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Pattern NC Only Thread

FallsLake said:
You're a lot closer to the mountains now. Very easy day trips. Many years back I use to gold pan on the Wilson Creek. That's not too far from you.
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Yeah the cool thing about here is that you can pretty much be anywhere in the mountains that you'd want to go within an hour and a half.
 
I have next week off to finally try to get some fishing in etc.....

Monday
Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 8am. High near 84. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Monday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
 
QPF is over compensated for my location at least, I would like to see it come to fruition for eastern Union County but it always seems to go north or south.
 
Shaggy said:
Yup after observing this mornings cumulus field we are juiced up and ready to go. Once we get some heating and these showers can blow up there's gonna be a lot of showers and storms. May not be big and long lasting but this onshore flow is gonna drop someone a few inches of rain
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Let’s hope we are in it. Looks like the breeze may push them further inland…we will see
 
Shaggy said:
Next time you're driving around pay attention to the trees around and you'll start seeing quite a few dead trees. Even saw a dead pecan tree the other day
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I've been paying attention to the trees in woods behind my backyard at my residence and I have seen some yellow leaves on the tulip and sweetgum trees. On the mulberry tree I get berries from every year, all of the leaves have a slight yellow tint. I'm afraid it might be in trouble.

The fig tree in my backyard, strangely enough, is producing a record harvest this year. I might try to make some fig preserves.
 
SD said:
I swear man it rains in the same places day after day and the rest of us just hope for scraps or to get lucky with their outflows
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It's true - GSP backed off quite a bit again for this week. Union Co. NC is just not lined up for this new pattern of flow - rain moves south and east - and this supports JHS who is lined up to me WSW to ENE - same for Union Co. SC.
 
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jackendrickwx said:
7.60” since 6/1
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That's not terrible given how close you are to Jonesville. Also my June total was like 1 inch or so so in that time frame we aren't too far apart. Im just frustrated over largely missing out of the last big wet and yesterday. I assume your average from 6/1 today is probably around 9-10?
 
SD said:
That's not terrible given how close you are to Jonesville. Also my June total was like 1 inch or so so in that time frame we aren't too far apart. Im just frustrated over largely missing out of the last big wet and yesterday. I assume your average from 6/1 today is probably around 9-10?
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ye pretty much 9" on the dot. doesn't really seem very dry here either. downtown GVL has had it worse (5-6"ish in that period)
 
NWS is all giddy up for today. See if they can get one right here.

KEY MESSAGE 1... Numerous showers and thunderstorms with areas of
heavy rainfall remain possible today, with the greatest chance from
our southwest sections NE to the Triad and Triangle regions and
along the Virginia border. This will lead to a risk of isolated
flooding.

Confidence is increasing in the potential for heavy downpours within
showers and storms today. The current mid level pattern features a
weak closed low over GA, while an offshore-centered anticyclone
extends ESE toward the Southeast coast, and the westerlies remain
displaced well to our N. This is leading to a steady SSE-to-NNW flow
of moist and perturbed mid level flow across central NC, which will
persist today through tonight as the low drifts N toward far SW NC.
At the surface, a nearly stationary frontal zone stretches from the
FL Panhandle across GA, the NC Foothills, and south-central and
eastern VA. This front is likely to waver today as it succumbs to
the whims of convective outflows and subtle mid level disturbances,
but overall it should remain near or just NW of our N and W CWA
borders today/tonight. That keeps us in the warm sector, with a
plume of high PW (130%-140% of normal), especially over eastern and
northern sections this afternoon and evening, with the high-PW area
shifting N into VA overnight. While fairly high cloud cover for much
of the day will curb insolation amidst mid level lapse rates mostly
under 6 C/km, even modest heating of an already-muggy low level
depth will still favor CAPE of 750-1500 J/kg, with minor waves aloft
riding over our area supporting above-climo coverage of showers and
storms today.

In addition to the high PW and bouts of weak dynamic forcing for
ascent, other factors will exist which will favor a risk of
localized flooding rains. These include a high warm-cloud (LCL-0C)
depth of 4-4.5 km (favoring efficient warm rain processes), a
somewhat slow cell motion (expected to be under 15 kts), possible
training cells, and an added focus for ascent provided by outflows
and confluent flow along the low-mid level shear axis, likely to be
oriented SW-to-NE through the CWA, roughly from near CLT to near
IXA. The recent rain surplus has also led to damp or nearly
saturated soils (rainfall at GSO/FAY/RDU in the last two weeks is
200%-300% of normal). Will not issue a flood watch at this time, due
to the expected limited coverage of the heavy downpours and the
lingering uncertainty regarding exactly where the heavy rain might
be focused. But if localized heavy rain does fall as expected, in
particular over urban areas and highways, flood advisories or
warnings may still be needed.
 
something has to give today between the upper low and the moisture plus with embedded mcvs offshore. Either the moisture plume and mcvs wrap NW into the state and we rain a lot or everything gets choked out or moves NE offshore and the weak backdoor front near the VA border is the focus for the rain and I punch a hole in the wall
 
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