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Pattern June Gloom

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #381 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8PM TONIGHT
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Yep, looks like another watch is coming today. Based on radar it looks like there is a bigger chance of storms in the Triangle today than yesterday.

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Mesoscale Discussion 1271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina/Virginia into
southern Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 231510Z - 231645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase through midday.
Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely
be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Clear skies and strong heating across eastern NC into
southeast VA has allowed temperatures to rapidly rise into the 80s
to near 90 F across the region late this morning. A very moist
airmass with mid 70s dewpoints in in place, resulting in modest
destabilization ahead of a surface cold front, and a growing cumulus
field is already evident. Regional VWP data from RAX and LWX
indicate around 30-40 kt southwesterly mid/upper flow spreading east
across the area in tandem with a shortwave impulse. This is
resulting in 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes over the region
(stronger with northward extent). Convection is already developing
over the higher terrain of central NC/VA. The expectation is for
this activity to gradually increase in intensity and organization as
it spreads east into the Piedmont and coastal vicinity. Steep
low-level lapse rates within the moist environment will support
damaging gusts.

There is also some indication of a remnant MCV from overnight
convection moving across central NC. Given the very moist boundary
layer and any enhancement to low-level shear this feature may pose,
a tornado or two also could occur, though confidence in this
scenario is low. Northward extent of greater severe risk is a bit
uncertain. Cloudiness persists across MD/DE/southern NJ, and
low-level flow is already veered. A strong storm or two could occur
in these areas, especially given stronger flow, but storms may
develop very near the coast in these areas and quickly move
offshore.
 
It's pouring buckets in Cary where I am at work and radar shows there maybe more to come later today.. I'll be interested to see what the rain gauge shows when I get home today. If we had missed out on some much needed rain today, I honestly don't see another good chance in the forecast for the next seven days at least.
 
Storm was a dud here. Went to my north. The storm last week was a lot more impressive and I was under a warning with the one that just missed me.
 
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