Shaggy
Member
Not sure I can remember a storm that produced TS force and H force winds to a location for almost 72 hours straight. Maybe Mitch or Dorian but Sinilauku sat over Saipan/rota/Guam for a very very long time.
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Tropical 2026 Tropics Thread 🌀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NC State released their forecast, predicting a near-average season with 12-15 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes. (Graphic from WRAL) 
I think the shear puts a lid on the Atlantic and we have a much BN year. This EC trough we just started for closing out April into May is perhaps a percussor of things to come over summer and fall 2026
lexxnchloe
Member
I doubt the trof is dominant in summer, though it would be nice to cut down on the heat. We have had an East coast trof for years now even with strong Nina's
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS off and running
May hurricane on the 18Z GFS, what could go wrong??
Brent
Member
Oh no... I'm not ready for this haha
Drought buster!
Lucky us. We got not one but two posters posting about the same fake late in the run GFS hurricane. I hope this isn’t a sign of posts to come ITT.
Can there possibly be a separate thread for fake hurricanes? Wasn’t there one before?
Can there possibly be a separate thread for fake hurricanes? Wasn’t there one before?
NoSnowATL
Member
Big bend to Naples. That’s been a track favorite for a few years.
lexxnchloe
Member
The Ole GFS with its annual Central American gyre spinoff. Sooner or later, it'll get one to work out.
Wulfer
Member
Does the GFS take in account for the colder waters from this years winter and spring?
Yes. The GFS is coupled.
Brent
Member
Euro now also showing something trying to form the first few days of June 
Shaggy
Member
That would go a long way to help with the drought situation
The GFS remains insistent on spinning up a CA gyre spinoff. The genesis of the circulation is now within a week, so it deserves a bit more attention. There is some support from the CMC, but the EURO isn't biting.
If nothing else, rain chances in the SE US look to remain elevated.
If nothing else, rain chances in the SE US look to remain elevated.
lexxnchloe
Member
Nice storm whipping into New England
GFS for Monday:
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
I liked how Levi showed a map of landfalling hurricanes in El Niño years in this video. A sobering reminder that even though overall activity is likely to be reduced, some bangers still can occur.
Michael, Camille, and many other devastating hurricanes occurred in El Niño years.
Agreed. Indeed, it only takes one to possibly be a bad year and unfortunately even some strong+ El Niño seasons (where we’re likely headed) have had bad hits in the CONUS. Keep in mind that just a TS hit or even just a TD can cause devastating freshwater floods if slow moving.
I just looked at the 13 strong El Niño seasons.
High impact storms in Conus during strong+ Nino (per RONI for 1950+)(2023 excluded since RONI peak only +1.49; so I didn’t count Idalia): I found 12
July 1997: H Danny (extreme rains Mobile area)
August 1991: H Bob (NC OB to E NE) though Nino not strong til later
June 1972: H Agnes in FL due to tornadoes and in PA as TS due to extreme rains though Nino not strong til later
Sept 1965: MH Betsy (one of New Orleans’ worst)
June 1957: MH Audrey (near TX/LA border) although Nino not strong til later
June 1902: TS storm #2 flooding rains TX although Nino not strong til later
July 1896: H storm #1 Pensacola though Nino not strong til later
Sept 1896: MH storm #4 NW FL and major damage well up into E US although not strong Nino til later
August 1888: MH/H storm #3 S FL/New Orleans although Nino not strong til later
Oct 1888: H storm #7 NW FL with TS winds up E coast to NE
Sept 1877: H storm #2 entire US Gulf coast
Oct 1877: MH storm #4 NW FL with TS/ET wind/rain damage well up E US
——————
- Per best tracks, all TCGs of these 12 high impact storms were W of 50W with most W of 70W.
-Only 5 of these 12 high impact Conus storms hit when Nino was already strong. So, early season could be the riskiest portion, which is pretty intuitive. Then again, MH Betsy (1965) and MH (storm #4) in 1877 hit when Nino already very strong. So, these are just good guidelines since nothing’s set in stone.
-These 12 hit during 9 of the 13 seasons that were strong+ Nino seasons. So, only 2015, 1987, 1982, and 1930 of these 13 had no Conus high impact storm. So, whereas there’s legit hope the Conus will be largely unscathed with the upcoming very strong Nino, I unfortunately wouldn’t bet against one ruining things somewhere even if isn’t a MH as was the case 7 of the 12 times.
Despite the above, the good news is that there’s a very good chance for a quieter than average season overall for the Conus. Thus, the chances of a multiple storm high impact year like 2024, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2008, 2005, 2004, 1999, 1998, 1996, and 1985 among others is lower than average despite 2 storms with high impact hits in 1896, 1888, and 1877.
My ‘26 season Atlantic tropics prediction:
8/4/1 and ACE of 52
Does anyone else want to predict? If we get enough I’d think we could turn this into a nice little fun board contest. If so, I’d push to get guesses in by, say, Friday or so. I don’t know of anyone else here with a prediction.
8/4/1 and ACE of 52
Does anyone else want to predict? If we get enough I’d think we could turn this into a nice little fun board contest. If so, I’d push to get guesses in by, say, Friday or so. I don’t know of anyone else here with a prediction.
BeachDMD
Member
6/3/1 with an ACE of 46
lexxnchloe
Member
13/7/2 95.37 ace
Shaggy
Member
I think this will be a hard year to predict. I know El Nino will hurt the season. Nhc over the last 10 years has increased their naming of sheared out naked swirls so I could see more named storms than in a typical Nino but far less hurricanes. Just never know what the nhc will throw a name on.
That's a good point. Names handed out like candy make the total number difficult to predict. We've already seen a big plume or two of dust and the MDR is still below normal. But shear will likely be the big deal this year. Still just takes one or two to make a memorable season.
Brent
Member
Yeah I feel the same way I mean I definitely wouldn't get my hopes up if you want some interesting threats but who knows. I've been saying for years that we are overdue for a really dead year like back in the 80s with only 4-5 storms but I'm not even sure it's possible these days with the way they name more stuff. The average when I was a kid growing up in the 90s was 9 storms and now 14-15 storms is considered average. It's crazy. People don't realize that how busy it's been since 2005 really isn't a normal thing. We've been very spoiled from an interesting storms position too. There was a stretch when I was a kid also no hurricanes hit the US for almost 3 years. Just imagine that happening today
And again even in really really dead years you had storms like Andrew... On August 24th it hit Miami. And it almost fell apart even before that because the rest of the Atlantic was so hostile
And again even in really really dead years you had storms like Andrew... On August 24th it hit Miami. And it almost fell apart even before that because the rest of the Atlantic was so hostile
Anyone else want to enter this little forecasting contest for the ‘26 ATL tropics? Please try to get in by Sunday evening. The winner wins a very nice kudos! What’s better than that?!
Entrants:
Me 8/4/1 ACE 52
BeachDMD 6/3/1 46
lexx 13/7/2 95.37
Entrants:
Me 8/4/1 ACE 52
BeachDMD 6/3/1 46
lexx 13/7/2 95.37
12/5/2 82.1