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Pattern June Gloom

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #381 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8PM TONIGHT
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Yep, looks like another watch is coming today. Based on radar it looks like there is a bigger chance of storms in the Triangle today than yesterday.

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Mesoscale Discussion 1271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina/Virginia into
southern Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 231510Z - 231645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase through midday.
Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely
be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Clear skies and strong heating across eastern NC into
southeast VA has allowed temperatures to rapidly rise into the 80s
to near 90 F across the region late this morning. A very moist
airmass with mid 70s dewpoints in in place, resulting in modest
destabilization ahead of a surface cold front, and a growing cumulus
field is already evident. Regional VWP data from RAX and LWX
indicate around 30-40 kt southwesterly mid/upper flow spreading east
across the area in tandem with a shortwave impulse. This is
resulting in 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes over the region
(stronger with northward extent). Convection is already developing
over the higher terrain of central NC/VA. The expectation is for
this activity to gradually increase in intensity and organization as
it spreads east into the Piedmont and coastal vicinity. Steep
low-level lapse rates within the moist environment will support
damaging gusts.

There is also some indication of a remnant MCV from overnight
convection moving across central NC. Given the very moist boundary
layer and any enhancement to low-level shear this feature may pose,
a tornado or two also could occur, though confidence in this
scenario is low. Northward extent of greater severe risk is a bit
uncertain. Cloudiness persists across MD/DE/southern NJ, and
low-level flow is already veered. A strong storm or two could occur
in these areas, especially given stronger flow, but storms may
develop very near the coast in these areas and quickly move
offshore.
 
It's pouring buckets in Cary where I am at work and radar shows there maybe more to come later today.. I'll be interested to see what the rain gauge shows when I get home today. If we had missed out on some much needed rain today, I honestly don't see another good chance in the forecast for the next seven days at least.
 
weather bubba said:
I ended up with only .51 inches at my residence near Lake Wheeler outside of Raleigh today. That makes 1.16 inches since Friday which is only a drop in the bucket compared to what we need but it is progress at least.
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Buys us some time at least right?

My locale has wet grass and frogs croaking in the background on the lake (not nearly as big as wheeler, but we still call it a lake). I'd call that a win all around.
 
FallsLake said:
Awesome day on the outer banks today. 74 degrees and breezy. Almost too cool sitting in the shade. Time for a nap….
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What part are you at? Always been fascinated at how different the outer banks are weather wise from the “regular” Carolina beaches, especially spring/early summer. Went to Ocracoke awhile back in late May, and it was downright chilly at times.

Edit: I just noticed you said Kitty Hawk.
 
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JUST IN: Tsunami Advisory issued for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands after an M 7.1 Earthquake has struck along the coast of Venezuela in the Caribbean Sea.

The US Tsunami Warning Center says

An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.1 occurred near the coast of venezuela at 6:05 pm ast on wednesday, june 24, 2026.
tsunami threat: based on all available data, there is a tsunami threat to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in the form of sea level fluctuations and strong ocean currents. these could be a hazard along coasts, beaches, in harbors, and in coastal waters.

Estimated arrival time: the earliest estimated time that hazardous sea level fluctuations and strong ocean currents may begin in puerto rico and the virgin islands is 7:19 pm ast on Wednesday, June 24, 2026.

Immediate Actions: actions to protect human life, safety, and property should be taken immediately.

Status updates:
the generation of tsunami waves has not yet been confirmed.

Monitoring is underway to further evaluate the tsunami threat. Stay tuned for advice from local officials.
 
BrickTamland said:
JUST IN: Tsunami Advisory issued for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands after an M 7.1 Earthquake has struck along the coast of Venezuela in the Caribbean Sea.

The US Tsunami Warning Center says

An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.1 occurred near the coast of venezuela at 6:05 pm ast on wednesday, june 24, 2026.
tsunami threat: based on all available data, there is a tsunami threat to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in the form of sea level fluctuations and strong ocean currents. these could be a hazard along coasts, beaches, in harbors, and in coastal waters.

Estimated arrival time: the earliest estimated time that hazardous sea level fluctuations and strong ocean currents may begin in puerto rico and the virgin islands is 7:19 pm ast on Wednesday, June 24, 2026.

Immediate Actions: actions to protect human life, safety, and property should be taken immediately.

Status updates:
the generation of tsunami waves has not yet been confirmed.

Monitoring is underway to further evaluate the tsunami threat. Stay tuned for advice from local officials.
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Apparently it did it again like a minute after the 7.1. 7.5.
 
And now the USGS now says that a rare “doublet” earthquake occurred in Venezuela, two quakes of similar magnitude in the exact same spot, a 7.5 and a 7.2 earthquake. They say there is the potential of hundreds, if not thousands, of deaths from this earthquake, and serious damage has already been reported, with many building collapses in highly urban areas.
 
Last spectacular morning up this way waking up with temps in the 50's. The old South wind should start to kick in latter today. Back to the muggies Friday onward 90/68-70 with 30% chance pop up every afternoon. Be the story Jul1-Aug 20.

I got house money on storms being around the evening of July 4th. never fails. Even in the midst of mega drought, somehow someway we will witness rain and thunder between 7-9pm on July 4th. want happen 7/3 or 7/5. But lock it in 7/4
 
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BrickTamland said:
And now the USGS now says that a rare “doublet” earthquake occurred in Venezuela, two quakes of similar magnitude in the exact same spot, a 7.5 and a 7.2 earthquake. They say there is the potential of hundreds, if not thousands, of deaths from this earthquake, and serious damage has already been reported, with many building collapses in highly urban areas.
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I worry what these seemingly increased number of quakes is foreshadowing
 
A popup line of convection has developed along the sea breeze front and it started raining here a few minutes ago. It then got on and off heavy and still is.
 
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