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Tropical 2026 Tropics Thread 🌀

NoSnowATL said:
True but we haven’t had a major disaster all year.
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Indiana, Utah, Washington state have had it rough with historical flooding and Fire wx burning 100's structures down. Probably need to throw Nebraska in there as I swear they have Tornado warnings every other day this summer along with Illinois
 
NCSNOW said:
Indiana, Utah, Washington state have had it rough with historical flooding and Fire wx burning 100's structures down. Probably need to throw Nebraska in there as I swear they have Tornado warnings every other day this summer along with Illinois
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True, looks like 2026 is ranked in 7th on the number of $$$ disasters. The list goes back to 1980.
 
0Z UKMET has a TS form in the MDR early next week that then moves WNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.4N 20.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 12.9N 22.2W 1007 30
0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 13.7N 26.0W 1008 33
1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 13.1N 30.9W 1003 37
0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 12.8N 34.7W 1002 36
1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 13.0N 38.3W 1002 36
0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 14.0N 42.6W 1005 38
 
0Z UKMET also has a TS form in the subtropical region:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 29.9N 58.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2026 60 30.4N 59.0W 1015 25
0000UTC 24.08.2026 72 31.2N 59.5W 1015 28
1200UTC 24.08.2026 84 32.6N 60.2W 1013 33
0000UTC 25.08.2026 96 34.9N 59.6W 1012 30
1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 37.7N 58.5W 1007 36
0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 41.7N 55.6W 1003 44
1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 46.8N 50.7W 1000 43
0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 51.0N 42.4W 999 40
1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 53.5N 34.1W 996 33
0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 POST-TROPICAL
 
Following up to the 2 posts above:
1) The TS in the subtropical region in the post just above this is also on the 12Z UKMET.

2) The 12Z UKMET still has this as a TS in the MDR moving rapidly (22-25 mph) WNW after TCG early next week:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.7N 21.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2026 96 12.2N 22.3W 1008 31
0000UTC 26.08.2026 108 12.9N 25.9W 1009 29
1200UTC 26.08.2026 120 12.8N 29.9W 1007 31
0000UTC 27.08.2026 132 12.9N 34.3W 1005 36
1200UTC 27.08.2026 144 12.8N 38.5W 1002 37
0000UTC 28.08.2026 156 13.4N 42.5W 1003 37
1200UTC 28.08.2026 168 14.5N 47.1W 1006 39
 
Last edited:
Regarding the AEW progged to come off Africa 8/24-5, the 12Z GFS/Euro AI are weak, especially Euro, and have it go in or near the Leewards Aug 31st.

The reg. Euro has had this as a TC since way back on the 12Z 8/15 run.

The 12Z Euro has it, but early on it is the weakest run for it well out in the MDR since 0Z 8/17 run. Keep in mind, however, that weaker could ultimately prove more dangerous for the W basin nearby land areas as strong runs have mostly been recurving safely as regards the Conus. Note that late in the run it is pretty far W (73W) and strengthens into a MH as it recurves not too far from the E coast.

The model consensus has this moving at 20+ mph WNW in the MDR to the SSW of a strong E ATL high. That may be a reason models are keeping this rather weak out in that area.

This is still not on the TWO. But they may change soon.
 
^The African wave made it onto the 8PM TWO as a lemon.

0Z UKMET: TCG delayed 24 hrs vs prior 2 runs. Again becomes a TS (delayed 12 hrs) that remains low end moving a million mph WNW in MDR:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.7N 28.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2026 108 11.4N 30.4W 1008 30
0000UTC 27.08.2026 120 11.9N 34.6W 1007 33
1200UTC 27.08.2026 132 11.8N 38.7W 1005 36
0000UTC 28.08.2026 144 12.6N 43.0W 1006 37
1200UTC 28.08.2026 156 13.4N 47.5W 1006 37
0000UTC 29.08.2026 168 14.7N 52.3W 1007 39
 
These waves over the next 2 weeks are worth watching. Atlantic will become less hostile particularly as waves get farther west. Pattern favors recurves with the ridge parked over the central/sw us and wave breaking through the lakes. Still not a 0 chance of something making it to the US though. Slow development could push to the US
 
12Z UKMET: TCG 30 hours later than last run and 54 hours later than the 2 runs prior to the last one. This run has only a TD moving WNW at 27 mph before then dissipating.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 11.7N 38.8W
12Z UKMET:

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2026 120 11.7N 38.8W 1010 28
0000UTC 28.08.2026 132 13.5N 43.3W 1011 27
1200UTC 28.08.2026 144 14.1N 48.2W 1011 30
0000UTC 29.08.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING
 
^12Z Euro is similarly weak in the MDR to yesterday’s Euro. But similar to it, it becomes a MH once moving out of the tropics. It passes Bermuda to the W as a MH 9/3-4 similar to the Bermuda MH hit of today’s 0Z run.
 
The 0Z UKMET has TCG 30 hours earlier than the 12Z and is back to having a TS. At 168, it is just E of the Leewards moving rapidly WNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 11.9N 29.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2026 84 12.1N 30.6W 1009 28
0000UTC 27.08.2026 96 12.4N 34.7W 1007 32
1200UTC 27.08.2026 108 12.7N 38.6W 1004 35
0000UTC 28.08.2026 120 13.4N 42.8W 1005 38
1200UTC 28.08.2026 132 14.2N 47.1W 1004 43
0000UTC 29.08.2026 144 15.1N 51.8W 1006 39
1200UTC 29.08.2026 156 16.1N 56.4W 1007 41
0000UTC 30.08.2026 168 17.2N 60.9W 1008 36
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z UKMET has TCG 30 hours earlier than the 12Z and is back to having a TS. At 168, it is just E of the Leewards moving rapidly WNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 11.9N 29.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2026 84 12.1N 30.6W 1009 28
0000UTC 27.08.2026 96 12.4N 34.7W 1007 32
1200UTC 27.08.2026 108 12.7N 38.6W 1004 35
0000UTC 28.08.2026 120 13.4N 42.8W 1005 38
1200UTC 28.08.2026 132 14.2N 47.1W 1004 43
0000UTC 29.08.2026 144 15.1N 51.8W 1006 39
1200UTC 29.08.2026 156 16.1N 56.4W 1007 41
0000UTC 30.08.2026 168 17.2N 60.9W 1008 36
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Most models show a very early recurve and that's supported by the ensembles. That would make the ukmet a bit of an outlier.
 
Shaggy said:
Most models show a very early recurve and that's supported by the ensembles. That would make the ukmet a bit of an outlier.
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I agree 100% that the UKMET is clearly a leftward outlier, which is a bit of a UK bias when it keeps a TC weaker than other models.

The 12Z UK keeps it that way as it’s similar to the 0Z although a bit weaker:

The 12Z UK has it move WNW rapidly in the MDR before just missing Leewards to the NE as a TD:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.5N 30.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2026 72 11.5N 30.4W 1009 29
0000UTC 27.08.2026 84 12.6N 33.3W 1008 36
1200UTC 27.08.2026 96 12.6N 37.3W 1007 32
0000UTC 28.08.2026 108 13.6N 41.5W 1008 34
1200UTC 28.08.2026 120 14.7N 46.4W 1010 34
0000UTC 29.08.2026 132 15.3N 51.6W 1010 33
1200UTC 29.08.2026 144 16.5N 56.2W 1011 33
0000UTC 30.08.2026 156 17.2N 60.6W 1010 30
1200UTC 30.08.2026 168 18.5N 64.2W 1010 32
 
^For the same TW now emerging from Africa:

12Z UKMET vs 0Z: similar rapid WNW track through MDR though 2-3 mb stronger starting near 50W. As it leaves MDR and slows down, it strengthens notably at the end of the run to mid-level TS while still moving WNW on heading in direction of SE Bahamas though still 300+ miles from there. Remains a significant SW outlier, which could be due to a SW bias that it sometimes exhibits with weak systems:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.6N 31.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2026 60 12.1N 33.5W 1007 30
1200UTC 27.08.2026 72 12.3N 37.6W 1007 34
0000UTC 28.08.2026 84 13.2N 41.6W 1008 34
1200UTC 28.08.2026 96 14.0N 46.3W 1009 35
0000UTC 29.08.2026 108 14.9N 50.9W 1009 33
1200UTC 29.08.2026 120 16.5N 55.4W 1010 34
0000UTC 30.08.2026 132 17.5N 59.1W 1009 33
1200UTC 30.08.2026 144 18.9N 62.5W 1009 35
0000UTC 31.08.2026 156 19.6N 65.2W 1008 34
1200UTC 31.08.2026 168 20.2N 67.8W 1004 52
 
Sad Coffee GIF
 
GaWx said:
Wow! RIP Dolly.
The timing with the next named storm is crazy.
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It is ironic that we were making Dolly Parton jokes in conjunction with what may become Dolly on the horizon and she passes away. She sang and wrote a lot of memorable songs and her persona was bigger than life.
 
weather bubba said:
It is ironic that we were making Dolly Parton jokes in conjunction with what may become Dolly on the horizon and she passes away. She sang and wrote a lot of memorable songs and her persona was bigger than life.
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I rarely if ever heard anyone say anything bad about her. How often can that be said of any public figure in our lifetimes? Not often for sure!
 
It's not often that, at this time of year, none of the globals have much, if any, hurricane development outside of a short-lived possible Dolly right up until the climatological peak of the hurricane season.

However, IMO, 96L (possible Dolly) needs to be watched for redevelopment in the SW Atlantic. And, of course, something is likely to pop up in early September regardless of modeling.
 
So far this hurricane season has been one of the least active in recent memory. I think the NWS was generous to classify the three storms that reached naming status and we should be sitting at a goose egg as far as activity. It is Cape Verde season and still have time to go before we reach the peak of hurricane season but with the shredder that is still operating over the Atlantic basin, it is hard to see anything with hurricane potential developing until conditions improve.
 
weather bubba said:
So far this hurricane season has been one of the least active in recent memory. I think the NWS was generous to classify the three storms that reached naming status and we should be sitting at a goose egg as far as activity. It is Cape Verde season and still have time to go before we reach the peak of hurricane season but with the shredder that is still operating over the Atlantic basin, it is hard to see anything with hurricane potential developing until conditions improve.
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Naw we still got time to name thunderstorm complex’s or naked swirls.
 
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