Brett
Member
Would that include into Virginia or south of there just wondering?
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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)
- Thread starter GeorgiaGirl
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
If the precip band doesn't die, you should be able to get some.
That would be awesome. My kids would love it.
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The upper system closing off or tilting negative farther west.
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Avalanche
Member
Shane will you explain to me how this is a Miller A vs Miller B? I can take to Banter or other if necessary. Thanks!!!
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
That is the way the trend is going right now right?
And that argues for much more precipitation inland over AL GA and into the Carolinas
That band would be better if Nam is right. Euro didn't look as good (trending much better ) as this run of Nam did and we got like a dusting
RollTide18
Member
Hope the Euro keeps that run that showed an .5 to 1" over South AL/GA
Snowflowxxl
Member
I’m pulling for middle GA and SC this time around. They have been screwed this winter. Northern Bama also I believe
SCweather
Member
Hoping youre right. Clinging to hope here in Columbia.
Shane will do a better job of explaining I know.... but basically the precip generated to our west is from the Upper level energy that eventually spawns the coastal slp, there isn't a slp that rides inland and then transfers energy to a coastal which would be a miller b.
MichaelJ
Member
No, just the Eastern third part of it. Western NC/SC and Ga look to be out of it and Central parts are on the back edge of it currently. This looks suspiciously close to the system that went through recently and just missed parts of Raleigh and in the Triad had a WWA and got nary a flake west of Burlington
ForsythSnow
Moderator
FWIW the 12Z ICON is SW of its last run. Seems like a good start.
MichaelJ
Member
This is a catch 22 if it does come west, then WAA gets involved in the Eastern part and if it stays East they would do fine but the Western sections would get virtually nothing at all. Really hard to get precip that stays snow over the bulk of NC/SC especially
Jon
Member
IMO the low center won’t get anywhere close enough to the coast for WAA. This event lacks moisture which in the end will help more than hurt.
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Cary_Snow95
Member
You can access better maps on TT. Even the H5Appears to hold precip together better as it crosses the Apps with good re-development further west
farleydawg792
Member
Sitting in the "leeward side north GA hole zone" here in Athens. We can only hope for the band to hold longer and not dry out.
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And actually I'm an idiot.... I was posting the 06z maps anyway. Doh!
Cary_Snow95
Member
No worries man it’s still early. The energy is def sw this run
MichaelJ
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The ICON skipped over me, go figure, but it's a little skip, not a 50 mile to 100 mile one. One more run and it's solid until it reaches the Carolinas.
You could argue that there are some Miller B qualities to this system with the snow to our west the the coastal formation. However there really is no clipper low that transfers energy to a southeast coastal low. The SE coastal low spawns as the upper trough tilts/closes and the polar jet dives deep into the region and you get some enhancement from the subtropical jet. To me that makes the SE low independent from any original clipper low and a Miller A
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ICON is looking better at 12Z...It's trying to rebuild the band across South Central AL/into GA at hour 72. Energy is further SW even compared to the NAM.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Time to start keeping track of the SR models. Here's the HRRRX at 36. Looks better than the ICON and NAM at this hour. This can be our first test of the HRRRX VS the HRRR.
Cary_Snow95
Member
ICON closes off like the NAM
SCweather
Member
ICON has a nice band of moisture but keeps temps a lot more marginal for a lot of areas. Especially in SC
That's the 0z Euro, the NAM and now the ICON.... not a bad combination
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Yea icon looks good.. although precip type showing as rain for clt to start.
RollTide18
Member
Thats kinda what the Euro did as well
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah precip isn't a problem at all on it, the problem is it looks like all rain after crossing the lake.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Oh yeah, we are supposed to hit 50 Tuesday . We will probably get plenty of moisture, and rain
GFS tried to keep the line alive from earlier runs.
Massive qpf increase on ICON over last 3 runs
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SCweather
Member
Wouldn't that be something... finally get the moisture then run into temp problems.
SCweather
Member
Well precip definitely was a problem at first and still in a way probably is until we get more and more trends for more coming in. Now we fight off temp issues.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
It's odd, as the ICON is +9 on the GFS. The GFS would be workable (as in it'd go down in time) if there was precip and there isn't.
Storm5
Member
ICON being talked about like it's the new Euro.
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WXinCanton
Member
