97-98 is probably the top analog if you are looking at SSTs as a whole imoAlright, let's toss 1997-1998 since it's in dispute on here. All in on 1982-1983!
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Wintry Winter 26-27
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Hard to imagine this is even close!??
Don’t imagine this much “ warm” everywhere!?? Not gonna be warm in AK and also most of the US! Call Bullocks! But something to look at!
Don’t imagine this much “ warm” everywhere!?? Not gonna be warm in AK and also most of the US! Call Bullocks! But something to look at!
Hype continues
HailCore
Member
I do remember something similar for the 2023-24 winter with her saying at least one snow or ice event likely (potentially multiple) and then the winter being a dud aside from a glaze of ice and a few flurries one morning along that mid-Jan arctic blast. Makes you wonder the good in predicting these well in advance when in my opinion, the region as a whole has benefitted far more from recent La Ninas than that one El Niño
Overall I think Ella does a pretty solid job down here. But she can definitely be prone to hyping up/posting the most extreme solutions. Imagine it’s wanting to get more exposure. Everyone is guilty of that these days so it’s hard to really fault her too much
Brent
Member
I keep trying to warn people about this and get "well this time will be different"
El Nino has been trash here for awhile
I mean I do kind of agree with the whole thing about I'd rather take my chances with more borderline setups and not 10 degrees again because it's been awhile but I dunno
The fact we can't even get rid of the constant warmth is my biggest concern right now. It's not just been the summer here it started way before that
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Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t ‘23-‘24 the year that strong Aleutian ridge got locked in and just kept flooding the continent with Pacific air? I say that because we’ve seen that ridge dig in both in LaNina and El Niño lately. Last year tropical forcing helped to get dislodged and set up a good second half of January.
Brent
Member
Yeah that was the year we had two different storms in the mid to upper 30s and the snow didn't pan out at the last minute if I recall right
I know last winter was warm here but it still had a big storm
23-24 had two back to back , almost double digit snowfalls and then winter was basically over! But gave me the most snow on the ground I e seen in person, my whole life! It only takes one…
J1C1111
Member
Moving to SW Virginia this fall guys. Lived in Rutherford County NC all my 44 years on this earth and can't wait to get up there and get in on the NW flow that always seems to stop right in my backyard and cash in on all the snows I have missed down here at 33-36 degrees over the last 40 or so years. The area im moving to averages between 24-28 inches of snowfall per year. A far cry from the 6-7 average in Rutherford County and that has been going down the last 10 or so years. Been going up there all my life as family is from that area and just got a opportunity to move up there and everything is working out to hopefully be up that way by the first of the year. One thing I'm not going to miss down here is battling these fire ants 8-9 months out of the year and will shave about 10 degrees off the average temperature up there in the winter time. Highs in the low 40s and low 20s in peak winter in January. NW flow is the big thing up there that I always miss down here. That area gets a lot of 2-4 inch snows from NW flow. I'm like a kid in candy store right now thinking of all the snow opportunities up there. It's a whole new ballgame. I might even be able to give LukeBarrette a run for his money up there on the snowfall totals. Got to get on these Cavalier and Hokie fans up there and show em the Blue Devils are still the boss lol. I know as soon as I leave you guys will get clobbered with a big se snowstorm in the Carolinas and Georgia and further south. I will always be rooting for you guys to cash in on the snowfall from flurries to the big dawgs and in between and the colder temperatures. Rutherford County NC will always be my home. It always will be. I'm just thankful me and my family get to move further north and hopefully get to enjoy more of the weather we love. Good luck to everyone this upcoming fall and winter on the snowfall opportunities. I'll keep everyone updated on my seasonal snowfall totals up there. Can't wait!
You know Kenny Powers! ???
And Midway fishing lake
Bass Shack??? I know my way around Cleveland county!
Congrats on the move! Ship me some ROs BBQ slaw!
J1C1111
Member
Thanks buddy. I really appreciate that. It's a small small world. Me and my dad used to fish lake Moss in Cleveland county a lot back in the day. I'm down in Cleveland county a lot for work. I'll trade you some ROs and BBQ slaw for some snow this winter. Thanks man!
Awesome! I’ll trade snow for ROs!!
I grew up for 20 years in the Gastonia , Cramerton , Belmont areas! Miss those towns sometimes! Never fished Moss lake, but know a lot of people that did!
JP152
Member
That's awesome man! Born and raised in Virginia and I miss the hell out of it. I hope you get feet of it this Winter.
Latest models forecast peak el nino Nov. Through the roof and will take a long time to even crawl back down below the +2.0 line. Which is the threshhold, benchmark for strong el nino.
NWMSGuy
Member
I imagine the fall severe weather season will be interesting.
I imagine the fall severe weather season will be interesting.
Kind of tend to doubt it. Probably a slopfest.
tennessee storm
Member
All the predictions from so called experts say extremely active fall severe coming , especially tornado wise . November to December is the main time to watchI imagine the fall severe weather season will be interesting.
NWMSGuy
Member
I believe last time we had temps this warm in Nino 3.4 we were dealing with the December 23rd 2015 Tornado that tore through several counties hear in North MS including the town of Holly Springs.
tennessee storm
Member
Correct sir ….this El Niño going blow that one out of the water
Kind of interesting….
Sleetisfunbutsnowisgood
Member
I thought this was interesting
Brent
Member
That's the year I've been talking about for an analog for awhile and yeah it's why I've been so pessimistic. It's definitely the worst one
I thought I left behind the days of a tornado being the highlight of the winter in Alabama but yeah the one in Dallas was up there with the worst scares I've had and I have zero memories of anything wintry
Even up here I only see maybe a couple inches one day and it's by far the warmest winter
Even 97-98 and 82-83 weren't that bad here. I'd say it's the one analog I have the most concerns about
Sleetisfunbutsnowisgood
Member
It looks almost guaranteed for a warm December. After that is what im most interested in
The 0z CFS is showing what I expect to see a lot of this winter on its last 4-5 frames. Obviously this want happen on Oct 1st like it has depicted.
But we should see a lot Seaboard runners this season. If the cold could some how show up it would be a lot of fun to be had. But ill be really shocked not to see a heavy dose of lows coming up out of the GOA / & up the EC. Could be a bad year for coastal erosion imo.
But we should see a lot Seaboard runners this season. If the cold could some how show up it would be a lot of fun to be had. But ill be really shocked not to see a heavy dose of lows coming up out of the GOA / & up the EC. Could be a bad year for coastal erosion imo.
The Dalton Hwy up in northern Alaska is starting to whiten up past couple days.
It may only take one nice tracking Miller A from the gulf to well offshore FL along with a strong enough Canadian high to the north to make for a great wintry precip winter for a good portion of the SE. And with two, that could make it legendary like in 1972-3.
It even snowed in New Orleans back in 73 with a couple of other threats. I still recall watching the clouds roll in day after day on the Southern jet. Back in the day, when my winter weather tracking mainly consisted of watching the thermometer and hourly obs from Galveston and Lake Charles, lol.
In SAV, I had the 2nd biggest snow of my young life on 2/10/73 at 3.2”. Decades later I found out that this was the 2nd heaviest snow there going back to at least the 1870s!
At the time I had no idea this was coming! I woke up to it snowing with a beautiful white cover on the ground. I had already been very interesting in following the local wx by then on TV and in the newspaper. So, apparently I wasn’t following it closely that time and/or it wasn’t well forecasted. If I get time, I’ll try to check the old newspapers to see what the forecast was.
Yeah, that snow wasn't forecasted for N.O either. I woke up to a to a rain sleet mix that went to heavy snow with lightning for an hour or so at sundown.
tennessee storm
Member
With a super Nino. Think Cole air is going be lacking for better part this winter . Pacific firehouse incoming
That’s ok. Cold air is typically lacking in good portions of winters in the SE. With El Niño and west QBO, there’s a pretty good chance that the first half of this winter, especially in Dec, will be largely lacking cold air in the SE. Our best shot as of now appears to be Feb. Keep hope alive!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I can’t wait to hit the beach this Christmas yet again. If there was ever a winter to come out of the gate torching, it’s this one.
In my opinion, the best snow events are surprises like this 73 event ya’ll are describing. There’s nothing better than having zero expectations and having a winter surprise. Late hvy changeover or you get double the expected amount. I miss that and can’t remember the last one I experienced.
JP152
Member
Just under 30 inches at the house. Only 36 for the entire season though.
Makes you wonder how many forecasts busted back in the 70s and earlier. They really only get it right 40% of the time now.
Brent
Member
Exactly the same here. The best storm I've seen since I moved here was supposed to be south of us. An inch became 7 inches overnight
I remember the same thing as a kid 30 years ago in Alabama I think I even remember me personally hyping something at school and then it didn't pan out haha
I know we all think the models suck now, but I know they've gotten better since the 80's/90's. I'd imagine those 70's forecasts busted quite a bit. Probably more often than not.
On that note--did we even have weather models in the 70's??
I know we all think the models suck now, but I know they've gotten better since the 80's/90's. I'd imagine those 70's forecasts busted quite a bit. Probably more often than not.
On that note--did we even have weather models in the 70's??
Yes and even well before then:
Per AI per Wiki:
“The first widespread operational use of computer models for weather forecasting began in the mid-1950s to mid-1960s. The Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit was formed in the U.S. in 1954, and routine daily operational computer forecasts started around 1955 in the United States and 1965 in the United Kingdom, following the first computerized forecast run on the ENIAC computer in 1950.”