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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

The latest Euro Weeklies are the most active yet in the W Caribbean for the week of 10/13-19 (if I were in the FL pen., I’d be a bit concerned for midmonth):

Forecast nearby TC probabilities:
IMG_4737.png


Anomalies vs 2005-24 climo: wow!
IMG_4736.png
 
The E MDR AOI is now Invest 95L:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this week as the system moves quickly across the
central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward
Islands by the latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
 
GaWx said:
The E MDR AOI is now Invest 95L:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this week as the system moves quickly across the
central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward
Islands by the latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Click to expand...
Looks good on satellite and should make a new named storm. Sticking to the seasonal trend of early recurves so no worries with this one.
 
Shaggy said:
Looks good on satellite and should make a new named storm. Sticking to the seasonal trend of early recurves so no worries with this one.
Click to expand...

The Conus looks safe from this assuming it becomes a TD well out in the MDR. But the Leewards to near PR could still be threatened late week.

Assuming this develops well before the Lesser Antilles, the only potential threats to the SE anytime soon would appear to be from home-brew/much closer formations.

Although TS Chantal and offshore H Erin had significant impacts on parts of NC that I don’t think should be downplayed, the Conus has yet to be impacted with hurricane conditions. Will the Conus get lucky in that regard this year? Only 20% of full seasons have had no H impacts. The last one was in 2015. Only 6 La Niña seasons have had none though fairly recent ones like 2010 and 2000 are among the six. Many more (15) were during El Niño, which of course is intuitive.
 
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Regarding Invest 95L:

12Z UKMET: further SW than 0Z run as it goes WNW to Leewards and PR followed by NW and then NNW turn to near Erin’s position NE of Turks/Caicos (pretty weak and a little weaker than 0Z) with a safe recurve from the Conus as it is taken out by an upper trough:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.6N 53.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.10.2025 84 14.2N 55.1W 1009 36
1200UTC 09.10.2025 96 15.4N 58.6W 1009 37
0000UTC 10.10.2025 108 16.5N 61.9W 1008 33
1200UTC 10.10.2025 120 17.1N 64.7W 1009 34
0000UTC 11.10.2025 132 18.9N 67.3W 1008 33
1200UTC 11.10.2025 144 20.5N 69.1W 1008 38
0000UTC 12.10.2025 156 22.3N 70.6W 1007 34
1200UTC 12.10.2025 168 24.2N 71.4W 1006 33
—————

Edit: Does anyone know how to save an image from Pivotal if not a member without having to do a screenshot?

IMG_4751.png
 
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Shaggy said:
Northern stream gets cranking on the 06z gfs. Nothing threatening in the long range but it would be time to watch the GOM for any development as it would most likely get yanked north quickly into the parade of troughs
Click to expand...
CAG looks like it wants to crank.
 
I will say straight up that besides a scare for the Antilles or maybe Bermuda again this is headed out to sea. But it could easily be another big hurricane over water by the weekend95L_tracks_latest.png
 
Going straight to Jerry it appears

AL, 10, 2025100712, , BEST, 0, 113N, 438W, 40, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 90, 0, 0, 1012, 130, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JERRY, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029, TRANSITIONED, alB52025 to al102025,
 
Invest 96L up near 45N NW of the Azores
is almost certainly going to get named (whether subtropical or tropical) imho based on this special TWO and Papin being in the house! 8PM TWO % will likely rise substantially from this:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Special outlook issued to update information about the gale-force
low located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores.

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located just southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

1. North Atlantic (AL96):
Updated: Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized
today in association with a gale-force area of low pressure located
several hundred miles to the northwest of the Azores. If these
development trends continue, a subtropical or tropical storm could
form as soon as tonight while the system moves slowly northwestward.
Over the weekend, the system is expected to move over even cooler
waters, ending its chances of further development. For more
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at


Forecaster Papin/Roberts
 
GaWx said:
Invest 96L up near 45N NW of the Azores
is almost certainly going to get named (whether subtropical or tropical) imho based on this special TWO and Papin being in the house! 8PM TWO % will likely rise substantially from this:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Special outlook issued to update information about the gale-force
low located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores.

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located just southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

1. North Atlantic (AL96):
Updated: Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized
today in association with a gale-force area of low pressure located
several hundred miles to the northwest of the Azores. If these
development trends continue, a subtropical or tropical storm could
form as soon as tonight while the system moves slowly northwestward.
Over the weekend, the system is expected to move over even cooler
waters, ending its chances of further development. For more
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at


Forecaster Papin/Roberts
Click to expand...

Please become Karen so it goes away quickly 🤣 🤣
 
Brent said:
Please become Karen so it goes away quickly 🤣 🤣
Click to expand...

Folks,
As weird as this season has been, it may get weirder!
A look just now at historical genesis locations on record tells me that Invest 96L, already way up near 44.5N, could easily become the furthest N genesis for either a TC or STC as the furthest N on record is 42N (unnamed storm in 1952)! And it figures this would be named Karen, which almost certainly means she’ll be back in 2031, consistent with her plan to get named that far N:

en.wikipedia.org

1952 Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

 
GaWx said:
Folks,
As weird as this season has been, it may get weirder!
A look just now at historical genesis locations on record tells me that Invest 96L, already way up near 44.5N, could easily become the furthest N genesis for either a TC or STC as the furthest N on record is 42N (unnamed storm in 1952)! And it figures this would be named Karen, which almost certainly means she’ll be back in 2031, consistent with her plan to get named that far N:

en.wikipedia.org

1952 Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Click to expand...
Interesting that a named storm could (potentially) form that far north, while the SE coast nor'easter this weekend likely won't qualify.
 
Like her or not, Karen, who complained to forecaster Papin about not being heard, looks to be coming, folks, with her chances up to 60%/60%!

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located just southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

1. North Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
with a small gale-force area of low pressure located several hundred
miles to the northwest of the Azores. Only a small increase in
organization could result in the formation of a subtropical
or tropical storm as soon as tonight, as the system moves slowly
northwestward. Over the weekend, the system is expected to move
over cooler waters, ending its chances of further development. For
more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo
France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Papin

IMG_4794.jpeg
 
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Brent said:
People on the Internet I swear 🤣 🤣 🤣 View attachment 175457
Click to expand...

Despite me now having fun with the Karen silliness because it really is ridiculously silly, I fully see Mike’s point. When I first started hearing about using the name “Karen” as an insult, a part of me immediately actually disliked it partially because I had known several Karens and they were fine people. But since then I lightened up about it and figured many people named Karen probably laugh along with the silliness.

Brent, if your name started to be used in a similar silly way, would you just laugh along with it? I’m guessing you’d think it was hilarious. In my case, I would laugh.
 
GaWx said:
Despite me now having fun with the Karen silliness because it really is ridiculously silly, I fully see Mike’s point. When I first started hearing about using the name “Karen” as an insult, a part of me immediately actually disliked it partially because I had known several Karens and they were fine people. But since then I lightened up about it and figured many people named Karen probably laugh along with the silliness.

Brent, if your name started to be used in a similar silly way, would you just laugh along with it? I’m guessing you’d think it was hilarious. In my case, I would laugh.
Click to expand...

Yeah I mean I just assumed people already knew Karen gets a different kind of vibe... I mean people were talking about it being on the list before the season even started 😂 and it was just even funnier to see it be a weak nothing storm after all that buildup
 
JB isn’t happy:

Laughable NHC Antics

The naming of Karen in the North Atlantic as a subtropical storm is laughable to me, but it has now become a talking point for people pushing missives about climate change. This despite a season that has fallen short of the means of the last 5 seasons, and one of them with a strong el Niño.

It underscores what I have been trying to push for close to 2 decades. If you want to name these systems that develop a warmer core within the realm of a colder environment, then you need a 2 tier season. That you would have something like this, which has a nice structure but is a warmer feature within the colder environment and over water temps that are 2-4C °C degrees below the threshold of 26C we use for storms, is a joke to me.

In the meantime, look at this on Sept 16 from a storm that developed over the Gulf Stream did this to SE Va, along with causing the collapse of houses into the ocean on the Outer Banks

It was totally ignored by the National Hurricane Center. This has been going on since I can remember. I will watch storms get named in the middle of nowhere (we call them ham sandwiches at weatherbell.com), where no one can actually see what they do, but then we see features like this, which are enough to feed back and convert rapidly to at least subtropical systems and hit people, and no one says boo.

But a massive overhaul has to be done at the NHC. There is too much subjectivity and that shackles people relying on their expertise, which, btw is considerable, on these matters.
—————-

Any thoughts?
 
GaWx said:
JB isn’t happy:

Laughable NHC Antics

The naming of Karen in the North Atlantic as a subtropical storm is laughable to me, but it has now become a talking point for people pushing missives about climate change. This despite a season that has fallen short of the means of the last 5 seasons, and one of them with a strong el Niño.

It underscores what I have been trying to push for close to 2 decades. If you want to name these systems that develop a warmer core within the realm of a colder environment, then you need a 2 tier season. That you would have something like this, which has a nice structure but is a warmer feature within the colder environment and over water temps that are 2-4C °C degrees below the threshold of 26C we use for storms, is a joke to me.

In the meantime, look at this on Sept 16 from a storm that developed over the Gulf Stream did this to SE Va, along with causing the collapse of houses into the ocean on the Outer Banks

It was totally ignored by the National Hurricane Center. This has been going on since I can remember. I will watch storms get named in the middle of nowhere (we call them ham sandwiches at weatherbell.com), where no one can actually see what they do, but then we see features like this, which are enough to feed back and convert rapidly to at least subtropical systems and hit people, and no one says boo.

But a massive overhaul has to be done at the NHC. There is too much subjectivity and that shackles people relying on their expertise, which, btw is considerable, on these matters.
—————-

Any thoughts?
Click to expand...

He's probably just unhappy the season has been boring from a landfall standpoint 🤣 🤣 🤣
 
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