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Pattern Fab Feb

End of the GFS continues to want to go back to our previous pattern. EPS looks like it's trying to step in that direction. But there's not a whole lot of value looking at the end of those runs, especially when we have another snowstorm to track in the middle of our warmup.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1804800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1718400.png
 
I don’t have any scientific basis for saying this, so feel free to give me the beatdown, but I get the sense that something changed last year at some point with respect to how our weather is behaving, most notably in the winter. I think we're going back to overall colder and snowier winters in the US, particularly in the East. And I think models are going to struggle picking up on it in the LR.

Maybe it has to do with ocean current changes or the magnetic pole excursion or something else, or maybe I'm completely wrong. I don't know, but it just feels like something changed.
 
Chazwin said:
Surprised that run didn’t have that snowfall footprint spread more north. The low track is textbook for a Gulf low to bring to snow to CLT metro. Right along the Gulf coast and entering the Atlantic near Jacksonville
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Climo wise the L positioning is definitely more favorable well north of that footprint, but looking at the energy maps, that is an ULL/bowling ball again if it were to play out that way which limits precip, I believe. It works I guess, but temps are very borderline.

I also don’t think the 6z Euro would’ve repeated that run if it went further. Had too much energy together in the west.

And yeah, it looks like it’s only going to get in the 70’s twice during the work week. Hurray.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don’t have any scientific basis for saying this, so feel free to give me the beatdown, but I get the sense that something changed last year at some point with respect to how our weather is behaving, most notably in the winter. I think we're going back to overall colder and snowier winters in the US, particularly in the East. And I think models are going to struggle picking up on it in the LR.

Maybe it has to do with ocean current changes or the magnetic pole excursion or something else, or maybe I'm completely wrong. I don't know, but it just feels like something changed.
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The water vapor from the Tongan volcano finally cooked off.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don’t have any scientific basis for saying this, so feel free to give me the beatdown, but I get the sense that something changed last year at some point with respect to how our weather is behaving, most notably in the winter. I think we're going back to overall colder and snowier winters in the US, particularly in the East. And I think models are going to struggle picking up on it in the LR.

Maybe it has to do with ocean current changes or the magnetic pole excursion or something else, or maybe I'm completely wrong. I don't know, but it just feels like something changed.
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Agreed. It certainly seems like we have stepped back into 2000-04 type winters. Not ready to go as far as pre 1990 winters but maybe. Its just nice to not have an all you can eat buffet of western troughs
 
I will just say and I could be totally wrong about this, but it’s looking like next weekend there might be something interesting to track and watch for. And then the rest of February while it does seem that we may warm up maybe for a couple of days it really seems like we’re going to be in a colder pattern. Maybe I’m wrong. What are you guys think?


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Rain Cold said:
I don’t have any scientific basis for saying this, so feel free to give me the beatdown, but I get the sense that something changed last year at some point with respect to how our weather is behaving, most notably in the winter. I think we're going back to overall colder and snowier winters in the US, particularly in the East. And I think models are going to struggle picking up on it in the LR.

Maybe it has to do with ocean current changes or the magnetic pole excursion or something else, or maybe I'm completely wrong. I don't know, but it just feels like something changed.
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Agreed. Something has shifted. We back..for a decade.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don’t have any scientific basis for saying this, so feel free to give me the beatdown, but I get the sense that something changed last year at some point with respect to how our weather is behaving, most notably in the winter. I think we're going back to overall colder and snowier winters in the US, particularly in the East. And I think models are going to struggle picking up on it in the LR.

Maybe it has to do with ocean current changes or the magnetic pole excursion or something else, or maybe I'm completely wrong. I don't know, but it just feels like something changed.
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-PDO going away I think. Been there awhile. Like 10-15yrs
 
Rain Cold said:
I don’t have any scientific basis for saying this, so feel free to give me the beatdown, but I get the sense that something changed last year at some point with respect to how our weather is behaving, most notably in the winter. I think we're going back to overall colder and snowier winters in the US, particularly in the East. And I think models are going to struggle picking up on it in the LR.

Maybe it has to do with ocean current changes or the magnetic pole excursion or something else, or maybe I'm completely wrong. I don't know, but it just feels like something changed.
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Something in the background has changed. I’m not smart enough to know what exactly it is but it’s just that gut feeling that after that gulf coast snowstorm something kind of reset. Weather is so complex that there may not even be a logical explanation but I’m sure someone here can get close. Could be the -PDO going away who knows. That does fit with about how long winter has sucked around here.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don’t have any scientific basis for saying this, so feel free to give me the beatdown, but I get the sense that something changed last year at some point with respect to how our weather is behaving, most notably in the winter. I think we're going back to overall colder and snowier winters in the US, particularly in the East. And I think models are going to struggle picking up on it in the LR.

Maybe it has to do with ocean current changes or the magnetic pole excursion or something else, or maybe I'm completely wrong. I don't know, but it just feels like something changed.
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I wouldn't disagree. I moved to the beach and thought my winter weather watching was over but I've seen wintry precip close to a dozen times and back to back years with 6 inches or more.

Also seeing unheard of solar activity with the aurora being seen further south than at any time in my life that I can remember
 
Something is definitely weird this year... I mean when we've had more snow than Amarillo(which averages 10 more inches than us) and many other snowier places out west yeah...

It's been in the 60s all week in Colorado

I never imagined a winter like that here
 
jackendrickwx said:
Excited for my 0.2" to 4.1" of rain/sleet/ice/snow/hail/thunder whatever. You have to toss a chance of showers into the forecast basically daily from WED-onward over here. Next Sunday AIFS is a wet cutter and the Euro was a Summerville Slammer.


View attachment 193833
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Just lots of nrn stream driven slop until srn stream system next weekend. Makes for annoying forecasting. Basically every day next week is trending cooler in the Carolinas from what I looked at this morning. Monday wudge. Weird touchy NE/SW temp gradient for days
 
Rain Cold said:
I don’t have any scientific basis for saying this, so feel free to give me the beatdown, but I get the sense that something changed last year at some point with respect to how our weather is behaving, most notably in the winter. I think we're going back to overall colder and snowier winters in the US, particularly in the East. And I think models are going to struggle picking up on it in the LR.

Maybe it has to do with ocean current changes or the magnetic pole excursion or something else, or maybe I'm completely wrong. I don't know, but it just feels like something changed.
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I remember someone brought this up last year referencing sun spot activity.

1770475701020.png

This is from Wikipedia so you know grain of salt, but it is interesting and is referring to the Maunder Minimum.

1770475815305.png
We should be moving into our next minimum through the second half of the decade.

1770476753769.png
 
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Disco_Lemonade said:
I remember someone brought this up last year referencing sun spot activity.

View attachment 193834

This is from Wikipedia so you know grain of salt, but it is interesting and is referring to the Maunder Minimum.

View attachment 193835
We should be moving into our next minimum through the second half of the decade.

View attachment 193838
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Solar doesn’t have a ton of influence on our weather though. Especially considering we’re not even at the minimum.
 
SandySpringswx said:
Looks like another snowless season in ATL.
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How much did you get last year? I know many say it can’t snow past mid February but that’s not true. Sure it won’t stick around like earlier snow but we can still get good ones well into March and we are overdue.
 
SandySpringswx said:
Looks like another snowless season in ATL.
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Hate to say it but I grew up 2 hours west of ATL and most years were pretty much snowless as a kid

I think y'all paid for 93 for a long time haha maybe still are

Probably paying for the Gulf storm last year now. Those things don't come around very often over there unfortunately
 
EmersonGA said:
How much did you get last year? I know many say it can’t snow past mid February but that’s not true. Sure it won’t stick around like earlier snow but we can still get good ones well into March and we are overdue.
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Well I "grew up" in South Atlanta near to Hartsfield and I remember what was the second highest snowfall for ATL on March 24 1983 when we got about 8.5 inches in an overnight "surprise" snowstorm.
 
I remember my parents driving to the mountains over there several times to see the only snow of the winter and there's still winters I have absolutely no memory of anything. I never saw snow with any consistency over there... Or until I moved to Oklahoma

Honestly I think y'all have been relatively lucky the last couple years that it hasn't been limited to the mountains

But yeah it's not over yet.... Totally true
 
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