It's really hard to get a pure TC into the east coast much above 30N in October. Something to keep in mind about Hazel is it was MOVING and beginning extra-tropical transition as it made landfall. Westerlies and cooler water wait for no one.
Looks good on satellite and should make a new named storm. Sticking to the seasonal trend of early recurves so no worries with this one.The E MDR AOI is now Invest 95L:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
1. Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this week as the system moves quickly across the
central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward
Islands by the latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Looks good on satellite and should make a new named storm. Sticking to the seasonal trend of early recurves so no worries with this one.
CAG looks like it wants to crank.Northern stream gets cranking on the 06z gfs. Nothing threatening in the long range but it would be time to watch the GOM for any development as it would most likely get yanked north quickly into the parade of troughs
Not sure what to make of this...hybrid/sub tropical/noreaster....hangs out for awhile not optimal a week before deer season opens...the mosquito hatch will be epic given how dry it is.
View attachment 175380
Lol not sure what the NHC is waiting forView attachment 175385
That’s what a hurricane should look like.Woof
IR Satellite Loop for Typhoon HALONG | Tropical Tidbits https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=28W&product=ir
Invest 96L up near 45N NW of the Azores
is almost certainly going to get named (whether subtropical or tropical) imho based on this special TWO and Papin being in the house! 8PM TWO % will likely rise substantially from this:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Special outlook issued to update information about the gale-force
low located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores.
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located just southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
1. North Atlantic (AL96):
Updated: Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized
today in association with a gale-force area of low pressure located
several hundred miles to the northwest of the Azores. If these
development trends continue, a subtropical or tropical storm could
form as soon as tonight while the system moves slowly northwestward.
Over the weekend, the system is expected to move over even cooler
waters, ending its chances of further development. For more
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
Forecaster Papin/Roberts
Please become Karen so it goes away quickly![]()
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Interesting that a named storm could (potentially) form that far north, while the SE coast nor'easter this weekend likely won't qualify.Folks,
As weird as this season has been, it may get weirder!
A look just now at historical genesis locations on record tells me that Invest 96L, already way up near 44.5N, could easily become the furthest N genesis for either a TC or STC as the furthest N on record is 42N (unnamed storm in 1952)! And it figures this would be named Karen, which almost certainly means she’ll be back in 2031, consistent with her plan to get named that far N:
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1952 Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
And we have Karen
It'll be gone before the weekend![]()
Karen: can I speak to your landmassAnd we have Karen
It'll be gone before the weekend![]()
Karen: can I speak to your landmass
She literally had her fifteen minutes of fame becoming a tropical storm at that latitude.Karen is no more.![]()
Despite me now having fun with the Karen silliness because it really is ridiculously silly, I fully see Mike’s point. When I first started hearing about using the name “Karen” as an insult, a part of me immediately actually disliked it partially because I had known several Karens and they were fine people. But since then I lightened up about it and figured many people named Karen probably laugh along with the silliness.
Brent, if your name started to be used in a similar silly way, would you just laugh along with it? I’m guessing you’d think it was hilarious. In my case, I would laugh.
JB isn’t happy:
Laughable NHC Antics
The naming of Karen in the North Atlantic as a subtropical storm is laughable to me, but it has now become a talking point for people pushing missives about climate change. This despite a season that has fallen short of the means of the last 5 seasons, and one of them with a strong el Niño.
It underscores what I have been trying to push for close to 2 decades. If you want to name these systems that develop a warmer core within the realm of a colder environment, then you need a 2 tier season. That you would have something like this, which has a nice structure but is a warmer feature within the colder environment and over water temps that are 2-4C °C degrees below the threshold of 26C we use for storms, is a joke to me.
In the meantime, look at this on Sept 16 from a storm that developed over the Gulf Stream did this to SE Va, along with causing the collapse of houses into the ocean on the Outer Banks
It was totally ignored by the National Hurricane Center. This has been going on since I can remember. I will watch storms get named in the middle of nowhere (we call them ham sandwiches at weatherbell.com), where no one can actually see what they do, but then we see features like this, which are enough to feed back and convert rapidly to at least subtropical systems and hit people, and no one says boo.
But a massive overhaul has to be done at the NHC. There is too much subjectivity and that shackles people relying on their expertise, which, btw is considerable, on these matters.
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Any thoughts?
He's probably just unhappy the season has been boring from a landfall standpoint![]()
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