Wow, only 0.01” for SAV. Bad for the drought and means back to regular watering. But good for the anticipated visitors this weekend.
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Pattern May 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Wow, only 0.01” for SAV. Bad for the drought and means back to regular watering. But good for the anticipated visitors this weekend.
the only fast way to fix all of our drought issues over our ways is in the form of a decaying tropical system stalled out for a couple days
We're 18-20" down on rainfall since 9/1/2025 in NESC/SENC. It sounds unreal typing it but it's real.
That will help but 2 weeks of daily storms would also do wonders. Our problem is we're down so much precip there's honest to goodness hardpan in some of the fields. Seeing some of them turned over to plant beans the chunks are like cinder blocks and the turbo tiller is bouncing over some of the chunks. The amount of fields where nothing or very little germinated is scary and visible on satellite across the coastal plains of SC/NC/GA.
it's bad everywhere. seems like 0.6 last week in richmond got sucked up immediately. didn't make a dent. ive forgotten what mud feels like
it'd be great to get a 2-4 inch train of thunderstorms too. anything helps at this point.
Sheesh..Talk about a snap-back pattern. Y’all gonna be begging for the sun to come out
Impressive heavy rainfall this afternoon in Atlanta. Pretty sure we had some sort of weak wet microburst as well. Winds were howling outside easily 40-50mph
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Upstate can always jackpot with rain... NEVER for snow...
JHS
Member
Some of us came close back in January. We had our biggest snow in 12 years here.
Ron Burgundy
Member
Awesome. About to take off from RDU to ATL. Good times
What’s going on in that bathtub?
Currently 61
Don’t worry it’s not raining at the airportAwesome. About to take off from RDU to ATL. Good times
Wow. It’s bad downtown. Lots of streets flooding. Close to 3 inches in about 1.5 hours according to radar 
Ron Burgundy
Member
you're in a better spot than us. i would gladly take 2 weeks + of rain every day at this point
If this verifies I will be happier than a pig in ----
Not as cook bro tomorrow 
WOOHOO just picked up a quick 0.5". Two weeks of no rain and this heat was drying things out quickly.
Brent
Member
I'm sure it'll be summer into October instead 
I wonder what blend this NBM is based on. The 12Z run had for SAV only 0.01” and the 0Z, while a little better, still has only 0.08”:
But all of the other models (including ens means) except the CMC have had for a number of runs like 0.5-1”+! So, if the NBM is a blend of models, it doesn’t make sense.
Question for all, especially ATL metro peeps: how likely are the NE ATL burbs going to get 1”++ of rainfall between now and Monday? I was going to tell some friends, who just had grass seed put down and thus have to keep it watered a lot this weekend, that they won’t need to water at all based on near unanimous model agreement. Heck, the 0Z NBM that I just posted has 3”!
They were going to travel, but are postponing it due to needing to water. Before I tell them, am I correct? What are others seeing? Is there any chance the NE burbs don’t get 1”+ the next 96 hours?
They were going to travel, but are postponing it due to needing to water. Before I tell them, am I correct? What are others seeing? Is there any chance the NE burbs don’t get 1”+ the next 96 hours?
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This looks good.
Man the Euro overnight for the next two weeks is straight up glorious. The EPS agrees. The 6z GFS, however, brings the backdoor front through and kills rain chances for week two for a good bit of the area. That is one of the things I'm worried about, but it may be too aggressive. GEFS hasn't finished running yet, so IDK if it fully agrees or not.
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I bet that's due to poor maintenance of storm drains, not due to the amount of rain. Interstates are design to handle this type of situation.
Brent
Member
Getting an early start today. A heavy rain setup in May with no severe weather! We haven't had a single tornado this month for all the hype 
I don’t doubt the possibility that the storm drains in that area weren’t properly maintained and thus could have contributed to the problem. But keep in mind this from FFC:
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE IS 1 TO 2 INCHES IN 30
MINUTES. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.
and
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES
OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN.
3” falling within an hour in any one spot will just about always produce flash flooding for a short period in my experiences as it is difficult for storm drains to handle immediately
I’m still seeing a widespread 1-3” for just about the entire ATL metro area between now and Monday on just about all of the models. Are others seeing the same thing? The only model that isn’t as quite as wet seems to be the CMC, but even it has 1”+ in much of that area.
What do others see/think?
What do others see/think?
Highly likely. They should be more concerned with the seed being washed away if they get under a T-Storm than with being too dry. FFC is very bullish on high-pop rain chances right on through Memorial Day.
The next five days, if the National Weather Service forecast office in Raleigh is correct, may be one of the rainiest periods we have had in quite a while outside of a tropical system producing the precipitation. With an over eight inch rainfall deficit for 2026 compared to normal at RDU, I'm sure there will not be too many people unhappy with the rain except for those who had planned outdoor activities during this time frame.
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snowc
Member
Not 11" to cut it here.
snowc
Member
Back from NY, now there's a Marginal risk?! 
what a euro run overnight lol
Thank you!
I just told them that. They responded by saying that yesterday downtown got flooded but they got none. They were originally hoping they’d get enough rain this weekend to be able to leave it and take a trip but are now afraid it might ruin the seed if they don't get enough rain and aren’t there to water.
But:
1) I thought ATL area was forecasted to only get scattered storms yesterday (50% pops), which did verify. So them getting none yesterday wasn’t a surprise.
2) Am I correct in saying that the next few days are forecasted to be quite wet everywhere in metro ATL as opposed to just scattered showers?
3) If so, the lack of rain at their place yesterday isn’t a reason to worry about getting missed the next few days. Thus they should not water and could even travel without worry if they want. Is this correct?
snowc
Member
Still not enough to consider ending drought. 11+" are needed in order to end it.
SOURCE: https://www.wral.com/video/ask-the-...-of-our-drought-ending-anytime-soon/22348598/
When I referred to the plus eight inches needed, I was only using the RDU data since January 1, 2026. Before then we were already in the hole as far as rainfall. It will take about a foot of rain to get things back to normal to make up for the lack of precipitation.
The coverage yesterday was in the range of 15-20%, not the 60 or 70% that was forecast for my area. There has hardly been any rain around the past few days like what was forecast. It doesn't look like there will be any widespread rain today either. I guess we will see if the models are correct for the weekend, but we've seen this movie to many times before.
HRRR shows basically nothing.
