Enh for parts of the region
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Severe 5/6/26 Severe
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Probably going to get a few sups tomorrow just south of the rain band/clouds. Forcing may be enough to eventually send this linear/line segments but there seems to be a decent window for discrete from early afternoon into the early overnight
Crazy how much this has sped up today. Thought the worst of the line was going to hit ATL in the wee hours of the morning and now it might be storming by sunset
Brent
Member
NAM looks very interesting tomorrow 
shortstopsergio
Member
I was starting to wonder if the ATL area even was possible to have storms at a normal hour anymore
NEW SPC DAY ONE OUT LOOK
...Synopsis...
A strong mid to upper-level jet will move across the mid Mississippi
Valley into Tennessee and northward into the Ohio Valley through the
period. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward from the
southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states and north into the
Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing
along this boundary at the start of the period this morning across
portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee. By the
afternoon, additional development of severe storms is likely across
portions of Louisiana into central Mississippi and central Alabama
along and ahead of the cold front. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible before trending to a damaging wind threat as storms
grow upscale through the evening.
...Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama...
Extensive mid-level cloud cover is expected to persist this morning
across much of the Mississippi River Valley into portions of
northern Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi. Within the gradient of
broken mid-level cloud cover across portions of south-central and
southern Mississippi into central Alabama, filtered heating and
strong warm air advection may promote a more favorable corridor of
moderate MLCAPE values. Almost all hi-res guidance hints at the
possibility of storms developing within the open warm sector by the
afternoon, the primary mode being supercelluar. Within this
corridor, a southwesterly low-level jet around 40-50 kts will also
increase into the evening enlarging low-level hodographs and
increasing potential for tornadoes. Should supercells be able to
form and sustain within this environment, they would pose a risk for
all hazards including strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
winds. The Enhanced Risk was shifted southward to nudge into the
region where there is better confidence that filtered heating will
occur. Higher probabilities were considered, but details on morning
cloud cover and air mass recovery into the afternoon lead to low
confidence in introducing higher probabilities.
AND FROM NWS BIRMINGHAM
...Synopsis...
A strong mid to upper-level jet will move across the mid Mississippi
Valley into Tennessee and northward into the Ohio Valley through the
period. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward from the
southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states and north into the
Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing
along this boundary at the start of the period this morning across
portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee. By the
afternoon, additional development of severe storms is likely across
portions of Louisiana into central Mississippi and central Alabama
along and ahead of the cold front. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible before trending to a damaging wind threat as storms
grow upscale through the evening.
...Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama...
Extensive mid-level cloud cover is expected to persist this morning
across much of the Mississippi River Valley into portions of
northern Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi. Within the gradient of
broken mid-level cloud cover across portions of south-central and
southern Mississippi into central Alabama, filtered heating and
strong warm air advection may promote a more favorable corridor of
moderate MLCAPE values. Almost all hi-res guidance hints at the
possibility of storms developing within the open warm sector by the
afternoon, the primary mode being supercelluar. Within this
corridor, a southwesterly low-level jet around 40-50 kts will also
increase into the evening enlarging low-level hodographs and
increasing potential for tornadoes. Should supercells be able to
form and sustain within this environment, they would pose a risk for
all hazards including strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
winds. The Enhanced Risk was shifted southward to nudge into the
region where there is better confidence that filtered heating will
occur. Higher probabilities were considered, but details on morning
cloud cover and air mass recovery into the afternoon lead to low
confidence in introducing higher probabilities.
AND FROM NWS BIRMINGHAM
Welp
NEW SPC DAY ONE OUT LOOK
...Synopsis...
A strong mid to upper-level jet will move across the mid Mississippi
Valley into Tennessee and northward into the Ohio Valley through the
period. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward from the
southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states and north into the
Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing
along this boundary at the start of the period this morning across
portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee. By the
afternoon, additional development of severe storms is likely across
portions of Louisiana into central Mississippi and central Alabama
along and ahead of the cold front. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible before trending to a damaging wind threat as storms
grow upscale through the evening.
...Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama...
Extensive mid-level cloud cover is expected to persist this morning
across much of the Mississippi River Valley into portions of
northern Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi. Within the gradient of
broken mid-level cloud cover across portions of south-central and
southern Mississippi into central Alabama, filtered heating and
strong warm air advection may promote a more favorable corridor of
moderate MLCAPE values. Almost all hi-res guidance hints at the
possibility of storms developing within the open warm sector by the
afternoon, the primary mode being supercelluar. Within this
corridor, a southwesterly low-level jet around 40-50 kts will also
increase into the evening enlarging low-level hodographs and
increasing potential for tornadoes. Should supercells be able to
form and sustain within this environment, they would pose a risk for
all hazards including strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
winds. The Enhanced Risk was shifted southward to nudge into the
region where there is better confidence that filtered heating will
occur. Higher probabilities were considered, but details on morning
cloud cover and air mass recovery into the afternoon lead to low
confidence in introducing higher probabilities.
AND FROM NWS BIRMINGHAM
Quite a disconnect between BMX and SPC in the discussion. I'm with BMX 100%.
Brent
Member
What ARCC is referring to below from the BHM NWS morning discussion. I will say we are certainly more then due for some tornadoes, but we sure seem to be lacking important ingredients when it gets down to it.
From BHM NWS
"Thankfully, low level wind profiles show
a distinct veer-back-veer in the lowest 3km, which could hurt
tornadogenesis. Additionally, low-level shear values are on the
lower side of the spectrum needed for tornadoes. That`s not to
say we won`t see a tornado or two during this time, but from a
strictly environmental standpoint, these are a few things that
could ultimately hold the tornado threat back."
They are really high on the flood threat though.
Given high precipitable water values,
these storms will be very efficient rainfall producers, with
widespread 2-4 inches of rainfall expected. However, depending on
where the heaviest convective banding sets up, some locations
could see 5+ inches when it`s all said and done. We do expect
this heavier banding to set up somewhere, but confidence is
currently low as to exactly where. As of this evening, that
currently looks to be somewhere near the I-20 corridor.
And I don't know where SPC is getting a 50kt LLJ from unless they are just looking at convection contaminated CAMs.
Starting to wonder if SPC is a little too low in the tornado threat around Atlanta. I mean they barely have the 2% contour making it to the city
Pretty decent clearing ongoing on the I-20 corridor between Birmingham and Atlanta. Let’s see if we can get to the 80’s
Sure is looking like a messy storm mode on a lot of the short range models. Time will tell.
Probably so. Winds at 500mb are out of the west which is generally troubling, but the front is sagging and oriented W/E and the two will become even more parallel with each other as the day progresses.
Windergawx
Member
pretty much clear open skys atm
shortstopsergio
Member
Very sunny here in Cumming Ga
Ron Burgundy
Member
Sun’s out / guns out around ATL today
NoSnowATL
Member
Sunny in Mexico Beach.
Wow. Big extension of the 5% tornado and hatched into Georgia
Mahomeless
Member
Marginal wind threat at best with this setup....but the rain will be something to behold!
when sun?
straggler rolling through..thunder rolling
Y’all stay safe back towards Alabama 
Sunny and warm here in Athens, GA, sitting at 81F with 63 dp
We don't get many set ups around here where it's 80/63 and storms coming in during the evening. Curious if it amounts to anything
rburrel2
Member
Feels like this could be an over performer with how the radar and satellite look right now.
I selected different parameters on the data viewer
Hatched area east makes sense now. Suns out. And she’s toasty 
Man KBMX radar being down is gonna brutal the next few hours.
First severe thunderstorm warning is out
First severe thunderstorm warning is out
85 corridor looking spicy
Up to 83.5F, still holding at 63dp
Watch up for much of Alabama
Ron Burgundy
Member
Back in Statham - 85/65 here now. Sheesh
First tornado warning of the day and it almost looks anticyclonic
It's in central Louisiana
It's in central Louisiana
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 3,776
- Reaction score
- 5,986
79 here, dewpoint of 69.