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Misc This Means WAR

Now we will get to see if Trump puts ground troops in or goes after the infrastructure like has threatened to do. I think the idea of nothing special happening is over. Iran will certainly not be opening the strait anytime soon. This is going to get REALLY ugly now unless we get a miracle.

Vance has left Pakistan so no more talks at that level will be happening.
 
GaWx said:
There was the Iran Deal done during the Obama Admin. that was in effect and had Iran’s nuclear weapons development constrained until DT had the US withdraw from it in 2018, likely due to his hate for Obama. These latest talks were trying to essentially get back to those constraints. Oh well.
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I don't think Trump has a choice now. He has to resume the war and pummel Iran and hope for the best.
 
JHS said:
Now we will get to see if Trump puts ground troops in or goes after the infrastructure like has threatened to do. I think the idea of nothing special happening is over. Iran will certainly not be opening the strait anytime soon. This is going to get REALLY ugly now unless we get a miracle.

Vance has left Pakistan so no more talks at that level will be happening.
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Nothing is going to happen. We don't have any bombs or missiles left for this. We are saving them all for when China invades Taiwan now because we wasted everything on Iran.
 
vtrap90 said:
for when China invades Taiwan
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I think that's not going to need to be a major worry for now at least and I would personally still favor that China still works on reunification non-militarily.

But I will say that if I'm going to be incorrect in the relative short-term (though it's more medium term), I think you'll start seeing more ship buildup in the south China sea in roughly probably about 24 months from here, I would figure.
 
It’s just a break per this:

Two Pakistani officials said discussions between the heads of the delegations will resume after a break. Some technical personnel from both teams are still meeting, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the press.

www.yahoo.com

US Vice President JD Vance says talks with Iran ended after 21 hours without reaching agreement

U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said negotiations ended early Sunday between the United States and Iran without a peace deal after the Iranians refused to accept American terms to not develop a nuclear...
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
 
just waiting to see what the clown says at 2am after his ufc fight
 
Its rather odd. So many twitter posts but no one wants to repost the 14 posts Trump posted on Truth Social in the last 24 hours here. Other than the one GaWx linked.
 
GaWx said:
There was the Iran Deal done during the Obama Admin. that was in effect and had Iran’s nuclear weapons development constrained until DT had the US withdraw from it in 2018, likely due to his hate for Obama. These latest talks were trying to essentially get back to those constraints. Oh well.
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One of the main arguments used against the JCPOA was that it allowed Iran to continue enriching uranium and move closer to nuclear capability while remaining technically in compliance. The JCPOA also contained so-called “sunset provisions” on various aspects of the deal such as lifting limits on centrifuges after 10 years or reduced enrichment beyond 3.67% only lasting for 15 years.
 
The talks are over for sure now. Both US and Iranian delegations have left Pakistan, not just the higher-level ones.

The end result: the regime survives, Iran keeps the strait closed, and worst of all Iran keeps their nuke program going.

The question now is what will Trump do. I have no clue what that'll be, but something will have to be done about the strait for sure. The world can not return to anything near normal until it is open.
 
Arcc said:
I'll just sit here and wait until everyone realizes that Iran *can't* keep the strait closed indefinitely.
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Yup. They're not in as good of a shape economically as some may think to do this. I've even seen some say they may be close to running out of water.

But the counterarguments I've seen is that there has already been enough severe damage to pipelines, etc in the Middle East to the point that there's going to be devastating economic consequences that include the entire world, including the US.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Yup. They're not in as good of a shape economically as some may think to do this. I've even seen some say they may be close to running out of water.

But the counterarguments I've seen is that there has already been enough severe damage to pipelines, etc in the Middle East to the point that there's going to be devastating economic consequences that include the entire world, including the US.
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That $2 million toll for each ship would balance a lot of this out.
 
Maybe this blockade can actually get something done unless the Iranians start attacking US ships, in which case things get ugly fast. If this is done right "maybe" this could be the way to get the regime in Iran to fall and really change things for all of the Middle East.
 
JHS said:
Give a reason why. The way I see it, they can do what they want, and no one will stop them.
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Because:

1: What is happening now. Their own oil will be blockaded out. No oil = economic collapse.

2: Your neighbors also rely on oil. Keep it closed and guess what? They eventually come for your head.
 
Nobody could possibly know where this proposed U.S. blockade of the Strait will take things as it’s way too complex a situation to predict. I describe it as “tremendous uncertainty” after making an already complex situation that much more complex.

I think it is akin to analog based forecasting of wx when there is no similar analog. There is no similar analog in this case imho. This isn’t Venezuela. This may work out well in the end, it may make things much worse, or it may lead to the most likely of somewhere in between. Nobody knows no matter what they say now. But hindsight is 20/20 and I expect many folks will later comment in hindsight (I knew that was a great move or I knew that was a terrible move) however it ends up.

Short term (tactical) US military goals have been met but what’s been highly questionable are longer term (strategic) goals being met. We’ll see how this blockade will affect the strategic landscape.
 
GaWx said:
Nobody could possibly know where this proposed U.S. blockade of the Strait will take things as it’s way too complex a situation to predict. I describe it as “tremendous uncertainty” after making an already complex situation that much more complex.

I think it is akin to analog based forecasting of wx when there is no similar analog. There is no similar analog in this case imho. This isn’t Venezuela. This may work out well in the end, it may make things much worse, or it may lead to the most likely of somewhere in between. Nobody knows no matter what they say now. But hindsight is 20/20 and I expect many folks will later comment in hindsight (I knew that was a great move or I knew that was a terrible move) however it ends up.
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I think it makes things alot less complex. A year long negotiation will result in a quick Iranian defeat.
 
Trump is starting to make the same threats from early last week again. So far, no deadlines though. Talking about the power grid, Iran's water and the bridges.
 
lexxnchloe said:
I think it will be the opposite.
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If this blockade works like I'm thinking it will only Iran's oil should be blocked while Saudi Arabia and the other countries can get their oil out. If things indeed work like this gas prices should come down. Of course, if Iran start's hitting our navy all bets are off.

2 more question marks are China and Russia. Neither of them wants to see Iran fall so if it looks like that'll happen, they may get much more involved. China is already thinking of sending anti-aircraft missiles to Iran. I cannot see Russia doing a lot though because of their war with the Ukraine.
 
JHS said:
If this blockade works like I'm thinking it will only Iran's oil should be blocked while Saudi Arabia and the other countries can get their oil out. If things indeed work like this gas prices should come down. Of course, if Iran start's hitting our navy all bets are off.

2 more question marks are China and Russia. Neither of them wants to see Iran fall so if it looks like that'll happen, they may get much more involved. China is already thinking of sending anti-aircraft missiles to Iran. I cannot see Russia doing a lot though because of their war with the Ukraine.
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The way to deal with China is simple. Dont let any oil going to China leave the Gulf.
 
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