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Tropical 2026 Tropics Thread 🌀

NCSNOW said:
6Z GFS joins the Canadian. The 0z ICOn and Euro/ukmet all stayed well off east coast. See if they swing back closer mid day runs. 6Z GFS actually goes west with the weak low from north cuba back into GOA. The run is still going, so who knws where she shakes out at. Anyway something to watch this week. You can get crazy things to happen mid-late October with spin ups.
Click to expand...
GEFS is almost entirely east and away from the gom and more centered towards the Bahamas

Screenshot_20261019_080355_Chrome.jpg
 
0Z UKMET nearly has a hurricane:

TROPICAL STORM 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 35.0N 70.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.10.2026 0 35.0N 70.7W 1004 37
1200UTC 20.10.2026 12 35.2N 70.5W 998 40
0000UTC 21.10.2026 24 35.5N 69.8W 998 45
1200UTC 21.10.2026 36 36.2N 69.5W 995 40
0000UTC 22.10.2026 48 36.9N 69.7W 989 51
1200UTC 22.10.2026 60 38.1N 68.1W 982 52
0000UTC 23.10.2026 72 39.4N 63.9W 975 63
1200UTC 23.10.2026 84 42.8N 56.7W 975 57
0000UTC 24.10.2026 96 45.9N 51.6W 986 54
1200UTC 24.10.2026 108 46.7N 48.5W 992 45
0000UTC 25.10.2026 120 48.0N 42.4W 991 45
1200UTC 25.10.2026 132 54.1N 32.9W 980 40
0000UTC 26.10.2026 144 CEASED TRACKING
 
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
340 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Special Outlook issued to raise formation probabilities for AL93

Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93):
Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better
organized in association with a storm-force low pressure area
located a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic United States
coast. The system has continued to acquire subtropical
characteristics today and has become separated from fronts. If
these trends continue, a subtropical storm could form later this
afternoon or tonight while it accelerates northeastward.

Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal
flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S.
East Coast during the next few days. For more information, including
hurricane-force extratropical wind warnings, please consult
statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices
and the Weather Prediction Center, along with the High Seas
Forecasts and the Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Evidently, this was declared STS Josephine just a few minutes ago.

————————————

12Z UKMET was still another having run it even though the text technically called it a TS ( I don’t think it is capable of distinguishing T from ST):

TROPICAL STORM 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 36.7N 69.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.10.2026 0 36.7N 69.0W 995 44
0000UTC 22.10.2026 12 37.5N 69.4W 991 47
1200UTC 22.10.2026 24 38.8N 68.4W 985 49
0000UTC 23.10.2026 36 39.9N 65.1W 984 66
1200UTC 23.10.2026 48 41.4N 59.5W 982 61
0000UTC 24.10.2026 60 43.0N 56.6W 986 51
1200UTC 24.10.2026 72 43.0N 54.8W 990 46
0000UTC 25.10.2026 84 42.8N 51.4W 994 41
1200UTC 25.10.2026 96 41.7N 45.7W 1004 38
0000UTC 26.10.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING
 
Last edited:
Subtropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026
500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026

...SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORMS...
...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 69.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES



Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026
500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026

The non-tropical area of low pressure (Invest AL93) that we have
been monitoring this week has acquired enough subtropical
characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm.
Scatterometer data showed that fronts near the cyclone had
dissipated, with a smaller radius-of-maximum wind than yesterday.
Additionally moderate-to-deep convection has been organizing near
and west of the warm-core center. Thus, advisories have been
initiated on a subtropical storm, and 55 kt is shown as the initial
intensity based on the scatterometer data.

Josephine has been moving slowly northward today as a shortwave
ridge passes across the northeastern United States. The storm
should accelerate northeastward tomorrow as a mid-latitude trough
digs into the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States, taking
the system away from the US. By Friday, the low should turn
eastward, to the south of Newfoundland. Model guidance is in good
agreement on this path, and the new forecast is close to a blend of
the global model consensus and the NOAA corrected-consensus aid
HCCA.

The subtropical storm will likely intensify during the next day or
so through a favorable trough interaction while it remains near the
north wall of the Gulf Stream. Global models are in good agreement
on a band of hurricane-force winds developing tomorrow on the back
side of the low as it undergoes extratropical transition. A slow
weakening is anticipated by late Friday with the loss of forcing
from the trough while the system moves over cold water. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the GFS/ECMWF global
model solutions. The cyclone should become absorbed in about 4
days within a much larger low over the North Atlantic.

Since the coastal wind hazards with this system have been covered
for the last several days through non-tropical products issued by
local National Weather Service offices, and the system is forecast
to move away from the coast, those products will remain in effect
until the threat diminishes.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 37.4N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
12H 22/0600Z 38.1N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
24H 22/1800Z 39.6N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0600Z 41.4N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1800Z 43.3N 56.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/0600Z 44.1N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z 44.4N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1800Z 43.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
GaWx said:
Subtropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026
500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026

...SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORMS...
...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 69.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES



Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026
500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026

The non-tropical area of low pressure (Invest AL93) that we have
been monitoring this week has acquired enough subtropical
characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm.
Scatterometer data showed that fronts near the cyclone had
dissipated, with a smaller radius-of-maximum wind than yesterday.
Additionally moderate-to-deep convection has been organizing near
and west of the warm-core center. Thus, advisories have been
initiated on a subtropical storm, and 55 kt is shown as the initial
intensity based on the scatterometer data.

Josephine has been moving slowly northward today as a shortwave
ridge passes across the northeastern United States. The storm
should accelerate northeastward tomorrow as a mid-latitude trough
digs into the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States, taking
the system away from the US. By Friday, the low should turn
eastward, to the south of Newfoundland. Model guidance is in good
agreement on this path, and the new forecast is close to a blend of
the global model consensus and the NOAA corrected-consensus aid
HCCA.

The subtropical storm will likely intensify during the next day or
so through a favorable trough interaction while it remains near the
north wall of the Gulf Stream. Global models are in good agreement
on a band of hurricane-force winds developing tomorrow on the back
side of the low as it undergoes extratropical transition. A slow
weakening is anticipated by late Friday with the loss of forcing
from the trough while the system moves over cold water. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the GFS/ECMWF global
model solutions. The cyclone should become absorbed in about 4
days within a much larger low over the North Atlantic.

Since the coastal wind hazards with this system have been covered
for the last several days through non-tropical products issued by
local National Weather Service offices, and the system is forecast
to move away from the coast, those products will remain in effect
until the threat diminishes.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 37.4N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
12H 22/0600Z 38.1N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
24H 22/1800Z 39.6N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0600Z 41.4N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1800Z 43.3N 56.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/0600Z 44.1N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z 44.4N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1800Z 43.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Click to expand...
Interesting. If it's post-trop/extratropical but exceeds 74 mph, will they call it a hurricane? I mean it's a fish storm anyway, but figured I'd ask.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
I hear ya. What throws me off a bit is this graphic's got an H in it.

View attachment 199059

Err, technically 2 H's, but you know what I mean..
Click to expand...

Yeah I dunno it's a flaw in the system I think haha once it's post tropical its over for counting as something else

Subtropical storms are rare to begin with. They used to not even count
 
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