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Tropical Tropical Storm Dolly

snowc said:
Too late @Wild Weather Monger
​
Special Message from NHC​
Thu, 27 Aug 2026 14:08:03 +0000​

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly (formerly AL96) located in the central Tropical Atlantic, at 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC).
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Not at all. It's weak and is almost certain to degrade into an open wave. I stand behind my post.
 
NCSNOW said:
View attachment 197633
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That is some strong wind shear Dolly will encounter! It is easy to see why the NHC is not too optimistic at this time about any significant development and its future in general. If it could get close to Cuba, even as a tropical wave, there is the chance it could redevelop as conditions there are more favorable. The trade winds are howling this hurricane season.
 
12Z UKMET: rapid WNW move in MDR with no strengthening followed by TS strength outside of MDR and change of move to NW well off the SE US at the end with interaction between Dolly and the TS hitting CHS making it more of a forecast challenge:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.08.2026

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 37.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2026 0 13.6N 37.4W 1009 30
0000UTC 28.08.2026 12 14.0N 41.3W 1009 31
1200UTC 28.08.2026 24 14.5N 45.7W 1010 31
0000UTC 29.08.2026 36 15.3N 49.9W 1011 32
1200UTC 29.08.2026 48 16.3N 54.0W 1011 33
0000UTC 30.08.2026 60 17.3N 57.7W 1011 33
1200UTC 30.08.2026 72 18.7N 61.0W 1011 35
0000UTC 31.08.2026 84 19.7N 63.4W 1010 32
1200UTC 31.08.2026 96 20.4N 65.8W 1010 34
0000UTC 01.09.2026 108 21.0N 67.5W 1009 32
1200UTC 01.09.2026 120 21.5N 69.4W 1007 35
0000UTC 02.09.2026 132 21.8N 70.6W 1006 36
1200UTC 02.09.2026 144 22.8N 72.2W 1004 39
0000UTC 03.09.2026 156 23.7N 73.7W 997 42
1200UTC 03.09.2026 168 25.2N 75.3W 992 49
 
GaWx said:
12Z UKMET: rapid WNW move in MDR with no strengthening followed by TS strength outside of MDR and change of move to NW well off the SE US at the end:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.08.2026

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 37.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2026 0 13.6N 37.4W 1009 30
0000UTC 28.08.2026 12 14.0N 41.3W 1009 31
1200UTC 28.08.2026 24 14.5N 45.7W 1010 31
0000UTC 29.08.2026 36 15.3N 49.9W 1011 32
1200UTC 29.08.2026 48 16.3N 54.0W 1011 33
0000UTC 30.08.2026 60 17.3N 57.7W 1011 33
1200UTC 30.08.2026 72 18.7N 61.0W 1011 35
0000UTC 31.08.2026 84 19.7N 63.4W 1010 32
1200UTC 31.08.2026 96 20.4N 65.8W 1010 34
0000UTC 01.09.2026 108 21.0N 67.5W 1009 32
1200UTC 01.09.2026 120 21.5N 69.4W 1007 35
0000UTC 02.09.2026 132 21.8N 70.6W 1006 36
1200UTC 02.09.2026 144 22.8N 72.2W 1004 39
0000UTC 03.09.2026 156 23.7N 73.7W 997 42
1200UTC 03.09.2026 168 25.2N 75.3W 992 49
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Looking at the numbers that might be close enough to cause some effects on the Southeast coast such as high tides and rip currents if Dolly is a little stronger than forecast.
 
04LP.GIF
 
Comparing today’s 12Z UKMET 120 hour map with the 168 hour map of the 12Z UK of 48 hours ago using Pivotal shows they’re pretty similar with regard to both with a somewhat healthy Dolly (1007 mb/well organized vs 999 mb on the run from 48 hours ago) recurving and the preliminary low back to being just a weak (1012ish) low that’s not designated a TC and headed toward NE FL:

IMG_2137.jpeg

IMG_2135.jpeg
 
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lexxnchloe said:
They need more rules on naming. When a supposed storm is forecast to fall apart as soon as its named, its in the middle of nowhere, and no recon, then wait at least 24 hours to see if it can persist. Just a name to up numbers. There was no hurry at all to name it.
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I think they get paid per named storm.
 
lexxnchloe said:
They need more rules on naming. When a supposed storm is forecast to fall apart as soon as its named, its in the middle of nowhere, and no recon, then wait at least 24 hours to see if it can persist. Just a name to up numbers. There was no hurry at all to name it.
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But 96L was pretty well organized for a good while before being designated TS Dolly. They could have called 96L a TD earlier.
 
Shaggy said:
She does finally look like an open wave without much westerlies on her south side. Some Ensembles revive her or her energy albeit very weak later on.
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I think the system is more vigerous that many thought it would be atm. The chances of redevelopment once past Hispaniola have increased IMO. Dolly presents a threat to the SE and GOM and shouldn't be slept on.
 
Yeah, I'm just a layperson, but I'd probably go 20-30% on redevelopment for now in the 7 day outlook. The models petering this out have a good bit of land interaction, but this has taken enough of a jog north that it may not interact with Hispaniola much.

If dry air doesn't get her, she'll probably regenerate in that world, and it'll potentially be interesting to see how good conditions are near SE Bahama...though I'd still say a weak TS would probably be most likely.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Yeah, I'm just a layperson, but I'd probably go 20-30% on redevelopment for now in the 7 day outlook. The models petering this out have a good bit of land interaction, but this has taken enough of a jog north that it may not interact with Hispaniola much.

If dry air doesn't get her, she'll probably regenerate in that world, and it'll potentially be interesting to see how good conditions are near SE Bahama...though I'd still say a weak TS would probably be most likely.
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If X Dolly makes it to the GOM, all bets are off. It would be a threat all the way to Texas with this stout 500mb high over the Eastern US.
1788009705885.png
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
If X Dolly makes it to the GOM, all bets are off. It would be a threat all the way to Texas with this stout 500mb high over the Eastern US.
View attachment 197686
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Yeah and there's been a signal of something in the Gulf already but it might be a different storm. Well see

I mean I think if Dolly is actually a thing it probably won't be a different storm. That's probably what is confusing the models
 
0Z UKMET: Strengthening H moving slowly WNW NC Gulf at 168

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 24.6N 78.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2026 108 24.9N 79.9W 1008 30
0000UTC 04.09.2026 120 25.9N 82.1W 1005 33
1200UTC 04.09.2026 132 27.3N 84.2W 1001 38
0000UTC 05.09.2026 144 28.0N 86.2W 996 43
1200UTC 05.09.2026 156 28.4N 87.8W 989 61
0000UTC 06.09.2026 168 28.7N 88.9W 977 68
 
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12 UKMET: ex-Dolly becomes a TD right before it moves NW into FL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 26.5N 78.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.09.2026 108 27.5N 79.5W 1008 29
1200UTC 04.09.2026 120 29.2N 81.3W 1008 31
0000UTC 05.09.2026 132 30.8N 83.2W 1008 24
1200UTC 05.09.2026 144 32.0N 85.4W 1009 19
0000UTC 06.09.2026 156 32.8N 87.3W 1008 18
1200UTC 06.09.2026 168 33.1N 87.9W 1008 20
 
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