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Wintry Winter 26-27

Good ol Pamela Anderson pattern. Never fails during a El Niño. This is actually a good look if it didn’t proceed a torch. Usually a look like this you’d want after a cold shot. Nice split flow, western Canada ridge spike/-NAO/-AO, and developing confluence around SE Canada. but no cold air to speak of. This after a period of -EPO = 💵IMG_6595.png
 
The +PNA prog looks very impressive today on at least the GEFS for at least the 3rd day in a row:
IMG_3204.png

What other Nino first half of Novs had a mainly +PNA that was pretty high?

2014, 2002, 1997, 1987, 1976, 1968, and 1953 but with only 1997 being strong+.
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Looking at only Ninos of +1.4+ (per RONI), there have been 10 others since 1950, but as mentioned only one (1997) had a +PNA dominant first half of Nov like GEFS says 2026 is going to have. GEFS is suggesting ~+1.0 PNA (after adjusting downward for bias) for 11/1-15/2026. How does this compare to the other 10 actual 11/1-15?

2023: -0.1

2015: -0.2

2009: -0.3

1997: +1.2

1991: +0.1

1986: -0.9

1982: -0.3

1972: +0.1

1965: -0.5

1957: 0.0

I wonder if this strong early Nov +PNA in 2026 is largely due to how E based it is being that 1997 was also very E based early.

 
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