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Misc General Banter Thread

I am back from @snowc-alt yall. We are so back regarding snow! AND NO outages to worry about, so I am like Mr. Krabs... JACKPOT!
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@SD Thanks for moving to banter.
 
DopplerWx said:
Yea it’s scary af for rdu folks, you can boom but you can bust big. I love where I’m at in clt a solid floor
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Seems like you really can’t lose in the CLT area. You all deserve it, it’s been forever since you all got a good snowfall.
 
Please stop putting all your faith in a 48 hour NAM. You know that model isn’t accurate more than a day out. The dry slot potential is real but it slots in a straight line. Slots are usually in a circle 😭
 
TheWeatherDriver said:
Please stop putting all your faith in a 48 hour NAM. You know that model isn’t accurate more than a day out. The dry slot potential is real but it slots in a straight line. Slots are usually in a circle 😭
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It may appear that way on a radar presentation because the beam is hitting different heights the further it goes out.. but it’s a dry “slot” for a reason
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Unfortunately for us, when you're on the fringe, slight adjustments means all the world in determining if we even see snow or not. I expect this to continue through verification.
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Bigly agree. Last winter my location carried the weight for N GA and snow so I just assume this year is the gods evening things out, haha.
 
Brad P’s. Initial forecast is very conservative, he led with that. 2”-5” for the Charlotte area and for now is is concerned with dry pockets mixing in. He did say he would adjust as needed.
 
I think people on the forum needs to remember. We're in a drought. Nearly all of the systems this winter have underperformed their QPF modeled forecasts. We're relying on a northern stream s/w(albeit a strong one that closes off) that are already infamous for being dry. Brent last week was modeled and forecasted for over a foot of snow in Tulsa and only got 5 inches or so because of how dry the arctic airmass was despite deep moisture transport from the Baja s/w. People really need to temper expectations here. "Expect nothing. Be surprised with something." should be the common motto here especially if you live in Georgia, less so in the Carolinas.
 
packfan98 said:
I don’t know @KyloG. Having this map with over 48hrs to go should be a lock for more precip up and down the 85 corridor for us. Hints that the coastal will be hugging in a little closer too maybe?
View attachment 191229
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My house is literally under that precip min of .29-.33 in western Wake...😂

Luckily the stock market is imploding and my short is working...takes away this sting.

But...I'm just hoping for 2" of snow...so roughly need .15" of QPF. I don't feel great about that....I am ready for this pattern to collapse and head into spring.
 
Rain Cold said:
Very minor changes in the strength, location, and tilt of that upper low have significant implications. Models are still all over the place with it.

I've mentioned this in my videos a couple of times. Right now, I'm not buying the Bahama low scenario. I think closer to the GS is the way to go. Still got a lot to figure out though.

These systems can be real heartbreakers, but they are really fun to watch evolve and see how all of the dynamics come together. They can also end up being really special.
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You have a YouTube channel?
 
LovingGulfLows said:
I think people on the forum needs to remember. We're in a drought. Nearly all of the systems this winter have underperformed their QPF modeled forecasts. We're relying on a northern stream s/w(albeit a strong one that closes off) that are already infamous for being dry. Brent last week was modeled and forecasted for over a foot of snow in Tulsa and only got 5 inches or so because of how dry the arctic airmass was despite deep moisture transport from the Baja s/w. People really need to temper expectations here. "Expect nothing. Be surprised with something." should be the common motto here especially if you live in Georgia, less so in the Carolinas.
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Heck with this supposed to be a cold snow again, I'm not overly confident in what we see pan out. I enjoyed late Jan last year, but it took a late band coming in to push me to warning criteria.

Whoever doesn't see the banding may struggle to get more than a dusting to an inch.
 
SimeonNC said:
We're eating so good with this storm that people are whining about only getting 5 inches on the models instead of biblical amounts lol.

For the RDU people, calm down lol.
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Trends are clear. Last weekend we down trended qpf until 0 hour. This is occurring again. Yes the GFS shows 5” but that is less than the run before that and the one before that and the one before that and the one before that lol
 
packfan98 said:
I don’t know @KyloG. Having this map with over 48hrs to go should be a lock for more precip up and down the 85 corridor for us. Hints that the coastal will be hugging in a little closer too maybe?
View attachment 191229
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Right now I think, at least for Raleigh...objectively

10% chance of blanked
20% chance of 1" or less
40% chance of 1-2"
20% chance of 3-5"
10% chance of 6"+

If I had to put something out...

Raleigh - 2-3"
GSO - 3-5"
CLT - 6-8"
GSP - 6-8"
CAE - 4-6"
Eastern NC - 6-8"
 
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