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Wintry Winter 26-27

H jj
trackersacker said:
View attachment 197956
Strong El Niño December’s are usually pretty hostile towards winter weather in the south, but you do have exceptions to the rule like the December 1982 event
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Been very hostile in November and December on strong ninos with severe weather especially parts south Midsouth .check the pastLate fall early winter events .midsouth had several tornado outbreaks . And this one going be a super Nino , could get interesting
 
GaWx said:
Here’s the preliminary winter outlook from pro met. Chris Martz:

here is my preliminary thinking. . . As y'all probably know by now because of the endless hysteria in the news cycle, we are in an El Niño, which is just the warm phase of the larger El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This year, the developing El Niño is unusually intense, and it is expected to officially be a “very strong” El Niño by early winter at the latest. This is marked by very warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The news media and the United Nations have spun this as some sort of crazy event that will “turbocharge” extreme weather all over the globe, but that's not really how it works. Now, normally in the tropical Pacific Ocean, easterly wind stress associated with the Walker Circulation imparted on the sea surface acts to pile warm water near the surface in the western half of the basin; that is, closer to Asia. This pushes the thermocline down towards the west as warm water pools up north of the Maritime Continent and east of the Philippines. But during El Niño, the easterlies weaken or temporarily reverse (westerly wind bursts), which causes that pool of warm water to slosh back east. That's what's happening right now.


There are a lot of meteorological factors to consider when it comes to predicting long-range temperatures, precipitation, and storm tracks. But this year, this “very strong” El Niño will play a dominant role I think as it has in years past (e.g., 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16). Those are my top post-1950 analogs, and I added 1972–73 into the mix as it behaved similarly to the others, although it was only a “strong” El Niño at peak intensity. 1827–28 and 1877–78 would have been good analogs too, but we don't have enough climate data from back then to work with.


A key feature of “very strong” El Niño events is that wintertime temperatures are particularly mild relative to average. This is pronounced in the Upper Plains / Midwest and Great Lakes / Northeast. Temperatures across the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region, however, typically run below average. The southeast can swing either way, but generally winds up near “average” (and I use scare quotes there because the weather is rarely “average”).


However, these exceptionally mild temperatures do not necessarily persist all winter. In fact, most of this composite is due to “blowtorch” Decembers. And I do expect December to end up 5–10°F above average in the areas you see orange and red contours in the first analog composite map I made below.But the roaring Pacific Jet typically relaxes from mid-January through mid-February, so temperatures will tumble a bit closer to “seasonable.” If this El Niño were weaker, there'd be a good chance of a frigid December in the east. But I doubt that's going to happen.


As far as precipitation goes, well, there should be an active subtropical jet stream. So, air parcels moving from west-to-east will tap into Gulf moisture and then be advected northward into the southeast. I expect a lot of rain in the Gulf Coast states (Texas to Florida) and then northward up the east coast into the DMV. Similarly, the western U.S. should expect some major drought relief due to atmospheric river events. After a near-record low snowpack last winter, the ski resorts will be back in business. Elsewhere, it will likely be a bit drier than normal due to persistent high-pressure ridging over the northern flank of the country. Storm tracks are going to favor the southern states.


With respect to snowfall, overall, I do expect less of it nationwide outside of high elevation areas simply due to higher-than-average temperatures. But I cannot rule out ONE crippling blizzard in the Mid-Atlantic or in the southeast. It happened in the southeast (Florida, Georgia, and Carolina coastline) in February 1973 and in the lower Mid-Atlantic (Virginia, D.C., Maryland, and southeastern Pennsylvania) in both February 1983 and January 2016. However, it did not happen in 1827–28 or 1877–78 (I checked NOAA NCEI FORT data) or in 1997–98.

So, whether or not we get the “big one” remains up in the air for now. But it will be that one storm that will ultimately determine where the seasonal snowfall will stand (above / below climatology) in the southeast and Mid-Atlantic. If it occurs, many folks will get their seasonal spoonful of snow in one dumping. If it does not occur, it's just going to be a wet winter.

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Again, everyone seems to keep missing January '98. It was one of the bigger snowstorms that I remember here.

www.cbsnews.com

Snow Storm Dumps On Appalachians

www.cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com
 
Biggest thorn in our side this winter is going to be an Omega Block anchoring down over Canada. This is my biggest fear and you can already see it trying to set up shop looking at model loops on the continental view tab out through the end of there runs.
 
NCSNOW said:
Biggest thorn in our side this winter is going to be an Omega Block anchoring down over Canada. This is my biggest fear and you can already see it trying to set up shop looking at model loops on the continental view tab out through the end of there runs.
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Would that feature cause a stubborn SE ridge during winter ?
 
tennessee storm said:
Would that feature cause a stubborn SE ridge during winter ?
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Not really. It's position will block cold air transport if its sqaured up over central canada. Now if it squares itself up westward, it could open the artic door. Envision a big west coast ridge spike up the west coast of canada and funneling cold air down through the lakes/ east coast. Few years back we had an omega block that was so fat like first image below, it covered all of canada and sealed our fate.

Heres a pic for reference.

BAD


1789046584079.png

Heres what we would like to see

Good


1789046780000.png
 
tennessee storm said:
Would that feature cause a stubborn SE ridge during winter ?
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Typically our problem with El Niño, especially the last few, isn’t the SER because the STJ does help to mute it some. The big problem has been the continent getting flooded with Pacific air.
 
NCSNOW said:
Not really. It's position will block cold air transport if its sqaured up over central canada. Now if it squares itself up westward, it could open the artic door. Envision a big west coast ridge spike up the west coast of canada and funneling cold air down through the lakes/ east coast. Few years back we had an omega block that was so fat like first image below, it covered all of canada and sealed our fate.

Heres a pic for reference.

BAD


View attachment 197980

Heres what we would like to see

Good


View attachment 197981
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That looks terrible. Wavelengths won't be that short in the winter. A ridge over the central US means get the umbrella drinks ready in the SE.
 
SD said:
IMO December is the least straight forward month of the winter and easily has the biggest bust potential. Not a lot of signal that the month hangs around average it's either very warm or decently BN. Give me -5-+8 as the forecast.
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If Dec comes in BN, then look out. It's on like Donkey Kong!
 
Rain Cold said:
That looks terrible. Wavelengths won't be that short in the winter. A ridge over the central US means get the umbrella drinks ready in the SE.
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Yea i was looking for a pic to illustrate prefered ridge location if one pops up and anchors down on us. Only hope would be for it to be way west.

I hope im wrong, but betting farm right now one (omega block) is gonna show up and swallow up enough turf to cover most of Canada / us.
Most omega blocks are fat and screw the pooch. Not a cold snow lovers friend in the SE.
 
The PDO (currently neg.) is showing signs of shifting I understand.

What "Showing Signs of Shifting" Means

Right now, the Super El Niño developing at the equator is so powerful that it is completely rewriting the rules. El Niño dumps an incredible amount of heat into the atmosphere and ocean.
  • Overpowering the Cold: The immense heat from the equator is actively bleeding northward into the North Pacific.
  • The Model Projections: Recent satellite data and climate models show that the cool horseshoe pattern along the West Coast is beginning to erode. The waters are warming up, indicating a transition toward a Neutral or Positive PDO phase.
 
While I think we will have normal or below temps compared to the Climatological averages, it will likely be due to more cloudy rainy days holding the temps down (especially the further down in the SE you go) rather than a lot of cold air flooding the SE. That does not mean we can't score a good snowstorm for areas of the SE but I am afraid the more likely scenario is ice for those from the Upstate North and East except for the Mountains and middle and western Tennessee. Should it be warm in December (and I think it will be) but switch sharply around Christmas, that would put a whole different tone to my prediction
 
MichaelJ said:
While I think we will have normal or below temps compared to the Climatological averages, it will likely be due to more cloudy rainy days holding the temps down (especially the further down in the SE you go) rather than a lot of cold air flooding the SE. That does not mean we can't score a good snowstorm for areas of the SE but I am afraid the more likely scenario is ice for those from the Upstate North and East except for the Mountains and middle and western Tennessee. Should it be warm in December (and I think it will be) but switch sharply around Christmas, that would put a whole different tone to my prediction
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Not so sure it will be wetter than normal either, super el elnino s can go extreme type weather , actually below average precip even for the southeast . A lot watch for .
 
tennessee storm said:
Not so sure it will be wetter than normal either, super el elnino s can go extreme type weather , actually below average precip even for the southeast . A lot watch for .
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Just out of curiosity, have you found any examples of strong or super El Niño causing below average precipitation in the southeast? I’ve looked back and while it’s varied in amounts, it’s always produced above average precipitation in the examples I’ve found.
 
Chazwin said:
Just out of curiosity, have you found any examples of strong or super El Niño causing below average precipitation in the southeast? I’ve looked back and while it’s varied in amounts, it’s always produced above average precipitation in the examples I’ve found.
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I have read bout some situations dating so far back. Would t trust it . Interesting
 
All we need is AK to torch, then we cookin with gas!
 
Chazwin said:
Just out of curiosity, have you found any examples of strong or super El Niño causing below average precipitation in the southeast? I’ve looked back and while it’s varied in amounts, it’s always produced above average precipitation in the examples I’ve found.
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For us just 91-92. Most of the strong/supers average out to about an extra months worth of precip of you do djfm, so if you are still in drought this winter probably doesn't erase it by itself. One thing and strong/supers they are prone to a single dry month during the djfm period
 
SD said:
For us just 91-92. Most of the strong/supers average out to about an extra months worth of precip of you do djfm, so if you are still in drought this winter probably doesn't erase it by itself. One thing and strong/supers they are prone to a single dry month during the djfm period
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Hopefully that’s December in this case. Although long range looks like eastern areas stay wetter than my area the entire 4 month span.
 
256wx said:
Hopefully that’s December in this case. Although long range looks like eastern areas stay wetter than my area the entire 4 month span.
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December has rarely worked out in NC, can only remember 2 snowfalls in my life . 89 and 2010. I’m good with a warm early winter and cold in late January to February. That’s more par for the course!
 
jeremyt said:
December has rarely worked out in NC, can only remember 2 snowfalls in my life . 89 and 2010. I’m good with a warm early winter and cold in late January to February. That’s more par for the course!
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I guess you guys didn’t get in on the 2018 December storm


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
jeremyt said:
December has rarely worked out in NC, can only remember 2 snowfalls in my life . 89 and 2010. I’m good with a warm early winter and cold in late January to February. That’s more par for the course!
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A fairly mild to warm Dec and colder late winter would be par for the course based on W QBO El Niño analogs.
 
The "warmest summer" will be coming to a close. But gradually, with no drama.

We still are looking at perhaps another 7 to 8 days of warm/hot temperature averages around the lower 48 states, with an obvious concentration in the southern third of the nation and in the Great Plains. This has been the general idea for the national pattern in JJA, which will probably translate to the most heated JJAS quarter before autumn awakes and starts to return summer lovers to reality. Namely, that El Nino will assert itself in altering the 500MB longwave pattern. As in eliminating the persistent hybrid of the Sonoran Heat Ridge and the Bermuda High.

There are two possible features that will conspire to alter the upper air configuration. One will be tropical, either from the Mexican pacific shoreline or (more likely) from the Caribbean Sea/Gulf of Mexico. The strength of this feature is likely to be undecided for the next few days, but I am confident it will be involving western Cuba and Florida in the later medium range. The circulation and convective field should open up a weakness aloft, enabling the shortwave in the polar westerlies to descend/dig into the Mississippi Valley as we start the longer term period. That will crack the ridge, while another low emerges in the southern branch from California on southward. The tendency for blocking may enable a deeper storm in the Southwest, which is showing up as a cool deviation near the "Four Corners". The warmest values likely would shift into the Pacific Northwest, northern Intermountain Region and Great Plains.

Now about the El Nino. You can easily see that the episode has plateaued, and the CFS series has backed off from the absurdly high warmth projected in Sector 3.4 (from +4.0 deg C to closer to +3.0 deg C). More and more this hydrothermal array looks very close to what happened in 1997-98, but with the caveat that the signature will undergo rapid collapse starting in December. I would not get excited about some La Nina projections in Spring 2027 (way too early....), but a negative/neutral placement is certainly possible. October and November may have many neutral/cool outcomes in the USA, but the reality of all that warmth to start likely means a very mild December and much of January. But I need to repeat the idea that the numerical models are seeing something that would cause an end to the "warm rush" in a hurry. I am toying with the scenario of a deep Kona Low and frequent -EPO/-AO/-NAO ridging, which would mean a very mild northern 2/3 of the country with a neutral, stormy south running into a speed bump around and after Dr. King's Birthday in the New Year.

I will try to conceal my excitement for the weather in the coming months. And at the same time remind people that it is a "strong" and not necessarily a "Super" El Nino. You know how much I hate hype, right?





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 11:20 P.M. CT​
 
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