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Pattern April Oven

More on developing SE rainfall climo during strong El Niño years:

1. Good news is that May-July do show near to wetter than normal on avg in SE:
IMG_0182.png

2. Aug-Sep then dry out due to lower than average tropical activity:
IMG_0183.png

3. Then Nov brings in widespread wetter than normal:

IMG_0181.png
 
GaWx said:
More on developing SE rainfall climo during strong El Niño years:

1. Good news is that May-July do show near to wetter than normal on avg in SE:
View attachment 195530

2. Aug-Sep then dry out due to lower than average tropical activity:
View attachment 195531

3. Then Nov brings in widespread wetter than normal:

View attachment 195532
Click to expand...
If we can just get to normal for QFP during the summer months that would save our agricultural sector. It wouldn't kill the drought, and with a dryer Fall, it may then get worse. But we would survive the growing season and then hopefully stop the drought this winter.
 
it will rain again one day. april was already the driest month for a lot of us historically. pattern change looks legit, although just like the ones in the winter, will likely have a two steps forward, one step back cadence until it finally gets to us
 
FallsLake said:
I ended up getting a downpour for about 10 seconds. Then a little more afterwards. It was enough to knock the pollen out of the air. This is a terrible pattern we're in....... We need that pattern change..
Click to expand...
Got .03
 
Not a fair comparison to compare analog years from the 1950s-2010s against 1991-2020 normals, whether it's for temps or for precip because the baseline climate in 1991-2020 is warmer. Use 1951-2010 normals in the composite for that purpose instead.
 
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Ross said:
it will rain again one day. april was already the driest month for a lot of us historically. pattern change looks legit, although just like the ones in the winter, will likely have a two steps forward, one step back cadence until it finally gets to us
Click to expand...

An interesting anecdote is the old timers can't remember the last time it was so dry the tobacco wilted and died. A lot has been set out the past two weeks and is a shriveled mess. Usually it's fairly tolerant of anything. It's better in the lower elevation areas near the river but on the higher ground here in Horry county it's bad.

The only thing in my garden that's come up are potatoes. No corn or beans showing any germination yet. Irrigation with municipal water is so expensive I've only done it sparingly for trees. Ponds are so low I'd be sucking pond scum to fill my water tanks. 2020 was our last "normal" spring in these parts and it seems like a distant memory now. Everything is so green in pictures from back then.
 
Here in Tallahassee, we are experiencing arguably one of the worst droughts in the last century. Rainfall dating back to Sept 1, 2025 (meteorological Fall) has only totaled up to 11.71 inches. That is 20 INCHES below what is considered normal or average over that stretch. Additionally, the 11.71 is a full 6 inches below the previous record low Sept 1 - Apr 18 stretch. Record warmth the past week + critically low RH has only made fuels more receptive to wildfire. We will need a tropical system or two this summer to get us back on track I'd think.

1000026414.png
There is also a Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory issued from the NIFC for the entire Southeast Region. They mention that precipitation totals averaged over the advisory region were the lowest since 1979:

 
Newman said:
Here in Tallahassee, we are experiencing arguably one of the worst droughts in the last century. Rainfall dating back to Sept 1, 2025 (meteorological Fall) has only totaled up to 11.71 inches. That is 20 INCHES below what is considered normal or average over that stretch. Additionally, the 11.71 is a full 6 inches below the previous record low Sept 1 - Apr 18 stretch. Record warmth the past week + critically low RH has only made fuels more receptive to wildfire. We will need a tropical system or two this summer to get us back on track I'd think.

View attachment 195546
There is also a Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory issued from the NIFC for the entire Southeast Region. They mention that precipitation totals averaged over the advisory region were the lowest since 1979:

Click to expand...

At KSAV, they’ve had their driest Jan 1-Apr 17 (3.3”) and 2nd driest Sep 1-Apr 17 (9.9”) to 1931-2 on record back to 1871-2:

 
I don’t know whether or not this was posted and figured this is as good place as any to post it. There’s a major GFS upgrade (v17) coming in Oct., which includes among many other things upgrades to its MJO forecasting.



The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) is proposing to upgrade the NWS
operational Global Forecast System (GFS) and Global Data Assimilation
System (GDAS) from v16 to v17 in October 2026. This upgrade will
transition the system to a fully coupled Earth-system modeling framework
for global weather prediction, improved model forecast performance, and
expanded, enhanced products that cover all components of the Earth
system. The NWS is seeking comments on the proposed changes to GFSv17
through May 15, 2026.
GFSv17 introduces a coupled Earth-system model with components of the
atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice, and waves.

- An increased horizontal resolution from C768 (13 km) to C1152 (9
km)using the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) dynamic core.
- Introduction of fractional grids along oceanic coastlines.
- Improved atmospheric and land surface parameterization schemes

 
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Radar indications, look like Slim to Nadda, on the Rain chances, for down here on the SENC Coastal plain..
Dust Devils & Dust (storms) look too be the norm here in our immediate future..

HEY! @GaWx , what did the precip look like (Here) in these parts & Georgia, (Or SouthEast in general), look like during the Dust Bowel during the 1930's? IN My whole life has NEVER see lack of rain EVER, like it is now.. (I'm 66 BTW)..
 
SENC said:
Radar indications, look like Slim to Nadda, on the Rain chances, for down here on the SENC Coastal plain..
Dust Devils & Dust (storms) look too be the norm here in our immediate future..

HEY! @GaWx , what did the precip look like (Here) in these parts & Georgia, (Or SouthEast in general), look like during the Dust Bowel during the 1930's? IN My whole life has NEVER see lack of rain EVER, like it is now.. (I'm 66 BTW)..
Click to expand...

I don't think I want to know what a "Dust Bowel" looked like. just sayin
 
SENC said:
Radar indications, look like Slim to Nadda, on the Rain chances, for down here on the SENC Coastal plain..
Dust Devils & Dust (storms) look too be the norm here in our immediate future..

HEY! @GaWx , what did the precip look like (Here) in these parts & Georgia, (Or SouthEast in general), look like during the Dust Bowel during the 1930's? IN My whole life has NEVER see lack of rain EVER, like it is now.. (I'm 66 BTW)..
Click to expand...

Moisture was lacking due to systems being pretty plugged up I think ;)

Seriously though, here’s the 1930s anomalies:

IMG_0204.png
 
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