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Pattern Sweatember

Iceagewhereartthou said:
Brent, man you have my full sympathy and merits. I just counted 23, 100 degree days since July 21st and you're not done yet. You definitely deserve some refreshing air over your way!
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It's really crazy when you go back and look back at it even before the last month.. I mean it was no secret last winter was warm here for most of it but I never realized that we've been above normal since at least last August outside of one week in January! Even January had record highs before the Arctic air that one weekend and then February and March were among the all time warmest

It's ironic because June and July didn't seem that bad but even they were above normal due to the unusually warm nights

It's been even worse west of here too. We actually had some rain and a brief break the other day

August is +9 in OKC right now. It's just insane. There are some areas even threatening 1980 and 2011 which are the modern benchmarks here
 
Brent said:
It's really crazy when you go back and look back at it even before the last month.. I mean it was no secret last winter was warm here for most of it but I never realized that we've been above normal since at least last August outside of one week in January! Even January had record highs before the Arctic air that one weekend and then February and March were among the all time warmest

It's ironic because June and July didn't seem that bad but even they were above normal due to the unusually warm nights

It's been even worse west of here too. We actually had some rain and a brief break the other day

August is +9 in OKC right now. It's just insane. There are some areas even threatening 1980 and 2011 which are the modern benchmarks here
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At least y'all aren't under heat warnings/advisories for one day. It's been brutal there.
 
snowc said:
Pivotal Sunday (I use Pivotal on Sundays to check on long term model runs) says hold my beer
View attachment 197667
And a cold front comes on by the third or fourth week of September. Wonder if that will happen???
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Either then or by the 3rd or 4th week in November. What is the 25,623 hour CFS saying?
 
NBAcentel said:
Looks very much like a super nino pattern. Warm everywhere. Source region is sweating
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Strong case can be made we are headed toward a year without winter. Like what happened back in the last big super ultra el nino forever ago years.

Look at current sst's. Got two huge areas of the pacific Glowing Red and the current Atlantic basin is runing AN, save the western carribean.

Gonna be interesting how these sst's look by Thanksgiving in 90 days.


1788007371923.jpeg
 
SD said:
At least we will be able to say we lived through the hottest September on record
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The nuts part is it would have to be much worst to be a record here. Looking at 1925 without AC would have truly been a horrible movie of epic proportions...Wow...

We are wimps...
 
We had a A+ winter here last year. Bout as good as you can get. 7-8 diff occasions pure snow event plus one major sleet event. Below normal Dec and Jan. Now all the snow events where novelity stuff except the 12.5 event.

Neutral enso, heavy duty modikis and la nina are way to go for mby. I pray i eat crow , but mod to strong el nino's need a rabbit out of the hat like 2009-2010. Else we will get burried in pac air.

The old RC rule of thumb. Get it cold 1st then find the moisture.

All that said, you have a much higher chance to score a big dog in these big el nino. Favor back half winter so keep that in mind. Im talking like Jan 2000 , March 93 superstorm , Feb 28 2004 stuff.

Miller A mega bombs from southern jet will be in plentiful supply.

The split flow , finding help from western canada with a spiked ridge being parked correctly and able to deliver cold down the escalator through the eastern plains is gonna be the hard part.
 
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Ok, so it's the GFS, but we are looking for anything to give us some hope. The 12z run has a much different development, really starting the 7th; and brings own an actual refreshing front through the evening of the 10th. Not saying it will happen of course, but this is the best signal I've seen yet. I am going to pull for this {sorry Brent}.

1788027868582.gif
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Ok, so it's the GFS, but we are looking for anything to give us some hope. The 12z run has a much different development, really starting the 7th; and brings own an actual refreshing front through the evening of the 10th. Not saying it will happen of course, but this is the best signal I've seen yet. I am going to pull for this {sorry Brent}.

View attachment 197692
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lol. Gfs … Brent won’t have to worry bout that .
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Ok, so it's the GFS, but we are looking for anything to give us some hope. The 12z run has a much different development, really starting the 7th; and brings own an actual refreshing front through the evening of the 10th. Not saying it will happen of course, but this is the best signal I've seen yet. I am going to pull for this {sorry Brent}.

View attachment 197692
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Honestly, the 18z models are slowly changing their tune. Trying to get a weakness over the SE or a more progressive pattern.
 
Arcc said:
Honestly, the 18z models are slowly changing their tune. Trying to get a weakness over the SE or a more progressive pattern.
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Yeah this gfs run rex blocks off the WC which is a slak dunk for an ec trough. Too bad it's alone right now. The rest of this run will be a beauty probably pop a -nao and get temps indy the 40s and 50s
 
This schit is getting old - next 6 days. Lets see if it verifies - we have had 20" of rain since the last big heat dome, so the feedback loop here in Monroe may not realize.

Sunny and hot, with a high near 94
Sunny and hot, with a high near 98
Sunny and hot, with a high near 97
Sunny and hot, with a high near 99
Sunny and hot, with a high near 99
Sunny and hot, with a high near 97
 
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SuperNET said:
This schit is getting old - next 6 days. Lets see if it verifies - we have had 20" of rain since the last big heat dome, so the feedback loop here in Monroe may not realize.

Sunny and hot, with a high near 94
Sunny and hot, with a high near 98
Sunny and hot, with a high near 97
Sunny and hot, with a high near 99
Sunny and hot, with a high near 99
Sunny and hot, with a high near 97
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Tulsa, OK (the new desert). Tulsa, OK received only 0.51 inches of rain over the last 40 days (Tulsa International Airport station between July 21 and August 30, 2026). That's fcuk'ed

Next 7 days -
Sunny and hot, with a high near 102
Sunny and hot, with a high near 101
Sunny and hot, with a high near 100
Sunny and hot, with a high near 102
Sunny and hot, with a high near 100
Sunny and hot, with a high near 101
Sunny and hot, with a high near 102
 
Different signals on the last two runs of the GFS, way out in fantasy land (day 14). Here are the dew points for both runs:

0z run (with tropical activity off the coast)
1788098462898.png


6z run (with a true Fall airmass)
1788098343099.png

I'm pulling for the 6z...
 
FallsLake said:
Different signals on the last two runs of the GFS, way out in fantasy land (day 14). Here are the dew points for both runs:

0z run (with tropical activity off the coast)
View attachment 197705


6z run (with a true Fall airmass)
View attachment 197704

I'm pulling for the 6z...
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30 degree spreads in the eps from the 8th on the. Op is at the bottom of the plume but it was at the top of the upcoming heateave and kind of led the way
 
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SuperNET said:
Tulsa, OK (the new desert). Tulsa, OK received only 0.51 inches of rain over the last 40 days (Tulsa International Airport station between July 21 and August 30, 2026). That's fcuk'ed

Next 7 days -
Sunny and hot, with a high near 102
Sunny and hot, with a high near 101
Sunny and hot, with a high near 100
Sunny and hot, with a high near 102
Sunny and hot, with a high near 100
Sunny and hot, with a high near 101
Sunny and hot, with a high near 102
Click to expand...

It's a dry heat. ;)
 
EV/WS said:
It's a dry heat. ;)
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To be fair yeah it probably won't be as bad as the peak of the heat was here overall(we are stepping down on that a little I mean there was one morning it was like 86 degrees at sunrise) but still....it's the fact our record over 100 is only 10 days and this is happening still after how bad August was is driving everyone crazy I think

Looks like 6 or 7 right now. We'll see how that trends

The bigger issue is for sure how dry it's gotten overall in most of the region. Still waiting for that super El Nino to be wet
 
jackendrickwx said:
i am on my knees begging
View attachment 197706
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My energy use doubled year over year this month. I changed out the condenser fan motor on my AC unit last week and my daily energy use is already down 40%. My electric bill was $425 last month for a 1300 sq ft home đź’€ bring the cold
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
My energy use doubled year over year this month. I changed out the condenser fan motor on my AC unit last week and my daily energy use is already down 40%. My electric bill was $425 last month for a 1300 sq ft home đź’€ bring the cold
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Mine was $513, but aging AC system and constant washer and drier use tends to do that.

May need to do what you did.
 
tennessee storm said:
Heat cost actually higher lol. Overall. Bring me 70 s and 60 s highs this winter
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My winter bills are usually higher than summer but not by much. We got an all new unit last year so that has helped. We also have a cast iron wood stove so I can help offset the heating somewhat.
 
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