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March 2026 - Winter or Spring?

This isn’t a great place to post this. But since we understandably don’t yet have a winter ‘26-7 thread, I think this is the best place for now:

Although we should take the new CANSIPS run with a huge grain with it being so far out, it’s at least encouraging from my perspective to see this for two reasons:

-decent chance at a much less active hurricane season ACE vs recent years in 2026

**-next winter’s E US cold potential

Regarding next winter, the run for Jan 2027 is colder in practically the entire lower 48 vs the run from one year ago for Jan of 2026.
Current 2m run for Jan ‘27…N America has the largest and most intense area of BN on globe (and vs 1981-2010 to boot) and is slightly colder than last month’s run:
IMG_8597.png

One year ago’s 2m run for Jan of ‘26…sig. warmer than new run for Jan ‘27:
IMG_8596.png

Also, SE precip for Jan ‘27 is mainly AN, which is consistent with moderate or stronger El Niño climo:
IMG_8600.png
 
Last edited:
SD said:
We are probably going to get the opportunity to see if cold can actually overwhelm the pattern the 2nd half of the month. There's going to be just about a full dump of cold off the pole into north America but the pattern as a whole doesn't favor cold in the east
Click to expand...
Who wants cold weather. Especially this time year lol
 
SD said:
We are probably going to get the opportunity to see if cold can actually overwhelm the pattern the 2nd half of the month. There's going to be just about a full dump of cold off the pole into north America but the pattern as a whole doesn't favor cold in the east
Click to expand...

I was just telling someone earlier I'm not convinced winter is over yet... Ha

It's been way too easy this year
 
The current drought throughout the SE US is serious business! In my area, for example, the last 6 months’ 9.38” were in the aggregate at KSAV the driest Sept-Feb since way back in 1931-2 (though 1931-2 was much drier) and were <50% of the 1991-2020 avg of 19.74”!

Driest Sept-Feb KSAV on record:

6.52” 1931-2
6.64” 1917-8
7.78” 1901-2
9.04” 1906-7
9.06” 1889-90
9.38” 2025-6
9.44” 2001-2
9.55” 1940-1

19.74” 30 yr avg
 
GaWx said:
This isn’t a great place to post this. But since we understandably don’t yet have a winter ‘26-7 thread, I think this is the best place for now:

Although we have to take the new CANSIPS run for with a huge grain with it being so far out, it’s at least encouraging from my perspective to see this for two reasons:

-decent chance at a much less active hurricane season ACE vs recent years in 2026

**-next winter’s E US cold potential

Regarding next winter, the run for Jan 2027 is colder in practically the entire lower 48 vs the run from one year ago for Jan of 2026.
Current 2m run for Jan ‘27…N America has the largest and most intense area of BN on globe (and vs 1981-2010 to boot) and is slightly colder than last month’s run:
View attachment 194638

One year ago’s 2m run for Jan of ‘26…sig. warmer than new run for Jan ‘27:
View attachment 194639

Also, SE precip for Jan ‘27 is mainly AN, which is consistent with moderate or stronger El Niño climo:
View attachment 194640
Click to expand...
I am all aboard next winter. It may be the one that bucks the trend of recent underwhelming ninos
 
GaWx said:
This isn’t a great place to post this. But since we understandably don’t yet have a winter ‘26-7 thread, I think this is the best place for now:

Although we should take the new CANSIPS run with a huge grain with it being so far out, it’s at least encouraging from my perspective to see this for two reasons:

-decent chance at a much less active hurricane season ACE vs recent years in 2026

**-next winter’s E US cold potential

Regarding next winter, the run for Jan 2027 is colder in practically the entire lower 48 vs the run from one year ago for Jan of 2026.
Current 2m run for Jan ‘27…N America has the largest and most intense area of BN on globe (and vs 1981-2010 to boot) and is slightly colder than last month’s run:
View attachment 194638

One year ago’s 2m run for Jan of ‘26…sig. warmer than new run for Jan ‘27:
View attachment 194639

Also, SE precip for Jan ‘27 is mainly AN, which is consistent with moderate or stronger El Niño climo:
View attachment 194640
Click to expand...
AFF3396B-694A-482D-AE80-99A256B68A2F.png9DD4DB7F-48EA-44FF-96E7-A815BF5D23A6.png6DA02695-F89E-4DF3-A32E-C9BD857BA27E.pngCansips for next winter is absolutely gas.

QPF would only load through January for some reason on Wxbell, but the southern jet footprint along with decent cold tap nearby is mint.

And it’s only 9+ months away 😆
 
Tarheel1 said:
When spring? View attachment 194612
Click to expand...

GaWx said:
This isn’t a great place to post this. But since we understandably don’t yet have a winter ‘26-7 thread, I think this is the best place for now:

Although we should take the new CANSIPS run with a huge grain with it being so far out, it’s at least encouraging from my perspective to see this for two reasons:

-decent chance at a much less active hurricane season ACE vs recent years in 2026

**-next winter’s E US cold potential

Regarding next winter, the run for Jan 2027 is colder in practically the entire lower 48 vs the run from one year ago for Jan of 2026.
Current 2m run for Jan ‘27…N America has the largest and most intense area of BN on globe (and vs 1981-2010 to boot) and is slightly colder than last month’s run:
View attachment 194638

One year ago’s 2m run for Jan of ‘26…sig. warmer than new run for Jan ‘27:
View attachment 194639

Also, SE precip for Jan ‘27 is mainly AN, which is consistent with moderate or stronger El Niño climo:
View attachment 194640
Click to expand...
Issue with posting these is the amount of flip flopping they can do, looking almost an entire year ahead is inaccurate, not even the ENSO is a lock during this timeframe.
 
It does seem like we could move into a more favorable pattern after mid-month. The issue is that we are quickly moving out of our climo favorability, so not likely to make anything of it even if we do get a "good" pattern later in the month. The GFS had an interesting system a couple weeks out that showed how we could make something work, though (it was a rainstorm, but not too far off from something).
 
superjames1992 said:
It does seem like we could move into a more favorable pattern after mid-month. The issue is that we are quickly moving out of our climo favorability, so not likely to make anything of it even if we do get a "good" pattern later in the month. The GFS had an interesting system a couple weeks out that showed how we could make something work, though (it was a rainstorm, but not too far off from something).
Click to expand...

We lose climo favorability as we get deeper into March, but one thing going for us this year had been the tendency for strongly amplified patterns since the end of November. If we flip cold it'll likely feature some of the coldest March temps we have seen in a while and an extra sigma for any upper lows/troughs. In theory, anyway.
 
SnowNiner said:
I don't think that's what you want to hear for next year's winter IMO. Strong ninos usually blast the conus with the pacific jet and we roast.
Click to expand...

1. Neither Eric or anyone can possibly know at this very early stage how strong El Niño will be. It’s not that predictable and some models like the Euro have had a warm bias even all the way through summer progs. It could very well end up strong or even super-strong, but it could also end up weaker just because we and models don’t know.

2. I feel like RONI would be a more telling index to predict than ONI. RONi has recently been ~0.3C cooler. Eric may not be explicitly taking that into account.

3. There have been some strong to super ones that were cold in the SE: 2009-10, 1965-6, and 1957-8. And usually they don’t cause the SE to roast. 2015-6 was pretty much the first to do that.
 
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