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Pattern January Joke

I do see temps closer to normal here showing up at least once we get into January

AccuWeather trying to hint at colder temperatures towards mid month I mean I don't trust it but it didn't have any cold air the other day haha well see
 
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Webberweather53 said:
This is about as bleak looking of a January & February as I’ve seen collectively in a long time.

The only card that could be played is pushing the warm pool more quickly to the east but time is running out to make that happen.
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Good thing it will change several times before verification. That's been the theme all season.... bet the streak baby.
 
The warmest Euro Weeklies run so far this season is still yesterday’s as todays is slightly less warm during several weeks. So, slightly better than yesterday but still ugly overall. It doesn’t look as good as two runs ago that were all NN in the SE 1/12-2/1. Todays for that period is AN in the SE. Consistent with that, today’s doesn’t show signs of a building +PNA in the means like the run from 2 days ago showed.

A year ago at this time the EW were quite cold for much of Jan, which got me so excited and verified very well.

As always when it’s warm, I’ll continue to hope it busts badly.
 
I do like the progression of our -NAO on that GFS run. This can shake the pattern up. I think it gives us a shot as it rotates westward towards the pole. This would give us a shot at some cold air and also a chance to establish a 50/50 low at some point to slow the pattern down. IMG_7076.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol whatever helps you cope I guess. I was told the same thing about this Christmas torch a few weeks ago 😂
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I have learned over the last 20 years that those long-range forecasts rarely verify. Even with today's models. How many long-range warm-ups have we seen this season get muted as we got closer. 384hour snowstorms or record high temps never verify. So, to talk in absolutes about a long-range weather pattern, is risky. The weather can and will humble you. Guaranteed....
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I have learned over the last 20 years that those long-range forecasts rarely verify. Even with today's models. How many long-range warm-ups have we seen this season get muted as we got closer. 384hour snowstorms or record high temps never verify. So, to talk in absolutes about a long-range weather pattern, is risky. The weather can and will humble you. Guaranteed....
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Us going into the ice box for 90%+ of January of last year was actually pretty well forecasted in the long range.

I think the way I look at it is that what kinda started in the middle of this year was always going to come to an end at some point naturally pattern wise. Well, it may still be going on to an extent with the ridge focusing on the central US instead of the east, but it doesn’t seem like it’ll be beneficial unless you have a cold shot snuck in at some point with the right timing due to the Pacific blasting all the cold air off the continent below Canada.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Us going into the ice box for 90%+ of January of last year was actually pretty well forecasted in the long range.

I think the way I look at it is that what kinda started in the middle of this year was always going to come to an end at some point naturally pattern wise. Well, it may still be going on to an extent with the ridge focusing on the central US instead of the east, but it doesn’t seem like it’ll be beneficial unless you have a cold shot snuck in at some point due to the Pacific blasting all the cold air off the continent below Canada.
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Yes. While I think long range pattern recognition can verify it can also do something completely different when that time arrives, but those cold shots of air can sometimes sneak right on us!
 
It’s hard for me to get excited for much of anything at the moment based on what I see

If the pacific wasn’t complete trash, if we had a strong subtropical jet to more easily undercut any ridging that develops over eastern Canada, or if it was late in the winter where the wavelengths could shorten a lot more, I might have reason to be a little excited.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It’s hard for me to get excited for much of anything at the moment based on what I see

If the pacific wasn’t complete trash, if we had a strong subtropical jet to more easily undercut any ridging that develops over eastern Canada, or if it was late in the winter where the wavelengths could shorten a lot more, I might have reason to be a little excited.
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Yeah I dunno I don't expect much here til mid January at least
 
There's an abundance of cold air in Canada. The odds are highest that THAT will remain the case. The odds are also high that some sort of -NAO develops.

We are walking a very fine line between TORCH/MID/ICEBOX. A slight repositioning of a couple of key features can change everything very, very quickly.

I can certainly see the case for meh, but that is by no means a stone cold lock. Unfortunately for everyone, we're just going to have to wait and see.
 
Rain Cold said:
There's an abundance of cold air in Canada. The odds are highest that THAT will remain the case. The odds are also high that some sort of -NAO develops.

We are walking a very fine line between TORCH/MID/ICEBOX. A slight repositioning of a couple of key features can change everything very, very quickly.

I can certainly see the case for meh, but that is by no means a stone cold lock. Unfortunately for everyone, we're just going ti have to wait and see.
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Wake me up when we fix the Pacific. The Aleutian ridge needs to go
 
Seeing that post yesterday of the TV met here who went to his place in Utah he's gone for 30+ years and no snow and even worse it rained on him saying it was the worst hes ever seen was yeah... I think it's gonna be a very slow process but I do feel like it's coming eventually. There's a lot of cold air in Canada for sure. In the short term the cold air next week looks transient again here. I've already seen a forecast of 70 again for New Years Day

Yes getting rid of the ridge in Alaska would be a good start
 
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Rain Cold said:
Oh I agree 100%.
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packfan98 said:
Yeah. I guess we could back into a CAD storm if we are lucky. Definitely going to be ups and downs with regards to sensible weather.
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Im not trolling at all here, I really am trying to find a reason to be enthusiastic about where things are headed. It’s super hard to be based on what I’m seeing.

We could definitely stumble our way into a CAD storm if we get an upper low to cut off at the right time, but good luck trying to predict that more than 5-6 days out
 
rburrel2 said:
The progged nao blocking at least gives us a chance at something wintry even with the persistent Aleutian ridge, even if the windows are small and the chances are low.

It beats a persistent SE ridge.
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Regardless, it makes it significantly colder for ~3 days for the E US. Loving it!

It also shows how far off the models can be at 2 weeks.
 
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