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Pattern April Showers

I'm ready for sunny and 75. Kids are starting to play flag football and soccer this weekend. Not much fun making up a lot of games because of rain or playing when it's cold out.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I'm ready for sunny and 75. Kids are starting to play flag football and soccer this weekend. Not much fun making up a lot of games because of rain or playing when it's cold out.
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Yeah I'm tired of this up and down sharply weather plus all these cloudy days. I don't want any more cold until later this year. It's time to warm up and it looks like it is going to this week, but we will be back down in a week.
 
It looks like the ups and downs will continue for awhile longer, which is perfectly fine with me. Changes in wx make it more interesting and having cool spells interspersed with warmth is good to see from my perspective. For the folks who don't like the changes, don't worry as you'll get your months on end of nearly continuous heat and humidity soon enough. That kind of wx is rather boring to me and is also uncomfortable but we always get it.
 
Despite sincere disdain for IMBY posts, this one (perhaps) seems worth sharing ... all day training and it beats the heck out of last spring in any event ...

Screen Shot 2018-04-09 at 5.20.08 PM.png
~~~~~~~
Edit:
531 PM EDT MON APR 9 2018
Gilchrist FL-Alachua FL-
531 PM EDT MON APR 9 2018
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a
* Flood Advisory for...
Southern Gilchrist County in northern Florida...
Central Alachua County in northern Florida...
* Until 830 PM EDT.
* At 525 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to a
training line of heavy thunderstorms. This will cause minor
flooding in the advisory area. One to two inches of rain have
fallen in a swath oriented from west to east generally between the
cities of Alachua and Gainesville in the past hour. On and off
periods of heavy rain will continue for at least the next several
hours.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Gainesville, Trenton, Bell, Alachua, High Springs, Orange Heights,
Gainesville Airport, Newberry, Waldo and La Crosse.
•Additional rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected over this area
through 830 pm. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
 
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brrrr.. i dig it:
gfs_T850_us_27.png
 
pcbjr said:
Despite sincere disdain for IMBY posts, this one (perhaps) seems worth sharing ... all day training and it beats the heck out of last spring in any event ...

View attachment 5026
~~~~~~~
Edit:
531 PM EDT MON APR 9 2018
Gilchrist FL-Alachua FL-
531 PM EDT MON APR 9 2018
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a
* Flood Advisory for...
Southern Gilchrist County in northern Florida...
Central Alachua County in northern Florida...
* Until 830 PM EDT.
* At 525 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to a
training line of heavy thunderstorms. This will cause minor
flooding in the advisory area. One to two inches of rain have
fallen in a swath oriented from west to east generally between the
cities of Alachua and Gainesville in the past hour. On and off
periods of heavy rain will continue for at least the next several
hours.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Gainesville, Trenton, Bell, Alachua, High Springs, Orange Heights,
Gainesville Airport, Newberry, Waldo and La Crosse.
•Additional rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected over this area
through 830 pm. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
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Phil, if you see anyone building a very large boat, get in line. It appears you all are under the gun again with a lot of rain. Too bad it could not be spread out over days and weeks when you really need it. Stay safe. Hope the flooding is not causing you any issues. Best, Mike.
 
MRStorm said:
Phil, if you see anyone building a very large boat, get in line. It appears you all are under the gun again with a lot of rain. Too bad it could not be spread out over days and weeks when you really need it. Stay safe. Hope the flooding is not causing you any issues. Best, Mike.
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Perhaps the nicest post I've ever received; thanks!
Best!
Phil

Edit:
Based on NWS reports since midnight - 5.88" and it's still coming down ... :eek:

Corrected @ 6:00 PM:
5.76 based on updated info ... still quite a lot ...
 
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This won't go over well... This weekend into Monday looks very interesting for severe on most of the forum even if it's just primarily a damaging wind threat.
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It's telling when the global models look very convective already even here in NC.

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Webberweather53 said:
This won't go over well... This weekend into Monday looks very interesting for severe on most of the forum even if it's just primarily a damaging wind threat.
View attachment 5029


It's telling when the global models look very convective already even here in NC.

View attachment 5031


View attachment 5030
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Great post, Webb!
You know my disdain for severe, but if it happens, at least we have a heads up.
Looks like a pretty sharp temp change is possible Sunday, and FWIW, that's a best guess from your Curmudgeon of a time-frame to consider hunkering down. :(
Best!
Phil
 
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAX/1804102126.sxus72.html

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
515 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2018

...ALL-TIME 24 HOUR RAINFALL RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL SET AT
GAINESVILLE (GNV) FLORIDA...

A RECORD 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 5.67 INCHES FELL AT GAINESVILLE
FROM 3:45 PM EDT MONDAY APRIL 9TH THROUGH 3:45 PM EDT TUESDAY APRIL
10TH. THIS WAS THE MOST EVER RECORDED FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 4.90 INCHES SET ON APRIL 3RD 1944.
 
You want to hear a really crazy wx stat? The last two days' highs here (58/56) were the two coldest highs in over two months (since 2/3/18)!! Today's high of 56 is 20 colder than normal and is 4 colder than the early to mid January normal high!

The laat 3 days have had a high of 61 or lower. The last time that happened was way back in mid January!
 
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To add to Webber post, saw our local TV met last night discussing how Sunday has his attn. He showed a wind chart (not sure of which model) throughout the atmosphere ,5000-30,000 feet and at 6pm Sunday the Wind Shear was at 106mph.
 
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Starting to watch the system around the 18th. A farther south track and more moisture and that one would be nasty.
 
At KSAV, April 1-10 has been nearly 2 F cooler than Feb and nearly 6 F cooler than 2/10-28! This is similar to what the bulk of the SE US has experienced.
 
Saw an article of metropolitan areas that have taken a direct hit from a tornado.
For NC
Greensboro F4
Raleigh F3
Fayetteville F3.

All occurred in month of April in NC. Might have missed 1 or 2. Surprised at F4 Greensboro, was in the early 30s. Think I saw ST Louis 4 times . These date back to late 1800s.
 
heh, the ICON is off its rocker, but still manages to snowhole Hamilton Co.
icon_asnow_seus_47.png
 
SE GA/SE SC now have the worst drought of any place in the E 1/2 of the US with its D2. I've been watering my lawn a lot over the last 10 days, the most in a couple of years. in addition to MBY, this area covers Stormsfury and other CHS, SC, area members as well as folks like Weatherdawg who are near Valdosta, GA.

Edit: We definitely need a lot of rain and that is no BS. KSAV has had only 4.33" of rain in 2018 to date vs the normal of 11.41"! But at least the dry ground is helping to keep dewpoints down and thus making it more comfy for outdoors.
 
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probably the last time you'll see this for 6-8 months, Omega block look... Looks like Spring tries to come in more than 1-3 days at time in late April.
gfs-ens_z500a_us_18.png
 
Not that it does a Curmudgeon a lick of good, but the statistical probability as of today today to the end of the month is, in a word, insane ...

814temp.new.gif
 
if you like cool weather in Florida, I suppose you gotta embrace such things...
 
Gardeners in Kentucky are having fits and convulsions... strange life when you're dependent on latitudes..
 
We hit 79 so far today... still not as warm as late Feb when we hit 80+ for three consecutive days.. nuts sir.
 
Even though we need rain here, it was another very pleasant low RH day today. Ignoring the needing rain part, if it could only stay like this for the next 5 months! Going to walk again in this fantastic wx.
 
GaWx said:
SE GA/SE SC now have the worst drought of any place in the E 1/2 of the US with its D2. I've been watering my lawn a lot over the last 10 days, the most in a couple of years. in addition to MBY, this area covers Stormsfury and other CHS, SC, area members as well as folks like Weatherdawg who are near Valdosta, GA.

Edit: We definitely need a lot of rain and that is no BS. KSAV has had only 4.33" of rain in 2018 to date vs the normal of 11.41"! But at least the dry ground is helping to keep dewpoints down and thus making it more comfy for outdoors.
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Hopefully you guys can cash in Sunday evening. No weather is worse than drought. Heat is second. Usually they come hand n hand unfortunately.
 
Webberweather53 said:
As nice as this winter was I keep finding myself reverting back to 1935-36 in terms of a benchmark winter in the last century and a half or so. I'll eventually show you guys a detailed snow/sleet accumulation map because the totals statewide over NC were mind boggling. Literally nobody was spared and every station besides one at the southernmost tip of NC south of Wilmington and near Hatteras was in double figures for snowfall. Not only was there a lot of snow, we were cold every single month of the winter wall-to-wall December-February and it ended up being the 3rd coldest winter on record here in NC for DJF. We had every kind of snowfall distribution known to man so everyone was likely genuinely happy at some point and some way, shape, or form and this was also largely true outside of NC for virtually the entire board, at least one sizable winter storm (or more) showed up on your doorstep in 1935-36. It snowed in some parts of central NC in every single month from November to April! Furthermore, we had both a white Christmas and a white New Years here, what more could a snow weenie possibly ask for and how could you top a winter like that?

The snowfall amounts in NC put even great winters like 1898-99 to shame. Just imagine these areas in the pink over east-central NC w/ 2+ feet of snow (which is very large in its own right) and put that over the entire state and you get an idea of what the winter of 1935-36 did to us.
View attachment 5003
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As a follow up to this post here's the 1935-36 seasonal map, I wasn't kidding around, this winter was bat s*** crazy. There weren't any crazy large gradients in seasonal totals we often see big dog winters, you could travel on the US-70 corridor from Raleigh all the way down to Morehead City and your totals wouldn't fall off much at all. If you were in central NC in 1935-36 you could pretty much take it to the bank that you had at least 20" of snow that winter, nobody was spared.

Winter of 1935-36 NC Snowmap.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
As a follow up to this post here's the 1935-36 seasonal map, I wasn't kidding around, this winter was bat s*** crazy. There weren't any crazy large gradients in seasonal totals we often see big dog winters, you could travel on the US-70 corridor from Raleigh all the way down to Morehead City and your totals wouldn't fall off much at all. If you were in central NC in 1935-36 you could pretty much take it to the bank that you had at least 20" of snow that winter, nobody was spared.

View attachment 5041
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Thanks for the info Eric. Do you think that it's possible that we will see this type of snowfall again in the next couple of decades due to the AMO leaving the warm phase and the period of low solar activity coming up? I read that if the AMO enters the cold phase it should result in the -AO getting stonger overall which theoretically would help our area with snowfall. Any thoughts on this?
 
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