just moderate rain. I estimate my total for today at 1/2”, which gets me to ~5.15” MTD. This further delays the earliest I’ll need to restart watering.
 
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Had some more rain and thunder. Looks like another round to the west could be coming through later if they hold up.
I'm watching those storms to our west too. I'd love to receive an inch of rain today. Only .25 inches to go thanks to the first storms that rolled through.
 
I am curious if those storms out to the west are going to weaken due to the fact that rain already stabilized the atmosphere? We already have seen our tstorms for the day and wonder if the storms are going to actually weaken.
And i was right. Storms weakening as they head east. Good night everyone. Some moar storms tomorrow.
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Missed the severe earlier to the south. Had another situation earlier where it was raining while the sun was out. (happened yesterday too) That's more of a coast thing in my experience. Anyway, hoping for another downpour in about 30 mins.
 
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