• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 26-27

jeremyt said:
Of course you do! Care to explain scientifically?
Click to expand...

His response…,
giphy.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaStorm said:
I bet he doesn't agree with Brad. The early PV hit will repeat into winter and create plenty of chances for snow.
Click to expand...
Brad is a wait until it has fallen to say anything, I get it, he has been burned. Good years go blank and bad years you get 9”. I’ll wait until March to have an opinion!
 
57a2afba4e9537646e522c5d44799102.jpg

Comparing previous strong El Niño winter teleconnection indices to the SEAS5 Nov run: the EPO is positive for both as well as the PNA (although slightly stronger PNA on the Nov run than previous). The differences lie in the NAO/AO which the Nov mean has both in the slightly negative category whereas the previous Ninos were positive.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
CFS 3 day/12 run means for Feb have gone back to quite a cold Feb especially S Plains to deep SE with @Brent having the coldest anom on the entire globe with ~8F below, which would be TUL’s 3rd coldest since 1980 and 16.5F colder than the very warm 2026’s thanks to a strong +PNA and W based -NAO:
IMG_3422.png
 
Last edited:
tennessee storm said:
Don’t see how much cold air coming down when Canada 🇨🇦 going be warm lol. But said all along February will be coldest month of winter
Click to expand...

-The strongest Can warmth is in E Canada and is near record warmth, which is consistent with near record strong W based -NAO blocking. I’d prefer in order to get the coldest in the SE for the center of the block to be a little further E to near Can E coast, but for the SE this strong blocking still produces a cold pattern and for the S Plains it is a very cold pattern

-With the strong +PNA, any Canadian highs would be coming from W Canada, which is only modestly AN and which when steered down into the S US by a +PNA is cold
 
Raleighwxauthority said:
First Call Snowfall Totals for Next Weekend:
  • Charlotte- Trace-1"
  • Raleigh- 1-2"
  • Greensboro- 2-4"
  • Boone- 4-8"
  • Westward Facing Slopes- 18-24"
  • Wilmington- Rain/sleet mix, glaze of ice possible
  • Mount Airy- 5-10"

Stay tuned for more updates!
Click to expand...
April fools day has already happened brother.
 
Let's break this down for you, nice and (hopefully) easy:

SSW+MJO+ENSO x SNOW+ICE

Sudden Stratospheric Warming (10MB Level showing impressive ridge and warm deviations)
Madden-Julian Oscillation stronger convective impulses near the Equator in Phases 6. 7. 8 or 1
El Nino Southern Oscillation imparting strong energy and moisture into a lower latitude than normal subtropical jet stream
SNOW and ICE accumulations above 50N Latitude from the USA over the North Pole through Siberia

You see the founding of a blocking ridge complex starting at the highest levels and working down to the 500MB and surface in Alaska, western and northern Canada, Greenland and Iceland.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation, if in the proper location, strength of signal and linked to two of the three extant jet streams (Arctic, Polar, Subtropical) will energize storms that will act to pull down any colder air across the high latitudes into the more populous areas of North America. The strong (don't call it Super...) El Nino with its very warm water in the equatorial Pacific Basin can juice extratropical storms just as much as it did hurricanes in summer and early fall). Besides bringing down cPk and cA air masses into the lower 48 states, disturbances farther north lay down snowpack and sea ice that acts to refrigerate the lower atmosphere under the clear, wind free night sky associated with those strong surface high pressure ridges aided by the warming aloft in the cryosphere in the northern half of the continent.

After the coastal low and front leave the Eastern Seaboard, probably another two such systems will be a colder/wetter influence in the Thanksgiving to December 14 time frame. We may see some hint of Arctic air, but again we have to build up the snow/ice coverage in Canada and the northernmost USA before we see any impressive cold. There will be temperature depressions occasionally in the Southwest from precipitation, but anyone living east of the Rocky Mountains is more likely to get a winter chill in the last week of November and the first third of next month. I think we will see some very warm breaks in December, and it may not be until the second half of January before the decaying El Nino and persistent blocking signatures (-EPO/-AO/-NAO) arise so that chances for heavy snow/ice and entrenched cold will take over. But the 11-15 and 16-20 day time frames may be a pleasant surprise for some who like real wintry conditions.







Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 5:35 P.M. CT​
 
Raleighwxauthority said:
First Call Snowfall Totals for Next Weekend:
  • Charlotte- Trace-1"
  • Raleigh- 1-2"
  • Greensboro- 2-4"
  • Boone- 4-8"
  • Westward Facing Slopes- 18-24"some eaa
  • Wilmington- Rain/sleet mix, glaze of ice possible
  • Mount Airy- 5-10"

Stay tuned for more updates!
Click to expand...
You are going out on a short limb on a tall tree to be calling for accumulating snow at RDU next weekend. That being said, it would be nice to see snow on the ground in November. I've always wanted to see snow on my birthday which is exactly two weeks from today. I'm 62 and have never seen that. Stranger things have happened before. Good luck!
 
weather bubba said:
You are going out on a short limb on a tall tree to be calling for accumulating snow at RDU next weekend. That being said, it would be nice to see snow on the ground in November. I've always wanted to see snow on my birthday which is exactly two weeks from today. I'm 62 and have never seen that. Stranger things have happened before. Good luck!
Click to expand...
He does this all the time, not sure if trolling, being funny, fake account or just the antithesis of Tennessee storm
 
Is this a good look? Asking for 🧱 IMG_6986.jpeg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top