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Pattern NC Only Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Most likely, these stale dry airmasses heat very efficiently when you stack ridges on them (see SD loathing summer cold front passages). The only thing that could save is getting a decent return flow so morning status and fog then afternoon cu keeps us in the upper 80s. Overall though Wednesday through Saturday are just blah. I'd the over on rain chances and totals late next weekend though.Oh no no you don't. It's gonna be 90 something isn't it? Just let me enjoy ignorance in bliss man.
Clouds, wind and even some light rain drifting this way.... no radiational cooling tonight either. Bummer
Friday should be our last day crossing the 80 degree mark till next spring. Knock on wood. As of now it still looks like we should get some decent rain second half upcoming weekend.
Shaggy
Member
There is a pretty sizeable smoke plume from some kind of fire visible Inland from Wilmington on such a clear day I wonder who else can see it
probably a controlled Burn over on Green Swamp Road
Still very Green up top. They peak by mid October, hunch is it will be late this year.
How’s the rain chances looking this weekend across the Old North State? Heading to the coast near the NC/SC border Sat. I can read models/trends a bit, but not as well as most of you.
Sea breeze might get active Friday and saturday. Best chance of storms saturday is inland until after dark. Sunday oof
Things looking decent for some much needed rain this weekend and next week, but.....
Icon scares me but the setup is legit. The wedge front imo is the wildcard. If it gets forced way into SC I'm Saturday we probably end up with a widespread decent event if it gets stuck or moves back north a bit +++++++ totals likely
We have only managed to get up to 79 today. Partly to mostly cloudy is the culprit. Feels pretty good outside. I thought yesterday felt way warmer than today and was expecting the opposite. Might be that low DP indian summer feel with the low sun angle that does this during the afternoons/ who knows.
Anyway I hate to post this, but hot off the press: Ugh
Anyway I hate to post this, but hot off the press: Ugh
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=RAH&product=AFD&issuedby=RAH
There will be a open position at the NWS in Raleigh since the meteorologist who wrote this discussion is retiring after 36 years on the job. I haven't seen a forecaster sign off in a forecast discussion like that before. I wish her a happy retirement and offer my thanks for her service.
There will be a open position at the NWS in Raleigh since the meteorologist who wrote this discussion is retiring after 36 years on the job. I haven't seen a forecaster sign off in a forecast discussion like that before. I wish her a happy retirement and offer my thanks for her service.
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One of the best afd writers out there, sucks
Eps is about 1.25 mean for gso and 1.6 for mby so definitely some lean to the right but more interesting the op is one of the lowest over your way but highest for me. The eps was actually a small increase
It's Gail Hartfield...as SD says, she is one of the very best in the business. We were lucky to have her in our region. Thanks for posting this.
My original post has been changed. Thank you for bringing this to my attention.
Most of the EPS members are clustered and around 1 inch of rain with the weekend system but the majority of the outliers are on the high side of the mean. That wet period around the 12th is something to watch looks like it originates from some BOC/gulf activity
Not a lot going on with temps other than maybe the cooler green cluster late
Not a lot going on with temps other than maybe the cooler green cluster late
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We have spent past couple decades with a lot of stellar forecasters at Rah/NWS, been spoiled. However the pool that has been replacing them just cant swing it with the same quality/ accuracy. Maybe after they get some experience they can improve. But from a poster who use to work there and pop up in here occasionally, kind of got the impression the newbies rely to much solely on technology and just kind of lazily go along with it, instead of incorporating it as a tool and using it that way, along with time tested methodology.
My biggest letdown past year or so is when reading the AFD's you just don't get the substance out of them like we use to continuously. Turning into just a Bulletin header type deal.
Robot vs man model show down continues for the weekend
Tsappfrog20
Member
Heavy dense fog this morning in Youngsville into Raleigh
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Encouraging to see the models so far with the 6z euro and now the 12zs go back to the wetter side this weekend. Kind of sucks to see another pretty straight forward rain event get this muddy then again it's been hard to rain for over a year now so it's not surprising
ATL area as well. Wore a hoodie this morning and around 11am everything burned off and now it's sunny and
Shaggy
Member
still have a good amount of EPS members below the mean but the heavier cluster gained some members and ticked up.
If this happens, I aint gonna be a happy camper. Only two out there painting this picture. But its eye catching.
Euro
UKMET
Euro
UKMET
Ride the SR models
6z Nam
6z RDPS
6z Nam
6z RDPS
This couldn't be more perfect 
Shaggy
Member
You don't have to look around the Wilmington area too hard to start noticing tree death all over the place
Avalanche
Member
This is what we get for our weak Stratiform rain this summer
EPS with a small uptick in QPF, still looks like the wedge and how fast the trough passes are going to give the OPs fits on where the best axis of heavy rain sets up. Good to see the models backing off on the big wedge push Saturday, each time they are less aggressive with that rain totals increase. Living along or just north of the tmb will be the place to be for the heaviest rain, someone probably walks out of the weekend with their October average in the bucket while some are sitting with .0something.
Although not a huge fan of how quickly the NAM blast the wedge in here. Hopefully it is too quickWe're good
Most likely died from beetles, tree that size generally don't die from lack of rain. Trees around it are fine
Drought stress made susceptible to pests
Shaggy
Member
Must be a lot of beetles around