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Pattern Sweatember

GSP's Saturday thinking. It "might" be a big day.

Which brings us to Saturday. Seems like a lot of heat waves (if
that`s what you want to call the last several days) end with a
bang. The Day 3 Convective Outlook from the SPC shows a Slight Risk
across much of the fcst area, and that is certainly warranted. As
we come more under the cyclonic influence of the upper low over
the Canadian Maritimes, a cold front should drop down from the
northwest, possibly with ideal timing during peak heating. The 15Z
RAP looks compelling at 18Z Saturday, showing an environment with
upwards of 3500 J/kg of muCAPE and 20-30 kt of effective/deep
layer sheer to go along with an excellent trigger. Convection
moving past to the north may also leave behind an old outflow
or cloudy/clear boundary to be a focus for afternoon storms. The
event remains tantalizingly just outside the window of the CAMs, so
confidence is kept low, but we eagerly await later runs to provide
more clarity. Should be quiet after the front passes Saturday night.
 
NCSNOW said:
What if this el nino is so strong/ off charts. That it doesn't exactly behave like traditional el ninos and we end up with ridiculous dry wx instead of the usual STJ firehose? Maybe the firehose takes aim in another direction, not traditional sw-ne from Arizona to the Mid Atlantic.

On my mind as we should start seeing some evidence on these long range models late Sept into Oct. So far it’s all crickets with regard to the STJ. Now death ridge is another story. Constant.
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I was looking back at Septembers in strong El Niño and right now this is kinda playing out very similar to the fall of 1997. That year September and the first half of October was well above average and quite dry. KCLT had highs well into the 80s for the most part into mid October. Now once the STJ got going it really got going strong the second half of October
 
Chazwin said:
I was looking back at Septembers in strong El Niño and right now this is kinda playing out very similar to the fall of 1997. That year September and the first half of October was well above average and quite dry. KCLT had highs well into the 80s for the most part into mid October. Now once the STJ got going it really got going strong the second half of October
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Yep I've seen the same thing. Mainly hot September, probably a decent cool down near the 20th for a few days with a high precip event, hot first half of October, stj kicks in mid October, cool down and better precip chances. Interestingly the October pattern flip may coincide with a little bit of tropical activity
 
That seems to be the unanimous consensus here... No matter how and record setting September is the analogs are all super wet in October

And I do feel like the Pacific will get involved eventually. There's been hints of it here mid month already. Probably no hope from the Atlantic the way things are going(latest first hurricane in the satellite era is next week and there is nothing really showing up)
 
NCSNOW said:
This September is gonna have to end up as the warmest Sept on record if these models have half a clue:

Here's the latest GFS all the way out till Sept 18th. Look how far north the 100's are out in the plains. Never seen a more stubborn ridge anchor down and refuse to move for weeks on end.


View attachment 197862
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Thats just sickening!
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #654 IS IN EFFECT TILL 10PM TONIGHT
ww0654_radar.gif

mcd2233.png
 
Didn't expect a severe thunderstorm watch today.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
257 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN NORTH CAROLINA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 25 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

ALAMANCE CHATHAM DAVIDSON
DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH
FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GUILFORD
HALIFAX HARNETT JOHNSTON
LEE MONTGOMERY MOORE
NASH ORANGE PERSON
RANDOLPH STANLY VANCE
WAKE WARREN WAYNE
WILSON
 
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