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Pattern April Oven

JB in recent days finally gave up on a cold E US overall 3/15-4/15. So, he’s admitting defeat regarding his forecast for an overall chilly March in the E US. He got the first week of this period right, regardless, which included a cold St. Patrick’s Day. But he’s given up on an overall cold Holy Week/Easter.

However, he’s now saying, “I think there’s going to be a lot of cold air develop in April across the United States.” He’s basing this partially on the prospect of MJO in phases 2-3, which he said tend to be cold in April. (I haven’t done my own research on that.) He’s also basing it on the prospects for a -NAO and -EPO as well as a “crash” of the SOI after the TCs are done. So, he’s expecting “quite the trough” mid to late April in the E US.

We’ll see although I’d sure love for him to be right about mid to late April!
 
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Decent trends overnight with a step back toward cooler likely wetter as we get past 4/5 or so. Always have to be concerned that we flip the teeter totter too far and we get into a dry NW flow. Regardless it looks like we may finally dump these subtropical ridges across the CONUS and get into a more active regime.
 
I didn’t see the April thread when I first posted this in the March thread. So, I deleted it there and will instead leave it here:

With no summer 2026 thread yet (there’s only a tropics thread so far), I’ll put this here. This is from pro-met Travis Hartman of Vaisala Xweather:

What kind of summer are we walking into?

For 2026, the early answer is: another warmer-than-normal season in the US and Europe with important regional caveats.

Ocean signals point to warmth
A major driver of the expected heat is the ocean. Global sea surface temperatures remain historically warm, and the North Atlantic is firmly in its positive multidecadal phase, also known as warmer-than-average Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (+AMO). In plain terms, the Atlantic has been running hot for decades, and warm oceans amplify heat on land. A warmer Atlantic tends to pump up the Bermuda High, helping lock in warmer conditions across the Eastern US.

Enter El Niño—but with nuance
Models suggest that El Niño will develop through the summer. Historically, El Niño can take some of the edge off the heat in the Midwest and East by shifting the jet stream. But whether that cooling influence is realized depends on an unlikely character: West Pacific typhoons. Their recurving paths can tug on the jet stream in ways that promote cooler conditions across the US. Fewer typhoons, on the other hand, leave the hotter background state unchallenged. And recent decades have seen a trend toward fewer summer typhoons overall.

So, what does this mean for 2026?
The forecast calls for summer 2026 to rank as the 11th-hottest since 1950, with the strongest confidence in significant heat across the West and South. The Midwest and East are the wild cards—torn between ocean-driven warmth and the possibility (but not the guarantee) of El Niño-related moderation.
 
WFFaithful said:
Rain chances for the back half of the week have evaporated.
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We are going to repeat 1993 I'm afraid, only much worse this time. Going into that summer we had normal to above normal rainfall in late 1992 and in Feb and March. Not so this time.

We only had a grand total of .33 of rain here from June 1 through August 31 in 1993 and I would not be shocked if it repeated this summer.
 
Been waiting to hear/see some long range posts about this looming severe drought that seems to be coming our way.
Seems like everyone may be sick of the war thread being the only thing updated on a weather forum if I had to guess. . .

With
no spring but a few intermittent days I feel like this is going to be a brutal summer and we hadn't been able to count on the tropics for much relief for years now
 
Even out here im very much wait and see. Yeah I know it seems better than over there but

The model maps have not been kind to us in awhile even back in January the one winter storm we had they didn't really verify

Lot of people on Facebook are warning that it's very hard to break a pattern like this and the only thing that's been impressive since like October is warm and dry
 
SD said:
If we could pull in better moisture this pattern would probably fire off some daily afternoon showers/storms. It looks very similar to a disturbed summer pattern aloft
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drought map doesn't help a ton with this either
 
SD said:
If we could pull in better moisture this pattern would probably fire off some daily afternoon showers/storms. It looks very similar to a disturbed summer pattern aloft
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I was thinking the same thing looking at the forecast yesterday. With a Bermuda high parked offshore, at least the coastal counties may see some sea breeze showers and thunderstorms. Some areas will see scattered showers and thunderstorms during the period.
 
Exciting day for space enthusiasts tomorrow!

Live updates: Will Artemis II launch tomorrow? Florida's weather outlook and mission status updates

LIVE UPDATES
Last Update May 1, 2026 at 10:44 PM EDT
NASA is targeting an April 1 launch for the historic Artemis II mission, with meteorologists currently tracking a favorable 80% "Go" weather forecast at Florida's Kennedy Space Center. Follow our live coverage for real-time radar analysis, countdown milestones, and the latest mission status as four astronauts prepare for humanity's first crewed journey to the Moon in over 50 years.

www.foxweather.com

Live updates: Will Artemis II launch tomorrow? Florida's weather outlook and mission status updates

NASA is targeting an April 1 launch for the historic Artemis II mission, with meteorologists currently tracking a favorable 80% "Go" weather forecast at Florida's Kennedy Space Center. Follow our live coverage for real-time radar analysis, countdown milestones, and the latest mission status as...
www.foxweather.com www.foxweather.com
 
Seems like every time we get a signal that we might hang a front up and stall a high in the right place to really rain the pattern eventually corrects to a stronger EC trough, next week is a classic example. We may end up with another frost/freeze threat though, yay.

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Unlike most here, I think the Summer will be average or slightly below average for the SE. Rain could be sparse either way unless a Tropical system moves or way in June. I think the warmest part of the US will be upper Midwest and West (per average) this summer with drought persisting in the Central and SE US. Long range forecasts are a crap shoot so take this with a grain (or ton) of salt but I am optimistic on the temperatures at least
 
NoSnowATL said:
2012ish
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We had more rain in the winter and spring that year and I believe this summer will be drier than that and maybe hotter. NOT breaking all time records, but higher temps spread out over more time. 2012 was not THAT bad except for that late June through July 1 stretch.
 
SD said:
tell us what rain is like when you get it
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It will be interesting just to see because like some of the globals have more rain that we've had combined in months in the next 10 days

It's been almost 4 weeks since the last time too
 
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