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Pattern April Oven

Due to the coastal geography of Long Bay (SC) and Onslow Bay (NC) we get some incredibly strong seabreeze boundaries pretty much every day from mid-late April through about the first week of August. Once the shelf waters warm up enough they reduce quite a bit. I'm talking 20 mph or more sustained as it roars inland past I-95. The seabreeze effect isn't anywhere near as strong further up in NC and further south into the lowcountry of SC and GA.

A neat thing is due to the shape of the coast there's a convergence zone right around Bolivia, NC where the boundaries collide. That area is almost guaranteed a seabreeze generated storm during the summer.
We often get crashing seabreezes here in Wilmington as one comes north and one from the east
 
Pattern change is coming
I also believe that but we'll have to go through another two weeks of continued dry weather. Below is the 6z euro AI showing total QPF at day 12. Most other models also show a similar look.
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The longer range CFS shows the rains coming the following two weeks (weeks 3 & 4). This would be the pattern change.
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I also believe that but we'll have to go through another two weeks of continued dry weather. Below is the 6z euro AI showing total QPF at day 12. Most other models also show a similar look.
View attachment 195477

The longer range CFS shows the rains coming the following two weeks (weeks 3 & 4). This would be the pattern change.
View attachment 195478

1776081867174.png1776081884769.png
Euro suite was a banger minus the AI. Once we get the AN height anoms out of the mid latitudes it's probably going to turn the hose on.
 
dig the vort a little more and squeeze some april 20th snowflakes out in the high country. it's probably close enough to get flurries on mount rogers as is on the 00z euro

would be abnormal to get through all of april with zero high-elevation snow in the southern apps
 
So this happened right when I was going to work I had just driven through that area about 10 minutes earlier... just came out of nowhere

From what I can tell damage seems pretty minor but still it got crazy for a minute because nothing had been happening all night
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Spider-Man Man GIF
 
This is why I said that...
View attachment 195515
Ops are pretty volatile right now, it had less than .25 a few runs ago for 2 weeks. I'm more excited about the means slowly increasing the last few runs. 2 inches in 2 weeks is pretty normal for this time of year, I don't think we see a pattern to reverse the drought anytime soon but if we can just do average through the end of summer we would be fine
 
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That precip forecast combined with continued warmer than normal temps suggests if it does rain down here, I'd expect severe threats. SPC already has a day 3 enhanced risk in the Midwest. I'd expect that to get upgraded with such a wide swath.

Captura de Pantalla 2026-04-15 a la(s) 12.18.59 p.m..png
 
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