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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

Shaggy said:
Yeah if you're looking for any threats you are gonna have to see something homegrown. Models paint a lot of bagginess off the SE coast with several attempts some lows that never really get going
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Yup I stand by what I've been saying. The odds of something making it from Africa and hitting are slim to none

We gotta wake up the Caribbean or the Gulf
 
Whoever is in charge of AccuWeather tropical weather forecasting needs to be fired. Despite the NHC (the main reputable weather source) saying that Invest 91L is not going to develop into a tropical cyclone. Accuweather is LITERALLY posting clickbait images showing a AccuWeather made forecast saying that this will become a hurricane.
 
AccuWeather does ride the hype train when it comes to tropical weather, severe weather events and winter weather forecasting. They are doing this to keep viewers interested but it has become a case of the boy crying wolf for me and other people I know. AccuWeather is not the first source I go to when I am looking for accurate weather forecasting.
 
The 18Z GEFS is the most active run yet in the W Car/Gulf 9/12-end of the run! If I were living on the Gulf coast, I’d be a bit concerned. This has strong support from the MJO, which is already favorable and is forecasted to remain that way for most, if not all, of the rest of Sept.

IMG_4559.pngIMG_4560.pngIMG_4561.png
 
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Yeah, I was coming here to say speaking of a CAG based storm...it looks like the GEFS is excited about it, but after the model bust with 91L, I'd like to see something come out before we start talking about a potential storm.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Yeah, I was coming here to say speaking of a CAG based storm...it looks like the GEFS is excited about it, but after the model bust with 91L, I'd like to see something come out before we start talking about a potential storm.
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GG,
That’s fully warranted. Also, GFS/GEFS often has false CAG alarms. But OTOH, it’s a bit early for the late season GFS/GEFS W Car bias, the Euro/CMC ens have some activity, this was the most active GEFS yet, the MJO is quite supportive, the W Car/Gulf are untouched/boiling, and it’s already a weak La Niña at least per RONI. Also, many times when the rest of the basin is quiet near peak, the far W basin gets active. So this area and period is a major bear watch for me as of now.
 
Then of course is the tropical cyclone season, running at a below normal pace with one major storm (Erin) that had few impacts to speak of. The parceled Saharan Air Layer has not been as strong or as complete as last summer, but has managed to destroy many of the impressive ITCZ waves coming out of central Africa.Given the abundance of warm water in the Atlantic Basin, and the lack of shearing profiles aloft below 40 N Latitude (remember that the earlier advance of the upper westerlies in the Pacific Ocean has receded), I think we are far from done with the 2025 hurricane season. The peak day of September 9 through the secondary rise in storm number of October 5 should see an uptick in the amount of waves, depressions and named storms. It might mean that I need to walk down my earlier totals (22 named, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major cyclones), but the expected elimination of the Saharan Air Layer and strengthening of the Bermuda High will likely give new life to North American and island storm threats.

Most of the forecast guidance (analog and numerical model) points toward some hotter weather on both coasts over the next six weeks. But the importance of transient high-latitude ridging (see the Northwest Territories and Nunavut AR positive 500MB height anomaly) suggests that another polar air breakthrough will occur from the Prairie Provinces and Ontario into the Midwest and Northeast in Week 3.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, September 6, 2025 at 11:10 P.M. CT​
 
GFS is pretty consistent with something in the gulf in the Day 10-12 range. Don’t see much support from the ensembles or anything else yet
 
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 13.9N 32.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2025 156 15.0N 33.7W 1012 27
1200UTC 15.09.2025 168 15.1N 37.9W 1010 33

IMG_4579.png
 
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GaWx said:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 13.9N 32.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2025 156 15.0N 33.7W 1012 27
1200UTC 15.09.2025 168 15.1N 37.9W 1010 33

View attachment 174844
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Followup: Although the 0Z UKMET dropped this in the middle of the MDR, today’s 12Z brings it right back in a similar position with similar timing also moving mainly WNW. This run gets to a low end TS just after 156 hours:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 13.2N 33.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2025 132 13.2N 33.4W 1010 27
1200UTC 15.09.2025 144 14.5N 36.3W 1009 29
0000UTC 16.09.2025 156 15.2N 38.9W 1008 33
1200UTC 16.09.2025 168 16.4N 42.0W 1006 38
 
0Z 9/10/25 UKMET: TS moving WNW in middle of MDR likely destined to later recurve safely from at least the US

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 11.5N 29.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2025 108 11.5N 29.5W 1010 28
0000UTC 15.09.2025 120 12.0N 33.3W 1009 28
1200UTC 15.09.2025 132 12.8N 36.4W 1008 28
0000UTC 16.09.2025 144 13.6N 39.0W 1007 28
1200UTC 16.09.2025 156 14.5N 41.5W 1005 36
0000UTC 17.09.2025 168 15.3N 43.4W 1005 42
 
GaWx said:
0Z 9/10/25 UKMET: TS moving WNW in middle of MDR likely destined to later recurve safely from at least the US

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 11.5N 29.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2025 108 11.5N 29.5W 1010 28
0000UTC 15.09.2025 120 12.0N 33.3W 1009 28
1200UTC 15.09.2025 132 12.8N 36.4W 1008 28
0000UTC 16.09.2025 144 13.6N 39.0W 1007 28
1200UTC 16.09.2025 156 14.5N 41.5W 1005 36
0000UTC 17.09.2025 168 15.3N 43.4W 1005 42
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Followup:
Like the 0Z run had, the 12Z UKMET continues with the MDR TS, very likely headed for a recurve in the middle of the ocean:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.3N 34.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2025 120 14.2N 35.3W 1008 28
0000UTC 16.09.2025 132 15.1N 38.9W 1007 30
1200UTC 16.09.2025 144 16.7N 41.0W 1006 36
0000UTC 17.09.2025 156 17.7N 42.9W 1005 41
1200UTC 17.09.2025 168 19.2N 45.2W 1003 44
 
The last 2 Euro Weeklies runs, though not getting to very active levels at least as of yet, have suggested 9/22-28 to be the most active week ACEwise of the upcoming weeks with 9/29-10/4 being the 2nd most active.
 
Another UKMET run (0Z) with an MDR TS headed for an early recurve:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.2N 26.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2025 72 11.7N 26.9W 1009 28
1200UTC 14.09.2025 84 13.1N 30.4W 1008 30
0000UTC 15.09.2025 96 13.2N 32.8W 1007 30
1200UTC 15.09.2025 108 14.4N 35.6W 1006 31
0000UTC 16.09.2025 120 15.7N 37.7W 1005 35
1200UTC 16.09.2025 132 16.8N 39.8W 1004 41
0000UTC 17.09.2025 144 18.8N 40.8W 1003 45
1200UTC 17.09.2025 156 19.9N 42.2W 1002 44
0000UTC 18.09.2025 168 21.1N 43.3W 1002 46
 
GaWx said:
Another UKMET run (0Z) with an MDR TS headed for an early recurve:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.2N 26.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2025 72 11.7N 26.9W 1009 28
1200UTC 14.09.2025 84 13.1N 30.4W 1008 30
0000UTC 15.09.2025 96 13.2N 32.8W 1007 30
1200UTC 15.09.2025 108 14.4N 35.6W 1006 31
0000UTC 16.09.2025 120 15.7N 37.7W 1005 35
1200UTC 16.09.2025 132 16.8N 39.8W 1004 41
0000UTC 17.09.2025 144 18.8N 40.8W 1003 45
1200UTC 17.09.2025 156 19.9N 42.2W 1002 44
0000UTC 18.09.2025 168 21.1N 43.3W 1002 46
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Followup: 12Z UKMET: another run with MDR TS (this one moving WNW)

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.7N 32.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2025 84 12.7N 32.7W 1010 27
1200UTC 15.09.2025 96 13.7N 35.4W 1008 29
0000UTC 16.09.2025 108 13.9N 37.7W 1006 28
1200UTC 16.09.2025 120 15.2N 39.8W 1005 38
0000UTC 17.09.2025 132 17.1N 41.3W 1004 40
1200UTC 17.09.2025 144 18.6N 43.3W 1003 42
0000UTC 18.09.2025 156 20.4N 44.8W 1003 45
1200UTC 18.09.2025 168 21.3N 46.7W 1003 41
 
Like they’ve been showing almost every day for over a week and although they don’t get to above the active avg ACE like they showed 2 weeks ago, the Euro Weeklies still end the below avg ACE starting with the week that begins Sept 22nd. It rises to near the 20 year active avg then and that lasts for the 3 weeks going through Oct 12th. It still has the most active week of the next 4 to be 9/22-28 (with ~13.5 ACE) and the 2nd most active being 9/29-10/5. It’s projecting ~40 ACE 9/15-10/12. That would bring total ACE up to ~80. That would keep season to date ACE well below the active era’s avg of ~103 as of then.
 
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0Z UKMET for E MDR lemon: again has a TS in the MDR moving mainly WNW though it turns W after 156:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.7N 36.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2025 96 14.2N 37.0W 1008 29
1200UTC 16.09.2025 108 15.8N 38.9W 1006 37
0000UTC 17.09.2025 120 17.0N 41.9W 1006 38
1200UTC 17.09.2025 132 17.6N 43.1W 1006 41
0000UTC 18.09.2025 144 18.7N 44.9W 1006 43
1200UTC 18.09.2025 156 20.0N 46.7W 1006 43
0000UTC 19.09.2025 168 19.9N 48.8W 1007 39
 
For the first time, the UK has a TC (actually a TS) behind the current lemon in the far E MDR moving WNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 11.9N 16.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2025 108 11.9N 16.7W 1008 35
0000UTC 17.09.2025 120 13.3N 19.7W 1008 29
1200UTC 17.09.2025 132 14.7N 23.2W 1008 28
0000UTC 18.09.2025 144 15.8N 26.7W 1009 32
1200UTC 18.09.2025 156 16.6N 29.8W 1010 27
0000UTC 19.09.2025 168
 
GaWx said:
0Z UKMET for E MDR lemon: again has a TS in the MDR moving mainly WNW though it turns W after 156:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.7N 36.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2025 96 14.2N 37.0W 1008 29
1200UTC 16.09.2025 108 15.8N 38.9W 1006 37
0000UTC 17.09.2025 120 17.0N 41.9W 1006 38
1200UTC 17.09.2025 132 17.6N 43.1W 1006 41
0000UTC 18.09.2025 144 18.7N 44.9W 1006 43
1200UTC 18.09.2025 156 20.0N 46.7W 1006 43
0000UTC 19.09.2025 168 19.9N 48.8W 1007 39
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UKMET (12Z) again has this as a TS in the MDR. It develops it 18 hours later. Unlike last run, this one has it already recurving out of the MDR way out in the middle of nowhere:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 18.5N 45.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2025 120 18.5N 45.0W 1006 39
0000UTC 18.09.2025 132 19.9N 46.2W 1006 39
1200UTC 18.09.2025 144 22.6N 48.3W 1006 43
0000UTC 19.09.2025 156 24.3N 50.8W 1006 36
1200UTC 19.09.2025 168 25.2N 52.2W 1005 41

————-
Also, this run doesn’t have the 2nd TC that the prior run had.
 
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